Historical emissions for 1990-2018 are taken from the PRIMAP database.
LULUCF data for 1990-2014 is taken from the Greenhouse Gas Inventory in Colombia’s Second Biennial Update Report (Gobierno de Colombia- IDEAM, 2019). We have taken emissions for the land category (3B) only. Inventory data is calculated using global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s second assessment report; however, we have not converted 3B figures as these are predominantly CO2 emissions.
2020 emissions estimate
We used the growth rate projections calculated from the BAU scenario designed by Universidad de los Andes for the updated NDC, which includes an estimate of the impact of the pandemic, to estimate emissions in 2019 and 2020 (Gobierno de Colombia, 2020c).
NDC and other targets
NDC targets were obtained from the Colombia’s updated NDC submitted to the UNFCCC on 30 December 2020 and were calculated excluding LULUCF. For a full explanation of assumptions used to evaluate Colombia’s NDC, please see the Climate Target Update Tracker.
Note: In this assessment, we have used a AR5 to AR4 conversion factor based on the a gas-by-gas breakdown for 2018 emissions, so the quantification of the target varies slightly to the numbers used on the Tracker page, which are based on a gas by gas breakdown of 2014 emissions.
Current policy & planned policy emission projections
We estimated current policies based on policies with some evidence of existing implementation. The Mitigation Portfolio Annex provided in support of Colombia’s updated NDC was used to establish start dates of the various mitigation policies in each sector (Gobierno de Colombia, 2020d). We include in our planned policy scenario those initiatives with later start dates or for which evidence existed that implementation had not yet begun. As the updated NDC used GWP AR5 values, we assume all mitigation quantifications were in AR5 and converted these to AR4 values.
Sectoral policies used to calculate mitigation potential include:
The total energy sector mitigation estimate outlined in Colombia’s Energy Sector Plan for Climate Change Management (PIGCCS), published in 2018, was used as evidence for current energy policies (MinMinas & Gobierno de Colombia, 2018). This included four measures: improved energy efficiency, greater electricity generation, reduced energy demand and reducing fugitive emissions. Projected energy sector mitigation was given as a range of roughly 3-13 Mt CO2e in 2030 depending on the scenarios and assumptions used when estimating emissions from energy sources (MinMinas & Gobierno de Colombia, 2018). This range was reflected in our current policy projections with the lower energy mitigation estimate include in the minimum policy projection and the maximum estimate in the maximum current policy projection.
We used the updated NDC and the National Electric Mobility Strategy to estimate transport emissions. The transport policy with the most mitigation potential so far is Move NAMA, implemented in 2018 with the passage of Law 1964 and advancing with recent government decrees on EV charging infrastructure and tax incentives. Additional current policies in this sector include Tandem NAMA and TOD NAMA, also implemented in 2018, as well as policies to improve mitigation in aviation, freight transport and railway development which began in 2015.
We did not consider the Sustainable Transport in Intermediate Cities (STIC) initiative as it was not listed in the updated NDC submission, even though it was included in Colombia’s reported mitigation potential in their Second Biennial Report to the UNFCCC.
For planned policies, we took the maximum mitigation potential listed in Colombia’s 2020 NDC for the energy sector.
The 2020 NDC was used to determine current industrial policies. NAMA refrigeration, implemented in 2018, is the only industry mitigation measures included in current policies. All other industry mitigation policies are schedule to begin in 2022 and beyond, and are therefore included in planned policy projections.
Current agricultural policies from the 2020 NDC were used for this sector. These include the improvement of cocoa and rice production with sustainable methods, both implemented in 2015. The Sustainable Beef NAMA, the agricultural policy with the largest projected mitigation potential, was slated to begin in 2020 but according to recent reports is still in the formulation phase (Ministerio de Agricultura (Colombia), 2020). This policy, along with other policies such as Coffee NAMA and Panela NAMA, were included in planned policies due to lacking evidence that they have been implemented as of 2021.
The Sectoral Plan for Climate Change Management (PIGCCS) from the Ministry of Housing was used to determine current policies for both the waste & buildings sector (Ministerio de Vivienda Colombia, 2020).
Using the PIGCCS form the Ministry of Housing, mitigation from potential from the 2015 implementation of Resolution 0549 on emission reductions in new homes and buildings was used for current policy projections.
Global Warming Potential values
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series.
Pledges and targets reported in Colombia’s sectoral policies and pledges under the Paris Agreement vary in terms of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) methodology used, with most policy documents preceding the updated NDC reporting in GWP from the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR) and the updated NDC and subsequent documents reporting in GWP consistent with GWP from the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report (AR5). In these cases, all reported emissions quantities were first converted to equivalence in AR4 GWP values for further analysis.