Colombia

Colombia has stepped up as a global climate leader, marked by ambitious commitments, a surge in solar PV capacity expansion, record-high sales of electric vehicles, and a sharp decline in deforestation in recent years. Yet, its implementation still lags far behind its ambition. While internal obstacles such as governance challenges and social tensions play a role, Colombia’s implementation gap is largely shaped by constraints beyond its borders, particularly existing pressures on sovereign debt and a global financial architecture that discourages rapid decarbonisation in developing countries.

The Petro administration's promise to halt exploration for new oil and fossil gas fields in a country that is fiscally and economically dependent on fossil fuels underscores its ambition and significance. While this decision aligns with global climate goals, it poses major domestic challenges, as it increases the perception of fiscal and economic risks, which in turn lead to lower credit ratings and higher interest rates on loans. This dynamic exacerbates debt pressures and undermines fiscal stability precisely when countries are striving to pursue decarbonization goals.

Although national climate ambition is essential, countries like Colombia lack the means to deliver on it without equally ambitious international support. This underscores the need for concessional finance to lower the risks of the energy transition alongside reforms to a global financial system. The inadequate climate finance outcome at COP29 in Baku further jeopardises the ability to implement ambitious national agendas.

A successful implementation of Colombia’s ambitious climate agenda, backed by robust international support, could stand as a blueprint for demonstrating ambitious and effective decarbonisation in fossil fuel-dependent developing economies. Despite recent developments, the CAT still rates Colombia’s climate target and policies as “Insufficient.”

In September 2025, Colombia submitted a new NDC that ratifies its 2030 target and introduces a slightly more ambitious goal for 2035. We rate Colombia’s 2030 NDC target as “almost sufficient”, reflecting high ambition relative to its fair share. Climate action, energy transition, and environmental protection are central to the Petro administration’s agenda, embedded in the National Development Plan and the Just Energy Transition Roadmap. Internationally, Colombia has positioned itself as a global leader, using multiple international fora to call for higher ambition and becoming one of the first major fossil fuel producers join a treaty for the non-proliferation of fossil fuels, in line with a 1.5°C pathway.

The Petro administration decided not to grant new oil and fossil gas exploration licences from 2022 on, cancelled pilot projects for fossil gas fracking extraction, and is currently introducing a legislation to ban fracking. Colombia has also seen progress on other fronts. By the end of 2024, solar capacity reached 2 GW (10% of total installed capacity), electric vehicle sales hit record levels, and in 2023, deforestation fell to its lowest rate since 2000. Our analysis suggests that if Colombia implements all its planned policies, it could come very close to achieving its 2030 NDC target.

However, Colombia faces major implementation barriers. The main barrier is its fiscal and economic dependence on fossil fuel rents. Fossil fuels industries contribute to tax revenues, trade balances, royalties, foreign investment and GDP. Phasing them out requires a gradual transition and economic diversification to maintain fiscal stability. Developing alternative economic sectors takes time and sustained investment, particularly in regions heavily reliant on extractive industries.

This is compounded by global financial and trade structures that incentivise dependence on fossil fuels and hamper efforts to decouple them from the economy, leaving economies without the instruments to advance the transition to a low-carbon economy. Colombia’s fiscal space is severely constrained by high debt, rising interest rates, and unfavourable debt structures. The fossil fuel phase-out pledge triggered a downgrading in Colombia's credit rating – linked to the country’s reliance on fossil fuels for government revenue, foreign exchange and investment – which increased borrowing costs. This illustrates the stark trade-offs and misalignment between climate ambition and the international financial system.

Additionally, cabinet reshuffles, political instability, and pursuing several reforms in parallel have slowed policy execution domestically. Social licensing processes have also delayed renewable energy and grid projects, especially in the La Guajira region, where optimal wind and solar energy resources coincide with entrenched social inequalities and weak community engagement processes.

