Canada

Historical emissions data is from Canada’s latest national inventory and covers the period up to 2024 (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2026a).

2030 NDC target

We calculate a 40-45% reduction from base year emissions (2005), excluding LULUCF, and then subtract the projected LULUCF contribution in 2030. The LULUCF contribution takes the minimum and maximum from our range of estimates, including the average over the last 10 to 15 years (-18 and -11 MtCO₂e, respectively), the trend over the last 10 to 15 years (-31 and -40 MtCO₂e, respectively), and the values in the government’s 2025 emissions projections (-25 MtCO₂e). Canada’s estimated sink contributions are lower than the government’s previous estimates of -28 MtCO₂e and -32 MtCO₂e in its 2024 and 2023 emissions projections, respectively (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2023c; Government of Canada, 2024a).

The reason we include our own estimates for the LULUCF contribution is that, according to Canada’s 2025 emissions projections, the LULUCF Accounting Contribution, which is used by the government for target setting and evaluation, has historically been both a source and a sink. To account for the uncertainty in the government’s LULUCF projections, we added our own simplified estimates and show a range within which the expected values may fall.

2035 NDC target

Canada has committed to reducing emissions by 45–50% below 2005 levels by 2035. Canada calculates its target using a “gross-net” approach, meaning that the 2005 emissions level excludes the LULUCF sector, while its targeted emissions level in 2035 includes a specific subset of emissions from the LULUCF sector called the “Accounting Contribution.”

The CAT excludes LULUCF emissions for its NDC target assessment. To remove the LULUCF emissions in 2035, we estimate the level of the Accounting Contribution Canada plans to use in 2035 based on government projections and trends in historical data over the last 15 years.

Removing the estimated Accounting Contribution from Canada’s 2035 target results in an estimated emissions level of between 392–470 MtCO₂e in 2035.

Our current policy projection is based on the Canadian Climate Institute’s “Implemented policies as of December 2025” scenario from their February 2026 independent assessment of the federal government’s 2025 progress report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, harmonised to the latest available year (2024) (Linden-Fraser et al., 2026).

We rely on this independent assessment rather than the federal government’s own “with measures” scenario from their 2025 progress report for several reasons. First, the official projections only include policies implemented up to November 2025 and therefore miss two key measures that were finalised in December 2025 – enhanced methane regulations in the upstream oil and gas sector and new landfill methane regulations. The Institute’s modelling of the enhanced oil and gas methane regulations also takes into account policy changes that are expected to undermine the effectiveness of the regulations, namely agreements under the November 2025 Memorandum of Understanding between the federal government and the province of Alberta. In the Memorandum of Understanding, the federal government announced its intention to negotiate an equivalency agreement with Alberta, which would allow provincial regulations that deliver a 75% methane reduction below 2014 levels by 2035 to replace the federal standard in the province. On this basis, the Institute’s implemented policies scenario assumes that other oil-and-gas-producing provinces – except for British Columbia, which has its own legislated 75% reduction by 2030 – will similarly seek equivalency agreements that defer the 75% target to 2035. As a result, the Institute’s projections more reflect the risk that announced methane ambition for 2030 will, in practice, be delayed or weakened in key provinces.

We also adjusted this current policy scenario to account for recent policy changes in the transport sector. In February 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a new auto strategy that repeals the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard (the federal ZEV sales mandate) and proposes to replace it with stronger GHG emissions standards to put Canada on a path to achieve 75% EV sales by 2035 and 90% by 2040, paired with consumer rebates. The previous ZEV mandate had committed to 20% ZEV sales by 2026, 60% ZEV sales by 2030, and 100% by 2035, though the federal government suspended the 2026 requirement in September 2025. In the Institute’s implemented policies scenario, the 2026 requirement is suspended, but the post-2026 ZEV schedule is assumed to remain in place. However, as of August 2026, the entire mandate has been formally repealed. The Institute also provides two announced policy scenarios – a more- and less-stringent variant. In the announced, less stringent case, the sales mandate is fully repealed, and in the more stringent case, the ZEV mandate is delayed by five years, ultimately achieving 60% ZEV sales by 2035 and 100% by 2040.

For our current policy projection, we adopt the Institute’s Implemented as of December 2025 scenario as the basis, but replace the passenger vehicle pathway with the “announced, less stringent” and “announced, more stringent” variants to generate a range. Given that the replacement GHG emissions standards have not yet been finalised, we consider it appropriate to present a conservative trajectory without any additional stringent regulations alongside a more optimistic pathway in which new standards successfully drive strong EV uptake. However, in 2030 the difference between these two pathways is minimal (0.2 Mt CO₂e).

With these transport sector adjustments, we consider our current policy projection to be an up-to-date, but still somewhat optimistic, depiction of the policy landscape as of 2026. The scenario assumes timely implementation of existing policies, whereas in practice, actual outcomes are likely to be shaped by factors such as the design and enforcement of equivalency agreements, the stringency and timelines of new vehicle regulations, and ongoing provincial-federal negotiations over climate policy. While the precise impact of these implementation risks is difficult to quantify, they represent a non-trivial likelihood that actual emissions under current policies could exceed our projections.

We do not include any contribution from LULUCF in our estimates.

Our planned policy projection is based on the Canadian Climate Institute’s analysis of the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding, which we use to derive a range for future emissions outcomes under planned policies (Sawyer, 2026b). These projections are harmonised to the last historical emissions year of 2024.

The Institute’s analysis models two scenarios for the MOU against a reference case representing current policies implemented as of December 2025. Both scenarios include the MOU’s reduced benchmark-tightening rates for Alberta’s large emitters, the extension of the Clean Electricity Regulations to Alberta with extended end-of-life provisions for gas-fired power generation, 1.4 million barrels per day of additional oil production to fill planned expanded pipeline capacity, and carbon capture subsidies and investment tax credits.

The main different between these two scenarios is whether Alberta’s industrial carbon pricing system functions as intended. In the more optimistic scenario, the MOU’s administered carbon price floor is binding, requiring carbon credits to be retired at or above the regulated floor from 2030 onward. In the less optimistic scenario, the carbon price floor does not bind. Weaker benchmark tightening reduces compliance demand for carbon credits by approximately 30 per cent in 2030 and 60 per cent in 2040. The difference between these two scenarios is 7 Mt in 2030 and 14 Mt in 2035.

We consider the range of emissions reductions from these less and more stringent announced policy scenarios to provide a realistic range for Canada’s planned policy pathway, including the country’s planned expansion of oil and gas production and infrastructure.

We do not include any contribution from LULUCF in our estimates.

Canada’s net zero strategy assumes a 100 MtCO₂e sink in 2050 to assist with achieving the country’s net zero target. We use this value for the residual emissions to calculate their net zero target excluding LULUCF (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2022c).

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for all its figures and time series unless stated otherwise. Assessments completed prior to June 2025 used GWP values from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and those completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).