EU

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
Commitments with this rating fall well outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
Commitments with this rating fall outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
Commitments with this rating are in the least stringent part of their fair share range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
Commitments with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within the country’s fair share range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement. If all government targets were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are in the most stringent part of its fair share range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are more ambitious than what is considered a fair contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Pledges

Targets for 2020 and 2030 were calculated from the most recent data compiled by the EEA (European Environment Agency, 2018), which do not include emissions from aviation and shipping.

The calculations of the 2030 target reflect the agreement between the European Parliament and the Council concerning the inclusion of emissions and removals from the LULUCF from December 2017, which allows the utilisation of credits from removals from that sector of up to 280 MtCO2 in the period 2021–2030 to meet the emissions reduction target in the non-ETS sector (European Parliament, 2018a). Since the removals have not been included in 1990 emissions levels, this means potential for weakening of the 2030 emissions reduction target. For the calculations made here we assume that the member states will take advantage of this mechanisms throughout the whole of the 2021-2030 period. That would potentially weaken EU 2030 emissions reduction target by 28 MtCO2 annually or 0.8% of the 2030 emissions.

Current policy projections

The current policy projections are based on two scenarios: The “With Existing Measures” scenario by the European Environment Agency is a bottom-up scenario based on biannual reports by the member states. The 2019 version of the scenario has been prepared by the European Environment Agency based on the projections submitted by the EU member states reflecting legislative effort undertaken until early 2019 (European Environment Agency, 2019c).

The second scenario is based on the PRIMES model EUCO3232.5, which also takes into consideration the adoption of the renewable energy and energy efficiency goals (European Commission, 2019g). The figures were harmonized to the latest inventory historical data.

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