Ethiopia

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s policies and action as “1.5°C compatible” when compared to its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation. The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Ethiopia’s climate policies and action do not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions.

Ethiopia’s emissions have risen over the last decade and are expected to continue rising under current policies. Still, Ethiopia is expected to achieve its unconditional target and likely its conditional target if current policies are fully implemented.

While Ethiopia rates well when compared to what its fair share contribution is, its policies and action are “Critically Insufficient ” when compared to what modelled domestic pathways based on global least cost pathways show should be occurring within its borders.

This rating is based on our upper bound estimate of Ethiopia’s current policies derived from the business as usual scenario (BAU) in Ethiopia’s Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), though it is unclear what policies are comprised in the BAU scenario. From this perspective, Ethiopia needs to implement more stringent policies and it will need additional support to do so. Such action would be bolstered by adopting a stronger conditional target.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Ethiopia was engaged in a civil war between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the federal government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed between 2020 and 2022 (United Nations Security Council, 2021). On 2 November 2022, the two sides signed a peace deal to end hostilities (UN News, 2022). The conflict resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and drove a humanitarian crisis exacerbated by international energy and food shortages and restrictions on humanitarian aid. Even now, many people still suffer from malnutrition. While there has been some progress on reconstruction of affected areas, 90% of health facilities remain damaged. Manufacturing and industries have not fully recovered, with unemployment rising and workers remaining unpaid (Al Jazeera, 2023b). The progress of the reconstruction of the affected areas has been slow.

Despite this situation, Ethiopia has advanced its climate policy by publishing a Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) in 2023 (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023). The LT-LEDS outlines economy‑wide mitigation pathways with the aim of reaching net zero by 2050. Ethiopia’s LT-LEDS builds on its Climate Resilience and Green Economy (CRGE) strategy and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023). The LT-LEDS is stated to be aligned with the 10-Year Development Plan and the updated NDC, by adopting the economic growth projections and national objectives, and with the NDC through scenario development based on its targets.

In 2024, Ethiopia published an NDC implementation plan, which details sector-specific strategies designed to achieve the targets outlined in its NDC (Ministry of Planning and Development, 2024). This plan serves as a central national tool to enhance coordination, transparency, resource mobilisation, and the tracking and reporting of progress on the measures outlined in Ethiopia’s NDCs.

The CRGE strategy, launched in 2011, originally aimed to achieve middle income country status by 2025. CRGE is the basis of the country’s climate action. However, it faces several challenges in delivery due to the lack of representative data at national level (EfD Initiative, 2018). The government conducted an implementation review in 2020, finding no evidence of emissions reduction since the CRGE strategy was introduced (World Bank, 2020). The IEA notes that the government has made progress on monitoring and evaluation processes as well as updating the CRGE strategy (International Energy Agency, 2022a), but does not specify when the update process began. As of early 2025, no updated version of the CRGE can be found.

In early 2024, Ethiopia banned the import of all internal combustion engine cars, both new and used, becoming the first country in the world to achieve this (Hochet-Bodin, 2024). In 2022, Ethiopia introduced policy to incentive EV uptake through exempting EVs from various taxes, including value-added tax (VAT), excise tax, surtax, and a lower import tax for locally assembled EVs (EfD Initiative, 2022).

In 2023, the Government of Ethiopia secured USD 40m result-based grant from the World Bank's BioCarbon Fund Initiative for Sustainable Forest Landscapes (ISFL) (World Bank, 2023). The project aims to sequester and reduce approximately 4 MtCO₂e by 2030 through various sustainable practices across the AFOLU sector.

Over the last decade, Ethiopia has prioritised the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and Koysha hydropower projects, with capacity of 6 GW and 2 GW, respectively. The GERD is expected to double Ethiopia's hydropower-based electricity generation once fully operational (Ethiopian Monitor, 2024) and it was 97.6% complete as of January 2025 (AllAfrica, 2025).

