Colombia

Historical emissions for 1990-2021 are based on the latest national emissions inventory submitted to UNFCCC. The national inventory provides data using Global Warming Potentials from AR5 (IDEAM, 2024).

Emissions are extrapolated by IPCC category to 2023 using data from PRIMAP (Gütschow et al., 2024). Year 2023 is used thereafter as base year.

2030 NDC

The 2030 NDC target is obtained from Colombia’s submission to the UNFCCC in December 2020, which provides a breakdown of its BAU emissions projections by IPCC category (Gobierno de Colombia, 2020a).

The CAT presents all targets excluding LULUCF. For Colombia’s 2030 NDC, we excluded the projected land sector emissions from the target using the most recent data available from the 2024 Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) (Ideam et al., 2024). This represents a methodological change from previous CAT assessment, which relied on the Annex M1 of the NDC to quantify reductions sector by sector to meet the target.

This methodological revision led to a lower estimate of Colombia’s 2030 NDC target excluding LULUCF, decreasing from 162 MtCO₂e to 151 MtCO₂e. The change is primarily due to a greater expected contribution of the LULUCF sector toward achieving the NDC, as reported in Colombia’s latest Biennial Transparency Report (BTR).

2035 NDC

Details on the 2035 NDC target are taken from Colombia’s submission to the UNFCCC in September 2025 (Gobierno de Colombia, 2025b)

For the 2035 NDC target, we excluded projected land sector emissions, applying the same value used for 2030. This approach assumes that, in the absence of detailed information, no additional measures are implemented to reduce emissions in the sector beyond those included in the 2030 target. This assumption is supported by the fact that the 2035 NDC does not significantly strengthen its deforestation target relative to 2030. Furthermore, the BAU scenario from the 2020 NDC update, which extends data through 2035, indicates that LULUCF and AFOLU emissions (excluding mitigation measures) are projected to increase only modestly—by 1.5% and 2.3%, respectively, between 2030 and 2035—further justifying the use of the 2030 values for our assessment.

A more refined estimation of the NDC excluding LULUCF will be conducted once Colombia submits the final version, which is expected to include more granular sectoral detail.

Colombia committed to net zero GHG emissions by 2050 according to its long-term Climate Strategy E2050 submitted to the UNFCCC (Gobierno de Colombia, 2021).

To achieve this target, Colombia aims to reduce GHG emissions in 2050 by 90%, compared to 2015 levels while the remaining 10% will be balanced primarily with nature-based removals (turning the LULUCF sector into a net sink) and technological options such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) for hard-to-abate. Thus, we estimate Colombia’s total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in 2050 to be 23 MtCO₂e.

The starting point to estimate both Current Policies (CP) projections and Planned Policies (PP) projections is the BAU scenario from Colombia’s updated NDC. The BAU scenario is harmonised with the base year (2023) until 2035, representing a continuation of current trends without policy intervention.

Quantification of mitigation potential for CP and PP projections

The mitigation potential for each sector is estimated using the policy portfolio listed in the NDC annex. Policies are classified according to the Third Biennial Update Report (BUR3) and the 2024 Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) (IDEAM et al., 2021; Ideam et al., 2024):

• Current policies (CP): policies with “implementation” status.
• Planned policies (PP): policies at the “formulation” stage. We also include any new measures reported on in the BUR3 and not just those outlined in the NDC update.

Mitigation estimates from BUR3 are used where they differ from the NDC update.

Then, the mitigation potential pathway of each policy is subtracted from the reference scenario to produce CP projections (current policies only) and PP projections (current + planned policies).

To harmonise with the latest historical year (2023), sector-level emissions in the BAU scenario are compared with CAT emissions estimate in the base year (2023). If historical values are lower, the emissions reduction is attributed to implemented policies. This “policy progress” sets the starting point of mitigation at the base year and is then interpolated linearly until the policy’s target year, when its full mitigation potential is assumed to be reached.

Energy supply and transformation sectors

Energy supply and transformation sectors follow a different approach. For these sectors, CP and PP projections are expressed as a range to reflect uncertainty around the outcomes of political commitments to halt new oil and gas exploration. While the current government has stopped licensing new oil and gas exploration and banned fossil gas fracking projects, this decision is not yet enshrined in law and could be reversed after 2026.

• Upper bound: this follows the same methodology as for the other sectors. As explained above, based on the policy portfolio for the energy sector as presented in the NDC (pre-dating recent announcements to halt oil and gas exploration).
• Lower bound: based on recent national energy plan projections. Emissions from primary energy supply are taken from the Plan for Climate Change Management in the Mining and Energy Sector 2050 - PIGCCme (MinEnergía Colombia, 2021). This is complemented with emissions projections for the electricity sector, other transformation sectors, and end-use energy sectors from National Energy Plan 2022–2052 (UPME, 2024a). Post-2030 energy supply emissions follow the National Energy Plan trend, assuming a gradual reduction in domestic oil and gas production to maintain only minimum reserves and consistent with a pathway with no new oil and gas exploration.

The upper bounds for both CP and PP projections follow the same methodology as explained above: based on the implementation status in the BUR3. The lower bound for energy-related emissions use different reference scenarios from the National Energy Plan 2022–2052. For CP projections, the lower bound uses the “Actualisation” scenario, while PP projections use the “Inflexion” scenario.

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for all its figures and time series.