Colombia could take these steps to strengthen its climate action:

• Enhance detail in the 2035 NDC: the final version of Colombia’s 2035 target could include explicit renewable energy and energy efficiency targets, alongside clearly defined sectoral carbon budgets, particularly for land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).
• Complementary policies that substantiate the halt on new oil and fossil gas exploration, particularly on economic and fiscal diversification toward productive activities away from fossil fuels
• Continue advancing just transition efforts by strengthening social and environmental permitting processes in the renewable energy sector through equitable benefit-sharing, inclusive, and transparent community engagement processes to unlock and ramp up the deployment of non-conventional renewables and enabling infrastructure.
• Modernise electricity market design and regulation to reflect a paradigm shift towards a renewables-based security of supply, providing stable long-term signals that lower the financial cost of wind and solar and leverage their complementarity with hydropower, thereby strengthening resilience to droughts and accelerating decarbonisation.
• Accelerate electrification of buildings, transport, and industry to cut emissions and reduce fossil fuel dependence. Specific policies to incentivise electrification in cooking, EV charging infrastructure and electrification of industrial processes should be prioritised.
• Continue to enforce laws to reduce deforestation, especially in the Amazon region, which is prone to agricultural expansion and accounted for 65% of Colombia’s deforestation in 2024.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Colombia’s climate targets and policies as “Insufficient.” The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Colombia’s climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. Colombia’s 2030 NDC target is consistent with 2°C of warming when compared both to modelled emissions pathways and its fair share contribution.

In its 2035 NDC submission, Colombia ratified the 2030 target. Colombia could have improved its target rating to “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” by strengthening the 2030 target by 3% relative to its fair share contribution, or by 13% relative to modelled domestic pathways.

Colombia will neither meet its NDC targets under current policies and actions nor additional planned policies. Colombia will need to implement additional policies using its own resources but should also receive international support for their implementation and to set more ambitious targets beyond its national fair share.

We rate Colombia’s policies and action as “Insufficient” when compared to its expected fair share contribution. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Colombia’s climate policies and action in 2030 need substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Colombia’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Under current policy projections, Colombia’s 2030 emissions are likely to fall between 205–209 MtCO₂e excl. LULUCF, which is far above (36–38%) its fair share contribution of 146 MtCO₂e in 2030 for a 1.5°C consistent pathway and is also insufficient to meet the country’s 2030 NDC target. Planned policies are estimated to lead to emissions levels of between 173–180 MtCO₂e in 2030, which is also insufficient to meet Colombia’s NDC target (15–19% above).

Colombia’s main challenge lies less in its stated ambition and more in implementation. Closing the gap to meet its targets and advancing toward full decarbonisation will require stronger domestic measures, backed by both national resources and substantial international support. This includes not only increased climate finance but also reforms to the international financial system to better align with - and enable - higher levels of national climate ambition, especially in developing countries.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

Colombia has not put forward a conditional target, but its NDC mentions that for Colombia to be able to move towards a more ambitious NDC, with additionality and impact, international cooperation will be key to continue on this path in all aspects of its NDC. The CAT rates Colombia’s 2030 NDC target against modelled domestic pathways and find it to be “Almost sufficient.” This rating takes into account that Colombia would need international support for a fraction of the actions required to be consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature limit.

Colombia’s 2030 NDC target is not consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C compared to its fair share contribution. To achieve its fair share contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C, Colombia would need to reach absolute emissions of or below 146 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excl. LULUCF). This represents a 3% improvement on the current NDC target, which CAT estimates to be equivalent to 151 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excl. LULUCF). The CAT rates Colombia’s NDC target as “Almost sufficient.”

Reducing emissions from deforestation is a vital part of Colombia’s climate action. The technical document attached to Colombia's NDC highlights the significant responsibility that falls on land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), representing 59% of all the mitigation potential proposed to meet its NDC.

The LULUCF sector is the single largest contributor to Colombia’s GHG emissions, representing more than 39% of the country’s total emissions in 2021. Reducing emissions from deforestation is a vital part of Colombia’s climate mitigation target.

However, overreliance on this sector risks limiting mitigation efforts in other sectors with proven solutions, making it harder to reach the 2050 goal. Colombia should avoid relying on LULUCF sinks to achieve its climate targets as much as possible, given risks of carbon loss through deforestation, land competition, and existing structural challenges such as land tenure concentration and internal conflicts.

In November 2021, Colombia submitted a 2050 net zero GHG emissions target as National Long Term Strategy (E2050) to the UNFCCC. The strategy describes the need to carry out mitigation actions in all sectors, intending to reduce GHG emissions by 90% by 2050, below 2015 levels.

In December 2021, Colombia promoted the country's low-carbon development through the establishment of minimum targets and measures for carbon neutrality and climate resilience with the Climate Action Law (Ley N°2169, 2021).

We evaluate Colombia’s net zero target as “Acceptable”.

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.