Colombia

In its 2030 NDC, Colombia set an unconditional target of not exceeding 169 MCO2e in 2030, equivalent to a 51% reduction in emissions compared to the projected emissions in 2030 in the reference scenario. This target covers all sectors and GHG gases and uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (Gobierno de Colombia, 2020a).

The CAT excludes emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) when assessing a target. Based on this approach, CAT estimates Colombia’s 2030 target to be equivalent to 151 MtCO2e. For further details on the calculation, see the Assumptions section. CAT rates this target as “Almost sufficient” when compared against both required domestic efforts and to Colombia’s fair share.

Colombia also set a net zero target for 2050 and has submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC. Both the NDC and net zero targets are enshrined in law.

In September 2025, Colombia submitted a new declarative NDC that ratifies its 2030 target and introduces a slightly more ambitious goal for 2035 (Gobierno de Colombia, 2025b)(see more details here). Colombia’s government is currently developing the final version of the 2035 NDC target which will provide greater detail in the modelling of emissions scenarios and sectoral mitigation options to meet it. To strengthen the robustness of its 2035 NDC submission, Colombia could include sector-specific targets, such as renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency improvements, define carbon budgets by sector, and clarify the contribution of the LULUCF sector in the target.

* Colombia’s NDC reports use the GWP from AR5.

In its 2030 NDC, submitted on 30 December 2020, Colombia increased its mitigation ambition to an absolute emissions limit of 169 MtCO2e (including LULUCF) in 2030, equivalent to a 51% emissions reduction compared to a business as usual (BAU) scenario. The update is more ambitious than Colombia’s first NDC, which pledged an unconditional emissions reduction of 20% and a conditional emissions reduction of 30% compared to a BAU scenario by 2030 – equivalent to 268 MtCO2e and 234 MtCO2e, respectively, including LULUCF.

Compared to its first NDC, Colombia improved the type of target – from a reduction compared to BAU – to set an absolute cap on emissions in 2030.

The commitment also includes a peak in emissions by 2027. However, our most optimistic projections indicate a peak not earlier than 2030. Colombia would need to peak GHG emissions before 2027 to get on a pathway that would bring the 2030 NDC target within reach, let alone achieve a pathway compatible with 1.5°C temperature limit.

* Values in AR5
** CAT did not assess Colombia before September 2021.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 30.12.2020: Analysis of NDC update

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation. We consider a range of equity elements like responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against indicative national emissions from global least-cost emission pathways (called modelled domestic pathways). Developing countries like Colombia will need international support to achieve those needed reductions within its borders.

Colombia’s 2030 NDC target does not specify whether a portion of it is conditional on international support or whether its NDC has an international element, so we rate its NDC target against both fairness metrics and modelled domestic pathways.

Colombia does not have a target conditional on receiving international support. However, the NDC document mentions that for Colombia to be able to move towards a more ambitious NDC, international cooperation will be key to continuing on this path in all aspects of its NDC. The CAT methodology shows that provision of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals.

As Colombia has not put forward a conditional target, we assess its NDC target against modelled domestic pathways, i.e. what would need to happen within Colombia’s borders with international support to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Against that framework, the NDC target rates as “Almost sufficient.”

The “Almost sufficient” indicates that Colombia’s NDC target in 2030 is not yet consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Colombia’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

Colombia’s NDC target is also rated as “Almost sufficient” when compared to their fair share contribution. To contribute its fair share to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, Colombia would need to reduce its absolute emissions (excluding LULUCF) to 146 MtCO₂e or lower by 2030. This represents a 3% improvement compared to the CAT’s estimate of Colombia’s 2030 NDC target, which stands at 151 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).

The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Colombia’s NDC target in 2030 is not yet consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. Colombia’s target is within the range of what is considered to be a fair global effort, but would require other countries to make deeper reductions and comparably greater effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Colombia’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Colombia has a net zero GHG emissions target by mid-century. In November 2021, Colombia submitted its National Long-Term Strategy (E2050) to the UNFCCC. The Strategy includes different scenarios and pathways and outlines nine strategic initiatives with 48 transformation options to be considered by decisionmakers.

In December 2021, with the Law No. 2169, Colombia promoted the country's low-carbon development by establishing minimum targets and measures for carbon neutrality and climate resilience. This enshrined the carbon neutrality target into law (Law 2169, 2021).

The strategy describes the need to carry out mitigation actions in all sectors, intending to reduce GHG emissions by 90% by 2050, below 2015 levels. A reduction of the remaining 10% of emissions will be achieved primarily through nature-based removals (turning the LULUCF sector into a net sink) and also technological options such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) for hard-to-abate sectors.

According to our calculations, under its net zero target, Colombia’s total GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) would be around 23 MtCO2e in 2050.

We evaluate Colombia’s net zero target as “Acceptable.”

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.