However, the GERD has been the centre of a regional dispute with Egypt and Sudan. In July 2023, the Ethiopian and Egyptian governments had agreed to fast-track negotiations to finalise the dam agreement within four months (Anna, 2023). However, by December 2023, talks collapsed, resulting in no final agreement (Reuters, 2023). As tensions persisted, Egypt brought the issue to the United Nations in July 2024 (Abdu, 2024).

While the dam potentially could provide significant benefits for Ethiopia’s low-carbon development and energy security by generating clean energy, reaching a permanent legal or institutional framework accepted by the affected states, which addresses the consideration of negative environmental effects and share of water resources, will be pivotal for Ethiopia in meeting its targets.

In June 2020, Ethiopia released its Ten Year Development Plan: A Pathway to Prosperity (2021-2030) (Planning and Development Commission, 2021). The plan aims to grow the economy by 10.2% annually while also supporting a climate-resilient green economy (Ethiopian Monitor, 2020). The plan includes quantified targets to increase Ethiopia’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction capacity from 92.7 MtCO₂e to 162.3 MtCO₂e by 2030. However, it is unclear if this is referring to emissions mitigation potential and, if so, how it relates to the mitigation potentials presented in the updated NDC. The plan also includes emission reduction targets for agricultural subsectors and for transport and targets to increase electricity generation and access.

Under current policy projections, we project emissions will increase to 197-220 MtCO₂e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF); a 62-81% increase compared to 2010 emissions levels (excl. LULUCF). There is a high degree of uncertainty in these projections, given the limited data and policy information available for Ethiopia. We have also not attempted to estimate any impact the civil war may have had on emissions.

Ethiopia’s primary energy supply is dominated by biomass (87.2%) (International Energy Agency, 2022b), as only about half of the population has access to electricity and less than 10% has access to clean cooking (IRENA, 2022). Oil makes up the next largest share of the energy mix at 8.3%, followed by hydropower (3%), and coal (1%) used in the industry sector (International Energy Agency, 2022b). Ethiopia relies on oil imports, with minimal domestic production.

However, even though Ethiopia’s power grid is almost entirely decarbonised, with the majority of electricity generated by hydropower and a growing share of wind power, only half the population has access to electricity (IRENA, 2022). In an effort to tackle this, the government introduced the National Electrification Plan (NEP) in 2017, followed by the NEP II in 2019 which aims to achieve universal electrification by 2025. This would be accomplished with 65% on-grid and 35% off-grid technologies (Ministry of Water Irrigation & Electricity, 2019). The 10-year development plan sets more ambitious targets, increasing grid-based electricity coverage from 33% to 96% and adjusting off-grid coverage from 11% to 4%. However, updated information on the status of electricity access as of 2025 is not yet available.

Low electricity access has led to only 10% of the population having access to clean cooking (IRENA, 2022). As a result, Ethiopians still rely on biomass sources such as firewood and charcoal for cooking, contributing to deforestation and severe health problems due to exposure to air pollution. The National Biogas Programme is the government’s main initiative towards replacing traditional cooking fuels with more sustainable sources (Teshome, 2019).

Hydropower

In the 10-year development plan, the government aims to increase the export of electricity, which will require investment in an extensive distribution grid. Meeting this goal also depends on new hydropower projects, including the GERD and the Koysha dam (6 GW and 2 GW of installed capacity, respectively) (Mpofu, 2021).

The GERD began generating electricity in 2022 (Aljazeera, 2022) and, once fully operational, the GERD is expected to double Ethiopia's hydropower-based electricity generation (Ethiopian Monitor, 2024). As of August 2024, it was 97.6% complete as of January 2025 (AllAfrica, 2025). However, the GERD has been the centre of a regional dispute between Ethiopia, and Egypt and Sudan over the Nile as a shared water resource. As tensions persisted, Egypt brought the dispute to the United Nations in July 2024 (Abdu, 2024).

While the dam provides significant benefits for Ethiopia’s low-carbon development and energy security by generating clean energy, reaching a permanent legal or institutional framework accepted by the affected states, which addresses the consideration of negative environmental effects and share of water resources, will be pivotal for Ethiopia to meet its targets.

