EU

Overall rating
Insufficient

Policies and action
against modelled domestic pathways

Insufficient
< 3°C World

NDC target
against modelled domestic pathways

Insufficient
< 3°C World

NDC target
against fair share

Insufficient
< 3°C World
Climate finance
Insufficient
Net zero target

year

2050

Comprehensiveness rated as

Acceptable
Land use & forestry
Not significant

Target Overview

In October 2023, the EU submitted a revised NDC to the UNFCCC (Spain and the European Commission, 2023). Its target of reducing emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030 (incl. LULUCF and international aviation) is the same as the previous NDC from December 2020. However, the EU has increased its land sector target by 85 MtCO2e which is what enables the EU to assert that it will overachieve its 55% target. The CAT rates this updated target as ‘did not increase ambition’ because it does not lead to a lower emissions limit (excl. LULUCF and international aviation) compared to the previous NDC.

Compared to the previous NDC update in 2020, this NDC update clarifies that only CO2 emissions from flights within the European Economic Area, departing flights to Switzerland and departing flights to the United Kingdom are included in the goal.

The EU’s 2030 NDC is not close to the 1.5°C limit when compared to modelled domestic pathways. It remains far behind on its fair share contribution to the 1.5°C limit and needs to substantially increase its support for emissions reductions abroad and climate finance.

In February 2024, the European Commission proposed a 2040 target of a 90% net GHG emissions reduction below 1990 levels. The CAT quantifies the 2040 target to be 660 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) or an 85% reduction from 1990. While the 2040 target does align with what would at least be needed domestically to be aligned with 1.5°C compared to modelled domestic pathways, the CAT believes that the EU should adopt at least a 95% reduction below 1990 levels (incl. LULUCF) by 2040 seeing as it is is failing to contribute its fair share to global climate action.

EU - Main climate targets
2030 unconditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC Economy-wide net domestic reduction of at least 55% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF 2307 MtCO2e
[52% below 1990]
[44% below 2010]
Status Submitted on 19 October 2023
Net zero & other long term targets
Formulation of target Net zero domestic GHG emissions by 2050 at the latest
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF 295 MtCO2e
[94% below 1990]
[93% below 2010]
Status Submitted on 06 March 2020

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