Chile

Chile’s submitted its updated 2020 NDC to the UNFCCC in April 2020 (Government of Chile, 2020a). It includes two 2030 emissions reduction targets: an absolute unconditional target of 95 MtCO2e or a budget of 1,100 MtCO2e (2020–2030) and an emissions reduction target of up to 45% net GHG emissions conditional on specific financial, markets, technological and political conditions. With the approval of the Climate Change Framework Law in June 2020, this target is legally binding.

Chile also announced a net zero GHG target for 2050 which was enshrined in law in June 2022 with the passing of the Framework Law on Climate Change (Congreso Nacional de Chile, 2022).

On 9 April 2020, the Chilean government officially submitted its updated NDC (Government of Chile, 2020a), which is more ambitious than its first NDC submitted to the UNFCCC in 2017 and also slightly more ambitious than an earlier 2019 draft NDC. We rate both Chile’s conditional 2030 NDC target against modelled domestic pathways and its unconditional target against its fair-share contributions to be “Almost sufficient”. Chile needs to make some improvements to its targets if it aims to become compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5° limit.

According to our calculations, by implementing all its current policies, Chile has already peaked its emissions ahead of the proposed peak year of 2025 ─ which would be a remarkable achievement and makes the country a frontrunner in climate action. Under this scenario, the GHG emissions budget between 2020 and 2030 would be in line with the GHG emissions budget of 1,100 presented in the 2020 NDC, according to our calculations.

The updated NDC is stronger in various ways:

• It has a target of 95 MtCO2e in 2030, which is 2 MtCO2e lower than the 2019 draft NDC and significantly lower than the emissions that would have resulted from the 2017 unconditional target (131 MtCO2e);
• It includes an updated goal to peak GHG emissions by 2025, two years earlier than the previous draft;
• It includes an updated GHG emissions budget to 2030, which is smaller than the original draft.

Both the unconditional and conditional NDCs include the following three targets for the LULUCF sector:

• Sustainable management and recovery of 200,000 hectares of native forest, equivalent to GHG emissions capture between 0.9 and 1.2 MtCO2e/year by 2030;
• Reforestation of 200,000 hectares of forest, from which at least half correspond to permanent forest coverage, from which at least 70,000 hectares should be native species. This is equivalent to GHG emissions capture of 3–3.4 MtCO2e/year by 2030;
• Reduce emissions from deforestation and land degradation of native forest by 25% by 2030 compared to average emissions between 2001–2013.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 16.10.2019 “Chile submitted a draft NDC update in 2019”
• 09.04.2020 “Chile submitted an NDC update”

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against indicative national emissions from global least-cost emission pathways ("modelled domestic pathways"). Most developing countries may need support to achieve emissions reductions in line with their share of a global least-cost pathway to achieving the 1.5°C long-term temperature goal.

Chile has put forward two targets in its NDC: one that it will achieve using its own resources, and one that is conditional on specific financial, markets, technological and political conditions and may require international support. We rate the country’s unconditional target against its fair share contribution and its conditional target, which Chile refers to as its ‘internationally supported’ target, against the level of reductions needed according to the modelled domestic pathways.

We rate Chile’s 2030 conditional NDC target – a reduction of up to 45% in net emissions by 2030, subject to international support – as “Almost sufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. This rating indicates that Chile’s conditional target in 2030 is not yet consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements.

If all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C. To improve its rating and be consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit, Chile could increase the ambition of its conditional 2030 climate target equivalent to an absolute emissions limit of 78 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF in 2030 and, if necessary, outline the international support that it would need to achieve it.

While Chile does not explicitly ask for international finance, the NDC states that the 45% reduction target is conditional on specific financial, markets, technological and political conditions. On balance, however, the CAT methodology shows that provision of a small amount of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals.

The 2020 NDC links the 2030 target to the long-term goal for GHG neutrality by 2050, as well as to planning processes involving governance and existing and future strategies, including the “Long-term Climate Strategy 2050.” According to the NDC text, the current NDC planning and update process should allow for the NDC and its consecutive iterations to be intermediate milestones to achieve the 2050 neutrality goal, i.e. taking into account the necessary measures to reach the goal (Government of Chile, 2020a).

It also includes a target to reduce black carbon emissions by at least 25% by 2030 below 2016 emission levels.

Black Carbon and Chile’s NDC

Chile’s 2020 NDC update includes a target to reduce black carbon emissions, which has substantial co-benefits for human health. However, reductions in black carbon are generally not additional to reductions in CO2, because large fractions of black carbon emissions stem from the same emission sources as CO2. Emission reduction policies therefore often reduce CO2 and black carbon simultaneously, and this is already included in calculations of the emissions reductions required to hold warming well below 2°C globally, like the “emissions gap” and “fair share” reductions (see section on Fair Share).

In its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the IPCC does not provide calculations of Global Warming Potential for black carbon comparable to those provided for greenhouse gases. The report indicates a net-positive effect on warming of black carbon over time and concludes that reducing black carbon emissions in the short-term would contribute to limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C.

For information on Chile’s 2019 draft NDC or its original submission in 2017, see our comparison assessment of Chile’s NDCs and the previous country assessment of the 2017 NDC submission.

We rate Chile’s 2030 unconditional NDC target as “Almost sufficient ” when compared to its fair-share contribution to climate action. The “Almost sufficient ” rating indicates that Chile’s unconditional target in 2030 is not yet consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. Chile’s target is within the range of what is considered to be a fair global effort, but would require other countries to make deeper reductions and comparably greater effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

The unconditional NDC target rating has changed from “Insufficient” to “Almost sufficient”. However, this change is due to a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, which aligns our equity approaches with international environmental law (Rajamani et al., 2021) and therefore exclude studies based on cost-effectiveness; we also include additional studies to reflect the latest research available in the field. The change of ratings does not represent improved climate ambition, compared to our previous assessment.

We evaluate the net zero target as: Acceptable.

Chile announced its net zero target for 2050 as proposed legislation in the Framework Law on Climate Change in 2020 (President of Chile, 2020) and included it in the updated NDC submitted to the UNFCCC in the same year (Government of Chile, 2020b). In November 2021, the target was also included in the LTS and, since June 2022, it is enshrined in law with the passing of the Framework Law on Climate Change (Congreso Nacional de Chile, 2022).

Chile’s net zero target covers most key elements. It covers all sectors and gases, communicates strategic goals and emissions targets per sector, and provides a detailed methodological framework. Notably, Chile underpins these sector-specific ambitions with detailed emissions pathway analyses and budgets. While Chile does not actively outline any plans to rely on reductions and removals outside its borders, future iterations of its NDC could explicitly rule out international credits.

Chile could further improve its net zero target by considering good practice standards for a few elements. It could include international aviation and shipping in its target’s scope, and explicitly elaborate on fairness considerations.

For the full analysis click here.