Other renewable generation

In 2024, the Japanese corporation TOYO Co Ltd, announced a plan to established solar cell manufacturing factory in Ethiopia with an annual production capacity of 2GW, set to begin operations in 2025 (EnergyNews, 2024). The facility is expected to cater to the growing global demand for solar cells while also stimulating the growth of the local economy. However, its impact on the country’s solar cell adoption remains uncertain.

Ethiopia has deals with renewable energy companies based out of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to construct a 300MW wind farm (Anyango, 2024). The Ethiopia’s Ministry of Finance stated that this initiative aligns with the National Energy Policy. Known as the Aysha-1 Project, the power generated by the wind farm will be sold to the national utility company, Ethiopian Electric Power, under a 25-year agreement. This project is part of the UAE's $4.5bn clean energy initiative in Africa (Irwin-Hunt, 2024).

Agriculture drives the Ethiopian economy, accounting for nearly 40% of GDP, employing 80% of the workforce, and contributing 90% of the country’s foreign currency through exports (ITA, 2024). Agriculture is responsible for about three-quarters of Ethiopia’s emissions (excl. LULUCF). However, agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors and expected climate change induced hazards reduce an estimated 4% of the GDP (Tesfaye et al., 2024). Emissions from agriculture are expected to increase more than any other sector under Ethiopia’s updated business as usual scenario in its LT-LEDS (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023). A 2020 progress assessment of the CRGE Strategy identified 39 ongoing or completed projects expected to have mitigation benefits in the agriculture and livestock sector (Pegasys, 2020).

In 2024, Ethiopia published Climate Smart Agriculture Investment Plan (CSAIP) which outlines priority investment areas and strategies to enhance the agriculture sector resilience, sustainability, and productivity (Tesfaye et al., 2024). Ethiopia has been promoting climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices through the Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources (MoANR) as a key institution, with various projects and programmes implemented by its different units including the CRGE Coordination Unit (CIAT; BFS/USAID, 2017).

The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Ethiopia’s project on CSA is focused on degraded land restoration, agroforestry, farmer managed natural regeneration, agroforestry, dissemination of improved varieties and more (International Center for Tropical Agriculture United States Agency for International Development, 2017).

However, there is a reported low level of implementation on the smallholder farmer level, due to knowledge and skills gap (Ahmed et al., 2023). Domestic and international resources are crucial to fill financial gaps (Strubenhoff, 2021). Under the NDC-aligned scenario in LT-LEDS, nearly USD 30bn in capital investment is necessary (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023). The CGIAR has launched the Ethiopia Climate-Smart Agriculture Investment Plan (CSAIP) which presents a comprehensive investment portfolio that serves as a model for practical and effective projects addressing various challenges in Ethiopia’s agricultural sector (AICCRA, 2024).

The CAT’s analysis based on Ethiopia’s LTS, show that Ethiopia’s emissions from LULUCF are more than 40% of the country’s total emissions, primarily as a result of deforestation. Between 2001-2022, Ethiopia lost 467 kha of tree cover. This equates to a 3.9% decrease in tree cover since 2000 and 222 MtCO₂e of emissions (Global Forest Watch, 2022).

According to Ethiopia’s NDC, LULUCF is the second most significant source of emissions under BAU assumptions, after agriculture. The conditional target would see the sector become a carbon sink by 2030, reducing emissions by 171% (-240.1 MtCO₂e) compared to BAU by 2030. Under the unconditional target, the sector would still be a source of emissions, but would fall by 34.6% (-48.4 MtCO₂e ) compared to BAU (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2021).

Ethiopia’s LT-LEDS states its low emission pathway for the forestry sector would be achieved through reduced deforestation, afforestation and reforestation, and forest restoration (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023). Effective policies to ensure the achievement of these targets are crucial for significantly reducing deforestation and turning the forest into a carbon sink.

In 2018, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MEFCC) developed a National REDD+ Strategy (2016-2030) to improve management of forests and agricultural areas as a key pillar of the CRGE framework. As a result, Ethiopia has received ETB 149m (USD 3.58m) from carbon trading sold through REDD+ (Abiye, 2021).

