Ethiopia

In July 2021, Ethiopia submitted its updated NDC, committing to a 68.8% reduction below a revised business as usual (BAU) scenario conditional on international support (incl. LULUCF) (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2021). This target also includes an unconditional component – a 14% reduction below BAU – which Ethiopia will undertake with its own resources. Ethiopia intends to achieve both of these targets primarily through reductions in its land sector emissions. The CAT rates Ethiopia’s unconditional target as “1.5°C compatible” when compared to its fair share contribution and its conditional target as “Critically Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways.

Ethiopia has advanced its climate policy by publishing a Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) in 2023 (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023). The LT-LEDS has outlined long-term sustainable and resilient economy‑wide mitigation pathways aiming to reach net zero by 2050, but Ethiopia has not yet formally committed to a specific pathway.

2030 NDC targets

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s conditional target as “Critically Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways and its unconditional target as “1.5°C compatible” when compared to its fair share contribution.

NDC Update

Ethiopia submitted an updated 2030 NDC in July 2021, building on an interim NDC update submitted in December 2020 (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2021).

Ethiopia commits to a 68.8% reduction below a revised business as usual (BAU) scenario, conditional on international support (incl. LULUCF). This target includes an unconditional component, a 14% reduction below BAU, which Ethiopia will undertake with its own resources. This is an improvement on Ethiopia’s 2015 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), which did not include an unconditional component (FDRE, 2015).

The 2021 updated NDC includes a revision of the BAU scenario used as a reference for the mitigation targets. While the revised BAU emissions level in 2030 is projected to be only slightly higher than in the 2015 INDC, it anticipates much higher emissions from the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector in 2030. The updated 2021 NDC further indicates that the LULUCF sector would play a larger role in achieving the targeted emissions reductions than in the 2015 INDC. Ethiopia intends to achieve its conditional and unconditional targets primarily through reductions in its land sector emissions (around 85% of total reductions).

NDC Upr criteria for assessing increased ambition, Ethiopia’s updated NDC does not reflect increased ambition. Greater reliance on the land sector for emissions reductions often indicates weaker efforts in other key sectors like energy, industry, and agriculture. Given the shift of focus, we do not consider Ethiopia’s updated NDC an increase in ambition.

The unconditional target results in an emissions level of 243 MtCO₂e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF), while the conditional target would limit emissions to 215 MtCO₂e (see Assumptions section for details on how these figures were calculated).

*Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

• 22.07.2021 – “Ethiopia submits final updated NDC”
• 31.12.2020 – “Ethiopia submits NDC update committing to first unconditional emissions target, though progression unclear”

Developing countries like Ethiopia will need support to achieve emissions reductions in line with a modelled domestic pathway achieving the 1.5°C long-term temperature goal.

Ethiopia has put forward two targets in its NDC. One that it will achieving using its own resources and one that requires international support. We rate the country’s unconditional target compared to its fair share contribution and its conditional target compared to the level of reductions needed according to the modelled domestic pathways.

Developing countries like Ethiopia will need support to achieve emissions reductions in line with a modelled domestic pathway achieving the 1.5°C long-term temperature goal.

Ethiopia has put forward two targets in its NDC. One that it will achieving using its own resources and one that requires international support. We rate the country’s unconditional target compared to its fair share contribution and its conditional target compared to the level of reductions needed according to the modelled domestic pathways.

The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s Unconditional NDC target is consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. Ethiopia’s NDC unconditional target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort and is in the most stringent part of its fair share range.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

We evaluate the net zero target as: Average.

In June 2023, Ethiopia submitted a Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) for 2020-2050 (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2023). The LT-LEDS outlines three pathways that could lead to net zero by 2050 or sooner, but Ethiopia has not yet formally committed to a specific pathway.

Ethiopia could further advance its net zero target’s transparency, target architecture, and scope by enshrining its net zero target in law, providing information on whether its targets cover international aviation and shipping, and communicate transparent assumptions on carbon dioxide removal pathways.

For the full analysis click here here.