Ethiopia

Ethiopia has been engaged in civil war since the end of 2020, with the conflict leaving thousands dead and driving a humanitarian crisis exacerbated by international energy and food shortages. In November 2022, parties to the conflict signed a peace agreement to cease hostilities. There has been no significant climate policy development under these circumstances.

In July 2021, Ethiopia submitted an updated NDC, but did not increase the ambition of its mitigation target. The CAT rates Ethiopia’s climate targets and action overall as “Almost sufficient,” one of the few countries to earn this rating. The updated NDC is integrated in Ethiopia’s Ten Year Development Plan published in June 2020, and will form the basis of updating its core climate strategy, the 2011 “Climate Resilient Green Economy” (CRGE) strategy; however, no release date has been communicated.

The CAT’s current Ethiopian emissions projections are higher in 2030 compared to our previous projections, due to revisions in historical data and a smaller than expected impact of the pandemic on emissions. Ethiopia is set to overachieve its unconditional and conditional NDC targets in 2030 under current policies. However, our current projections do not take into consideration the current conflict’s possible impacts on emissions. The IMF has projected a notable drop in the GDP growth rate for 2022, even more drastic than the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ethiopia is one of the few countries that the Climate Action Tracker rates as “Almost Sufficient”. This rating indicates that Ethiopia’s own climate plans are within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort; however, Ethiopia would have to be more ambitious with its internationally supported plans to be consistent with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature limit.

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s climate targets and policies as “Almost Sufficient”. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s climate commitments are not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be with moderate improvements.

Ethiopia’s policies and unconditional NDC target meet what would be expected from a least developed country as its fair share contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C. However, Ethiopia should also propose a conditional NDC target that brings emissions down towards decarbonisation with external support. Its current conditional NDC target is only compatible with more than 4°C of warming, and should be strengthened. Ethiopia should ask for additional support to implement additional policies and meet a more ambitious conditional target.

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s policies and action as “1.5°C compatible” when compared to its fair share contribution. The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Ethiopia’s climate policies and action do not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions.

Ethiopia will overachieve both the unconditional and conditional NDC targets under current policies, indicating there is room for Ethiopia to increase its target ambition.

In its updated NDC, Ethiopia has committed to reduce emissions by 68.8% below a revised BAU (incl. LULUCF) conditional on international support. It will achieve a portion of these reductions unconditionally, using its own resources.

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s conditional NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. Ethiopia should propose a conditional NDC target that brings emissions down towards decarbonisation with external support. Its current conditional NDC target is only compatible with more than 4°C of warming, and should be strengthened. Ethiopia should ask for additional support to implement additional policies and meet a more ambitious conditional NDC target.

Ethiopia intends to achieve this target primarily through reductions in its land sector emissions. Yet, Ethiopia cannot ignore the growth in emissions in other sectors. It needs to strengthen its updated conditional NDC target further and will need additional international support to achieve this target.

Since the last assessment, the CAT has updated its methodology and pathways included for deriving modelled domestic pathways. As a result of these changes, Ethiopia’s target rating now falls into the ‘Critically insufficient’ category rather than the ‘Highly insufficient’ category. The target itself is unchanged since our last update.

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s unconditional NDC target as “1.5°C compatible”. The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s unconditional NDC target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Ethiopia’s unconditional NDC target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and is in the most stringent part of its fair share range.

Land use and forestry are a significant source of Ethiopia’s emissions. Ethiopia intends to achieve the conditional and unconditional targets in its updated NDC primarily (around 85%) through reductions in its land sector emissions.

Ethiopia intends to become carbon neutral without specifying a target year (FDRE, 2015). Ethiopia is in the process of developing a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy with support from the Global Green Growth Institute, including developing business as usual and net zero emissions scenarios. We evaluate the target as “Target information incomplete”

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.