Selling reductions from forests sinks poses a major risk for Ethiopia’s long-term mitigation ambition: achieving further mitigation reductions in the future (as needed under the Paris Agreement) will become much more difficult, and more expensive. The MEFCC also initiated the National Forest Sector Development Programme (2016-2025) to coordinate strategic policy interventions and sector-wide investments for the CRGE and REDD+ Strategy (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023).

The REDD+ Investment Programme has entered its second phase at the end of 2023, to be implemented until 2026 with a USD 25m budget from the Government of Norway. Ethiopia aims to increase total forest cover to 30% by 2030 from 15% forest cover in 2020 (UNEPGRID, n.d.).

In 2023, the Government of Ethiopia sealed a USD 40m deal with the World Bank's BioCarbon Fund Initiative for Sustainable Forest Landscapes (ISFL) (World Bank, 2023) and aims to sequester and reduce approximately 4 MtCO₂e by 2030 through various sustainable practices across AFOLU sector. ISFL differs from REDD+ in both scope and governance. Scope-wise, ISFL includes the agriculture sector, addressing broader land-use challenge. Governance-wise, ISFL operates at a jurisdictional level, working directly with regional authorities rather than being limited to project-based interventions like REDD+.

The project was planned to be conducted in a three million ha area within Oromia region, where 52% Ethiopia’s forest landscapes are located. As of 2024, the ISFL program has made significant progress, including the establishment of 51 forest tree nurseries in deforestation hotspots and training over 22,800 forest users in sustainable practices (BioCarbon Fund, 2024).

In 2024, Ethiopia launched an ambitious reforestation project aimed at restoring 12,000 hectares of native forest (Green Earth, 2024). The initiative is expected to sequester 7.26 MtCO₂ over 30 years. However, it has been registered under the carbon standard, indicating that the project is designed to generate carbon credits for sale in the carbon market, rather than contributing to country’s NDC.

Only 29% of Ethiopia’s total international climate finance received has gone toward addressing issues in the AFOLU sector (Padmanabhi & Meattle, 2022) despite the sector contributing to 80% of total emissions. This highlights a clear imbalance between the share of international climate finance directed to the sector and its significant contribution to national emissions.

Ethiopia’s NDC provides ambitious targets in reducing emissions from the waste sector, although it only makes up 3% of BAU emissions in 2030. The conditional target would reduce emissions by 74.7% (-8.6 MtCO₂e) compared to BAU by 2030, while the unconditional target is estimated to reduce emissions by 17.1% (-2 MtCO₂e) (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2021).

The low emissions pathway of the Ethiopian LTS aims to eliminate more than 80% of emissions from the waste sector by 2050. It includes seven actions to decarbonise the waste sector, mainly by improving solid waste collection and management. The other efforts are through organic waste treatment; landfill gas (LFG) management; inorganic/dry waste reduction, reuse, recycling and energy recovery; improved urban domestic wastewater management; improved rural and industrial wastewater management; and improved fecal sludge management (rural and urban) (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023).

According to the LT-LEDS’ historical inventory, transportation contributed to 2.8% of Ethiopia's total emissions in 2020, although it accounted for 45% of emissions within the energy sector (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023). The LT-LEDS notes that these emissions mostly came from land-based transport. Road transport in particular is a major emitter, accounting for approximately 90% of total land transport emissions (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023). Transport energy demand is currently met with oil, which is mostly imported.

The Ten-Year Development Plan includes targets for the transport sector, including increased rail infrastructure and the reduction of transport emissions. However, the plan also aims to increase domestic and international flight (Planning and Development Commission, 2021). In 2020, the government adopted a National Transport Policy that aims to increase rail and expand transport options that operate on renewable energy (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2020). The updated NDC aims to reduce transport emissions through transport electrification and public transport (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2021).

Electric Vehicles

Ethiopia is a regional leader for electrifying its vehicles. In early 2024, Ethiopia banned the import of all internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), both new and used, becoming the first country in the world to achieve this (Hochet-Bodin, 2024) . In 2022, Ethiopia introduced a policy to incentive EV uptake through exempting them from various taxes, including value-added tax (VAT), excise tax, surtax, and a lower import tax. The import tax is lowered to 15% for fully assembled EVs and 5% for semi-assembled ones, while CKD (completely knocked-down) vehicles—those assembled in Ethiopia—are entirely exempt from taxation (EfD Initiative, 2022).

