EU

Overall rating
Insufficient

Policies and action
against modelled domestic pathways

Insufficient
< 3°C World

NDC target
against modelled domestic pathways

Insufficient
< 3°C World

NDC target
against fair share

Insufficient
< 3°C World
Climate finance
Insufficient
Net zero target

year

2050

Comprehensiveness rated as

Acceptable
Land use & forestry
Not significant

Policies and action
against modelled domestic pathways

Insufficient

The CAT rates the EU’s current policies and actions against modelled domestic pathways as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the EU’s climate policies and action in 2030 need substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow the EU’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

With its current policies in place, the EU’s emissions will reach between 2,470 and 2,755 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF) in 2030. This current policies pathway does not set it on track to meet its existing 2030 NDC target of 2,307 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF) by 2030. This represents 3–9% ambition gap. For more details on our projections, see the Assumptions tab.

To be 1.5°C compatible, current policies would need to reach at least 1,815 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF) by 2030. Our 1.5°C modelled domestic pathway is based on global least-cost mitigation and defines the minimum level of emission reductions needed domestically to be 1.5°C compatible. It should be taken as the floor, and not ceiling, for domestic ambition.

Our planned policies projections of 2,370–2,400 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF) reflects the EU’s 2030 indicative renewable energy goal (of a further 2.5%, totalling 45%) as well as policy proposals that have been announced but remain to be adopted, most notably is the Energy Taxation Directive. If the EU adhered to the full list of planned policies, then it would be close to achieving its 2030 NDC target, missing the mark by 1–2%.

The full spectrum of policies proposed and adopted under the Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU legislative packages have been effective in improving projected emission reductions by 2030, though some of the regulations are yet to come into effect.

Despite the enormous regulatory exercise that the EU has been pursuing, many gaps still remain, with loopholes and lax enforcement mechanisms in the policy design. Additional action is required to address these issues, including:

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.

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