Ethiopia

NDC description

Ethiopia submitted its final updated NDC in July 2021, building on an interim NDC update submitted in December 2020.

Ethiopia commits to a 68.8% reduction below a revised business-as-usual (BAU) scenario conditional on international support (incl. LULUCF). This target includes an unconditional component, a 14% reduction below BAU, which Ethiopia will undertake with its own resources.

Ethiopia intends to achieve both of these targets primarily (around 85% of total reductions) through reductions in its land sector emissions.

The unconditional target results in an emissions level of 269 MtCO₂e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF), while the conditional target would limit emissions to 237 MtCO₂e (see Assumptions for details on how these figures were calculated).

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s conditional target (“internationally supported target”) as “Highly Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways and its unconditional target (“fair share target”) as “1.5°C compatible” when compared to its fair share contribution.

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s conditional target as “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s internationally supported target in 2030 leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Ethiopia’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Ethiopia intends to achieve this target primarily through reductions in its land sector emissions. Yet, Ethiopia cannot ignore the growth in emissions in other sectors. It needs to strengthen its updated conditional target further and will need additional support to achieve this target.

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s unconditional target as “1.5°C compatible”. The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s fair share target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Ethiopia’s fair share target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and is in the most stringent part of its Fair Share range.

Last NDC update

Ethiopia submitted its updated NDC in July 2021. Our comparison of the updated NDC to Ethiopia’s first NDC will be published on the CAT Climate Target Update Tracker soon.

Ethiopia intends to become carbon neutral without specifying a target year (FDRE, 2015). Ethiopia is in the process of developing a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy with support from the Global Green Growth Institute, including developing business as usual and net zero emissions scenarios.

For the full analysis, click here.

Under the Copenhagen Accord, Ethiopia proposed several Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) in the power, transport, forestry, agriculture and waste management sectors (FDRE, 2010). Limited information is available on the status of implementation of the NAMAs (UNFCCC, 2019).