EU

Since our last update in February 2024, the CAT has not changed its methodology for quantifying the EU’s 2030 absolute emissions target. Our current approach aligns with the EEA’s quantification of the target (European Environment Agency, 2023c). Note that the EEA’s NDC quantification includes international aviation.

• We take the EU’s 1990 emissions including LULUCF in AR5 GWP, excluding indirect CO₂ emissions and emissions from international aviation, and apply a 55% reduction to this value (European Environment Agency, 2024).
• Then we add the difference between the sink (217 MtCO₂e) in 1990 and the sink of 225 MtCO₂e that the EU is allowed to use towards achieving its NDC target as outlined in the European Climate Law.
• As the CAT excludes LULUCF from absolute target values, we then remove sink of 225 MtCO₂e and convert the value from AR5 to AR4 using a conversion factor based on emissions in 1990.

While the LULUCF Regulation, passed in April 2023, adopts an EU-wide LULUCF sink of 310 MtCO₂e, the EU has made clear that this additional sink capacity will help it exceed its 55% target and not count towards achieving it (European Parliament, 2022; European Parliament & Council of the European Union, 2023b). As such, we do not exclude this additional LULUCF capacity from our quantification of the target.

CO₂ emissions from intra-EU flights, (as well as those departing flights to Switzerland and the United Kingdom) fall within the scope of the NDC as they are covered under the EU ETS. However, we do not consider these emissions to be part of the target quantification itself (as described above), but relevant to assessing compliance with it. As such, intra-EU CO₂ aviation are not included in our NDC target calculations.

The assessment of the EU’s policy projections reflects both policies and measures implemented at the national level (the top end of our range), as well as these adopted at the EU level but not yet transposed by the Member States (the bottom end of our range).

To reflect policies adopted at the national level, we use the EEA’s compilation of national projections prepared by Member States in 2023 (European Environment Agency, 2023b). We apply the growth rate from the ‘with existing measures’ (WEM) scenario for total GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF and excl. int. aviation) to total GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF and excl. int. aviation) in 2022.

To calculate the bottom end of the range, we replace estimates for power CO₂ emissions in the States Policies (STEPS) projections from the World Energy Outlook (WEO) with those from the Announced Pledges (APS) to account for the implementation of the 42.5% RE share in final gross consumption in the Fit for 55 package. From the Fit for 55 modelled projections, we take the MIX scenario which better reflects the current policies in place.

We then take the growth rate of this revised projection for total CO₂ emissions from WEO and apply that to total GHG emission from the energy sector in 2022 and extend out to 2035. Non-CO₂ emissions represent about 3% of energy sector emissions, so we think WEO is a good proxy for the entire sector. For all other sectors, we use sector-specific growth rates from EEA’s 2023 WEM scenario to extend each sector out to 2035 individually.

Note: Our data download includes projections until 2035; however, our graphics display the data until 2030 only.

We provide a range of projections for the EU’s planned policies.

To develop a planned policies projection for the bottom of the range (i.e. maximum emission reductions), we modified our energy sector estimate to take into account the 45% indicative RE target, up from the 42.5% included in our current policy projections’ lower bound. For the other sectors, we use sector-specific growth rates from EEA’s 2023 ‘with additional measures’ (WAM) scenario to extend each sector out to 2030 individually.

To devise the modified energy sector estimate, we took the energy emissions projections from the lower range of our current policy projection and multiplied it by the ratio between projected total energy emissions in 2030 with a 42.5% RE binding target compared to a 45% RE indicative target. We interpolated the data between total energy emissions in 2022 to this adjusted value for 2030 to complete the timeseries.

To calculate the ratio indicated above, we started with the 2030 emissions estimates provided by the European Commission in its initial modelling of the higher emissions reduction goal published in 2021 (European Commission, 2021c). We select the MIX scenario for the 2030 domestic energy related CO₂ emissions (i.e. excluding international aviation and shipping). This modelling assumed a renewable energy share of 40% and when corrected to remove international bunkers, assumes a final energy consumption of 751 Mtoe.

We calculated the emissions intensity for energy CO₂ emissions and then adjusted this figure to reflect the higher renewable energy share adopted by the EU (42.5% and 45%). To calculate energy CO₂ emissions we used this revised emissions intensity value and the Energy Efficiency Directive’s final energy consumption target of 11.7% below the 2020 EU Reference scenario we which calculate to be 726 Mtoe, excluding international aviation in 2030.

We used the 2021 ratio between energy CO2 and all gases to estimate total emissions in 2030. For the other value in the ratio, we applied the same methods as indicated earlier but used the indicative additional target included in the Renewable Energy Directive of 2.5% (or 45% share total).

To develop a planned policies projection for the upper end of the range (i.e. minimal emission reductions), we take the projected GHG emissions under the S3 scenario from the 2040 target communication impact assessment by the European Commission (in AR5) and convert it to AR4 while at the same time removing the influence of international aviation. In the EU’s Fit for 55 modelling scenarios, international aviation is included in the final energy consumption and GHG emissions (European Commission, 2021b). To omit it, we subtract the international aviation energy consumption and GHG emissions from the totals.

We take the EU’s modelled 2040 target from the S3 scenario presented in its impact assessment (European Commission, 2024b). We substitute the emissions from LULUCF in AR5 GWP and also excluding indirect CO₂ emissions and emissions from international aviation. We exclude the LULUCF emission but add in the planned assumptions for industrial carbon removals which include Direct Air Carbon Capture (DACCs) and Bioenergy Carbon Capture (BECCs). Regardless of scenario industrial removals are set at 75 MtCO₂e. Finally, we convert the value from AR5 to AR4 using a conversion factor based on emissions in 1990.

This results in an emission reduction of 86% GHG emission reduction from 1990 levels. We then apply the range of LULUCF assumptions (215, 317 and 376 MtCO₂e) to determine the resulting emission reductions percentages from 1990. Building on the 85% baseline emission reductions, the added LULUCF options would resulting in 90%, 92% and 94% emissions reductions.

In December 2018, the European Commission published its assessment of the climate neutrality goal by 2050 for the EU28 (European Commission, 2018a, 2018c, 2018b). In 2024, as part of the EU’s 2040 target proposal’s Impact Assessment (European Commission, 2024b), new data was made available on the emission projections to 2050. Out of the four scenarios, we take the S3 scenario which best reflects the likely pathway the EU has indicated it will strive for.

We take the GHG emission in 2050 (excluding LULUCF) in AR5 and add in the assumed industrial carbon removals from DACCs and BECCs from the 2040 Target Impact Assessment. We provide a single projection and not a range based on the S3 scenario in the 2040 target impact assessment. This approach reflects what the EU Commission said it will pursue. We convert the value from AR5 to AR4 using a conversion factor based on emissions in 1990 to get 295 MtCO₂e as our target excluding LULUCF.

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).

Some of the EU data used in our calculations is based on AR5 values. Please see the individual sections above for our conversion methods.