Germany

Historical emissions are taken from the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) published in March 2026 (Umweltbundesamt, 2026b). UBA provides the data using Global Warming Potentials from AR5.

Note there is an unexplained jump from -18 to -80 MtCO₂e in sinks from forests in the inventory data from 1990 to 1991.

The Federal Climate Change Act (KSG) sets interim targets of -65% by 2030 and -88% by 2040 (compared to 1990 levels). The target is calculated using sector-specific emission budgets monitored annually by UBA and the Expert Council on Climate Issues (EKR). What we rate in the case of Germany is not the EU NDC but this “national target” instead.

The current policy projections are adapted from the projections report (“Projektionsbericht 2026”) published by UBA in March 2026, which includes all measures that were agreed by the end of November 2025 (Umweltbundesamt, 2026c).

We use UBA’s With Implemented Measures (MMS) scenario as the lower bound of our projections. For the upper bound, we draw on the assessment of the EKR, which concluded that Germany is likely to exceed its emissions budget under the Federal Climate Change Act (Klimaschutzgesetz) by 60–100 MtCO₂e by 2030 and identified implementation risks that could lead to higher emissions than projected by UBA.

To reflect these risks, the upper bound assumes a more gradual decline in emissions than in the UBA scenario, resulting in cumulative emissions that exceed the 2021–2030 emissions budget by around 100 MtCO₂e. This approach captures the uncertainty surrounding policy implementation and emission reductions while remaining consistent with the Expert Council’s assessment.

The resulting range spans from the original UBA MMS scenario as the lower bound to the adjusted pathway as the upper bound.

Germany aims to become climate neutral by 2045, meaning it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by balancing remaining emissions with removals. According to Germany’s Climate Change Act, the 2045 climate neutrality target includes a sink of 40 MtCO₂e to compensate for some remaining emissions sources. We thus estimate the total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in 2045 at 40 MtCO₂e.

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for all its figures and time series.