Ethiopia

Overall rating
Almost Sufficient
Policies & action
1.5°C compatible
< 1.5°C World
Internationally supported target
Critically insufficient
4°C+ World
Fair share target
1.5°C compatible
< 1.5°C World
Climate finance
Not applicable
Net zero target

year

Not specified

Comprehensiveness not rated as

Information incomplete
Land use & forestry

historically considered a

Source

Target Overview

In July 2021, Ethiopia submitted its updated NDC, committing to a 68.8% reduction below a revised business-as-usual (BAU) scenario conditional on international support (incl. LULUCF) (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2021). This target also includes an unconditional component, a 14% reduction below BAU, which Ethiopia will undertake with its own resources. Ethiopia intends to achieve both of these targets primarily through reductions in its land sector emissions. The CAT rates Ethiopia’s unconditional target (“fair share target”) as “1.5°C compatible” when compared to its fair share contribution and its conditional target (“internationally supported target”) as “Critically Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways.

Ethiopia intends to become carbon neutral, but has not specified a target year (FDRE, 2015). The government is in the process of developing a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy.

ETHIOPIA - Main climate targets
2030 unconditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC The unconditional pathway will result in absolute emission levels of 347.3 MtCO2e in 2030 equal to a 14% (-56 MtCO2e) reduction below BAU in 2030. (The 2021 NDC provides all emissions estimates using global warming potentials of the AR5.)
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF 269 MtCO2e
[300% above 1990]
[99% above 2010]
Status Submitted on 23 July 2021
2030 conditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC The conditional pathway will result in absolute emission levels to 125.8 MtCO2e in 2030 equal to a 68.8% (-277.7 MtCO2e) reduction below BAU in 2030.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF 237 MtCO2e
[253% above 1990]
[76% above 2010]
Status Submitted on 23 July 2021
Net zero & other long-term targets
Formulation of target Intention to become carbon-neutral (no target year communicated).
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF 237 MtCO2e
[253% above 1990]
[76% above 2010]
Status Submitted on 10 June 2015

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit would be, as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. Ethiopia will need international support to achieve the required reductions within its borders.

Ethiopia’s NDC target includes a portion that is unconditional, that it will achieve using its own resources. We rate that portion against its fair share contribution (which we refer to as its ‘fair share target’). The full NDC target will require international support to achieve and we rate that against the level of reductions needed within Ethiopia’s border (which we refer to as its ‘internationally supported target’).

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Internationally supported target:
Critically insufficient

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s conditional target as “Critically insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. Ethiopia should also propose a conditional target (“internationally supported target”) that brings emissions down towards decarbonisation with external support. Its current conditional target is only compatible with more than 4°C of warming and should be strengthened. Ethiopia should ask for additional support to implement additional policies and meet its conditional target.

Ethiopia intends to achieve this target primarily through reductions in its land sector emissions. Yet, Ethiopia cannot ignore the growth in emissions in other sectors. It needs to strengthen its updated conditional target further and will need additional international support to achieve this target.

Since the last assessment, the CAT has updated its methodology and pathways included for deriving modelled domestic pathways. As a result of these changes, Ethiopia’s target rating now falls into the ‘Critically insufficient’ category rather than the ‘Highly insufficient’ category. The target itself is unchanged since our last update.

Fair share target:
1.5°C compatible

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s unconditional target as “1.5°C compatible”. The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s unconditional target reflects the fair share for a least developed country consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Ethiopia’s fair share target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and is in the most stringent part of its fair share range.

Ethiopia submitted its final updated NDC in July 2021, building on an interim NDC update submitted in December 2020 (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2021).

Ethiopia commits to a 68.8% reduction below a revised business-as-usual (BAU) scenario conditional on international support (incl. LULUCF). This target includes an unconditional component, a 14% reduction below BAU, which Ethiopia will undertake with its own resources. This is an improvement from Ethiopia’s 2015 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), which did not include an unconditional component (FDRE, 2015).

The 2021 updated NDC includes a revision of the BAU scenario used as a reference for the mitigation targets. While the revised BAU emissions level in 2030 is projected to be only slightly higher than in the 2015 INDC, it anticipates much higher emissions from LULUCF emissions in 2030. The updated, 2021 NDC further indicates the LULUCF sector would play a much larger role in achieving the targeted emissions reductions than in the 2015 INDC. Ethiopia intends to achieve its conditional and unconditional targets primarily (around 85% of total reductions) through reductions in its land sector emissions. Due to this increased reliance on the land sector to achieve its updated targets, we do not consider Ethiopia’s updated NDC an increase in ambition.

The unconditional target results in an emissions level of 269 MtCO2e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF), while the conditional target would limit emissions to 237 MtCO2e (see Assumptions for details on how these figures were calculated).

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s conditional target (“internationally supported target”) as “Critically Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways and its unconditional target (“fair share target”) as “1.5°C compatible” when compared to its fair share contribution.

2015 NDC 2021 NDC update
Formulation of target in NDC Unconditional target:
No unconditional target.

Conditional target:
Ethiopia intends to limit its net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030 to 145 Mt CO2e or lower. This would constitute a 255 MtCO2e reduction from the projected ‘business-as- usual’ (BAU) emissions in 2030 or a 64% reduction from the BAU scenario in 2030.
Unconditional target:
The unconditional pathway will result in absolute emission levels of 347.3 MtCO2e in 2030, which represents a reduction against the revised BAU of 14% (-56 MtCO2e) in 2030.

Conditional target:
The impact of further policy interventions proposed under the conditional pathway decreases absolute emission levels to 125.8 MtCO2e such that the combined impact of unconditional and conditional contributions represents a reduction of 68.8% (-277.7 MtCO2e) in comparison with the revised BAU emissions in 2030.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF Unconditional target:
N/A

Conditional target:
185 MtCO2e
Unconditional target:
269 MtCO2e

Conditional target:
237 MtCO2e
Emissions compared to 1990 and 2010 excl. LULUCF Unconditional target:
N/A

Conditional target:
244% above 1990 emissions by 2030
69% above 2010 emissions by 2030
Unconditional target:
300% above 1990 emissions by 2030
99% above 2010 emissions by 2030

Conditional target:
253% above 1990 emissions by 2030
76% above 2010 emissions by 2030
CAT rating Overall rating*:
1.5°C compatible
Internationally supported target:
Critically insufficient

Fair share target:
1.5°C compatible
Sector coverage Agriculture (livestock and soil), Forestry, Transport, Electric Power, Industry (including mining) and Buildings (including Waste and Green Cities) Economy-wide
Separate target for LULUCF No Unchanged
Gas coverage CO2, CH4, N2O Unchanged
Target type Absolute emissions limit Unchanged
Explanation why the target is a fair contribution towards the global goal Yes, based on low per capita emissions compared to global total, especially given the country's development status. Yes, based on current and historical responsibility, capability, development status, vulnerability to climate impacts, level of ambition of target, including unconditional contribution.
Followed guidance in Decision 4/CMA.1 on target transparency N/A Yes

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

Ethiopia intends to become carbon neutral without specifying a target year (FDRE, 2015). Ethiopia is in the process of developing a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy with support from the Global Green Growth Institute, including developing business as usual and net zero emissions scenarios. We evaluate the target as “Target information incomplete”.

For the full analysis, click here.

2020 pledge

Under the Copenhagen Accord, Ethiopia proposed several Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) in the power, transport, forestry, agriculture and waste management sectors (FDRE, 2010). Limited information is available on the status of implementation of the NAMAs (UNFCCC, 2019).

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