Charging infrastructure remains one of the key barriers to widespread EV adoption (Africa Energy Portal, 2024). To address this, Ethiopia plans to install charging stations for EVs every 50 and 120 kilometres across country. The directive to establish the regulatory framework for electric vehicle charging systems has been approved (FANABC, 2025).

Ethiopia has a 10-year target to adopt 148,000 EVs and close to 50,000 electric buses by 2032 (International Trade Administration, 2024). However, after reaching its 100,000 EV target within two years, the government updated the target to 500,000 electric cars over the same period (FANABC, 2024). Ethiopia’s Transport Sector National Perspective Plan aims to decarbonise public transport by introducing 4,850 electric buses and 148,000 small electric vehicles (Ministry of Transport, 2020).

While Ethiopia has low-motorisation rate, with only one vehicle for every 100 people (International Trade Administration, 2024), Ethiopia spends over USD 5bn annually on petrol and diesel imports for transportation (FANABC, 2024). The transition to EV is expected to relieve this budget.

Public Transport and Non-motorised Transport

Ethiopia is supporting more sustainable modes of transport such as public transit and non-motorised transport. In September 2023, Ethiopia, together with Kenya, agreed to construct the an approximately 3000 km railway line connecting Lamu with Addis Ababa. The line will be electrified and the governments are currently seeking funding for the project (Preston, 2023) . The government has also supported active mobility with the Non-Motorised Transport Strategy, launched in 2020. The strategy includes the construction of 3 km of footpaths and 2 km of bike paths per 10,000 people, as well as maintaining private motor vehicle travel at 2020 levels (UNEP, 2023).

Ethiopia’s industry sector accounts only for 1% of total emission when including LULUCF. Within the sector, the cement industry is a dominant source, responsible for nearly 100% Ethiopia’s industry sector emissions (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023), with the country being one of the top producers on the continent (AsokoInsight, n.d.). The LT-LEDS notes that mega construction projects—such as the dam, industrial parks, sugar factories, highways, railways, and private sector developments—have led to increased cement production (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023).

However, the civil war, which ended in 2023, has severely impacted industrial operations in the Tigray region, with the manufacturing, agriculture and business sectors largely destroyed and nearly 200,000 people left unemployed (Al Jazeera, 2023b). This has impacted the production of many commodities, including cement. For example, despite being one of the least damaged factories during the war, the Messebo Cement Factory was shut down and has only recently resumed operations at half capacity (Insight, n.d.; Sew, 2024).

Around two-thirds of Ethiopia’s agriculture emissions are methane, one-third nitrous oxide and only 1% is from carbon dioxide. Methane comes from enteric fermentation and rice production, while nitrous oxide is generated from soil management, like the use of fertilisers. Manure management and biomass burning could also produce both gases (Mekonnen, 2022). Livestock is the single largest source of emissions in Ethiopia (excl. LULUCF) (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2021). The livestock subsector is estimated to contribute 304 MtCO₂e/year from 333 MtCO₂e/year of emissions from the agriculture sector by 2050, or more than 90% (excluding carbon sequestration from perennial crops) (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023).

Previously in 2016, Ethiopia had projects to reduce methane emissions from livestock, including a project for the low emission development of the dairy sector in partnership with the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (Climate and Clean Air Coalition, 2016) however, there have been no recent updates on this project.

In its LT-LEDS, Ethiopia developed low emissions pathways for the agriculture sector with several mitigation interventions in line with their net zero target. The methane emissions from livestock are expected to be significantly reduced with better manure management, appropriate feeding strategies, improved animal nutrition and breeding programs, substitution of cattle to poultry, and agricultural mechanisation to reduce the reliance on animal traction. These interventions are expected to reduce emissions by 163 MtCO₂e or around 54% compared to the BAU scenario by 2050, under the low emission pathway presented in LT-LEDS (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023).