Germany

Germany has the following national climate change mitigation targets (German Government, 2021a):

• 65% national emissions reduction below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF by 2030 (up from 55%)
• a new, interim target of 88% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF by 2040
• climate neutrality by 2045

Germany did not submit its own NDC but is part of the EU’s target of 55% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF and the EU climate neutrality goal for 2050.

CAT rates the 2030 target as “Almost sufficient” compared to modelled domestic pathways, and “Insufficient” when compared to Germany’s fair share. CAT analysis finds that to be in line with the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement, Germany’s 2030 emissions reduction target should aim for reductions of at least 69% below 1990 levels domestically. To fully contribute its fair share, Germany would also have to significantly increase its international climate finance.

The German climate law includes a breakdown of the target to sectors until 2030, but not beyond.

*For details on how Climate Action Tracker calculated the target values see the Assumptions tab

In June 2021, in the wake of a Constitutional Court ruling that Germany’s climate targets were not strong enough, the government adopted an amendment to its 2019 climate law. The court ruled that the previous climate law from 2019 risked delaying action and putting too much burden on future generations, and asked for more clarity on the trajectory beyond 2030.

The 2021 amendment of the climate revised the targets as follows (German Government, 2021a):

• 65% national emissions reduction below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF by 2030 – up from a 55% reduction in the 2019 climate law
• 88% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF by 2040 – an additional interim goal that was not part of the 2019 climate law
• climate neutrality by 2045 – five years earlier than the 2050 net zero date from the 2019 climate law.

Overall, the amendment includes stronger targets than the original law. The 65% reduction is close to the 69% that CAT suggests as the minimum necessary domestic effort (CAT, 2021).

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against indicative national emissions from global least-cost emissions pathways (called modelled domestic pathways). For assessing targets against the fair share, we consider both a country’s domestic emission reductions and any emissions it supports abroad through the use of market mechanisms or other ways of support, as relevant.

Germany does not intend to use market mechanisms and will achieve its national target through domestic action alone. We rate its national target against both global domestic pathways and fairness metrics.

We rate Germany’s 2030 reduction target of 65% below 1990 levels as “Almost sufficient” when compared to modelled emissions pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Germany’s national target in 2030 is not yet consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Germany’s approach, warming could be held at—but not well below—2°C. While the proposed target represents a significant improvement compared to its previous target, Germany’s new target is not stringent enough to limit warming to 1.5°C and needs further improvement.

We rate Germany’s 2030 target of 65% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share emissions allocation. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Germany’s national target in 2030 needs substantial improvement to be consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Germany should both further increase its emissions reduction target and provide significantly more and predictable finance to others to meet its fair-share contribution. Germany’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Germany’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Germany’s international climate finance is rated “Insufficient” (see below) and is not enough to improve Germany’s fair share rating.

Germany’s international public climate finance contributions are better than most developed countries but still rated “Insufficient.” Germany has committed to increasing its climate finance but contributions to date have been low compared to its fair share as assessed by the CAT.

To improve its rating, Germany needs to increase its international climate finance contributions by around a factor of three in the period post-2020 and urgently stop funding fossil fuel projects abroad. At COP26, Germany signed a declaration to stop financing fossil fuels abroad, but the sector guidelines for export credits still allows investments in existing and new fossil fuel infrastructure outside Germany's borders (Die Bundesregierung, 2023).

Germany is the biggest European climate finance donor. According to the CAT estimates, its contributions represent more than half of the EU contributions. However, due to the high fair share requirements assessed by the CAT, Germany’s current contributions remain “Highly insufficient.”

Most German contributions for climate finance are distributed via bilateral development cooperation. Funding is implemented by Gesellschaft für internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and KfW Development Bank. The International Climate Initiative (IKI) is a separate funding mechanism of the Climate and Economics Ministry (BMWK), the Environment Ministry (BMU), and the Federal Foreign Office (AA). A smaller share is disbursed through contributions to multilateral climate funds. A significant share of the finance takes the form of grants, but Germany also relies on other financial instruments, such as concessional loans (Deutsche Klimafinanzierung, 2021).

Germany remains committed to the global USD 100bn goal in climate finance for developing countries per year through 2025, but the USD 100bn goal in itself is insufficient post-2020. At the G7 Summit in June 2021, Germany committed to increase climate finance by EUR 2bn to a total level of EUR 6bn annually by 2025 (Kanzleramt Deutschland, 2021).

In 2022, the German government successfully reached its objective of providing more than EUR 6bn for climate finance (BMZ, 2023). The increase in climate finance is due to the growing demand for climate programmes in recipient countries and exceptional factors, such as special funds for food security in Ukraine, which are counted towards the goal. Initially, the government had projected around EUR 4.3 bn annually from 2021 to 2023 (Kowalzig, 2022).

However, the forecast for 2023 and 2024 is significantly lower, at around EUR 5.14bn and EUR 5.3bn, respectively. The planned cuts, starting in 2025, are a cause for concern. The German government intends to make further cuts in development cooperation, including climate finance, which will amount to billions of euros. This decision, led by Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner, is part of a worrying trend. These cuts could undermine long-term climate projects, potentially affecting bilateral commitments crucial for climate initiatives in recipient countries (Kowalzig, 2024). In 2023, during the Petersberg Dialogue, Germany announced EUR 2bn of climate finance for the replenishment of the Green Climate Fund, a third more than in the previous round (The German Government, 2023).

The Climate Action Tracker climate finance rating focuses on finance for climate change mitigation, and the data shows an increase in this area over the years, which results in a positive rating of the contribution's trend. A clear and sustained increase in international climate mitigation finance across all areas is fundamental.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.

In June 2021, Germany adopted its 2045 net zero target in its revised climate law. The net zero target generally covers all key elements but fails to meet best practice standards for some of them. Germany also falls under the European Union net zero target (CAT, 2024).

Germany’s target covers all sectors and gases, underpinned by an emissions pathway to 2040 and the communication of binding sectoral targets until 2030. International aviation and shipping remain outside of the target’s scope. A periodic and legally-binding review process of measures and interim targets by an Expert Council is in place. Germany provides separate reduction and removal targets with regards to LULUCF but remains unclear on any other carbon removal. The net zero target is enshrined in law in Germany’s climate law 2021.

The German government has failed to provide explicit and transparent assumptions on some key elements of its net zero target. The proposed measures aim to achieve net zero on Germany’s own territory, but the climate law explicitly reserves the right to use international offset credits. Lastly, Germany also fails to communicate transparent assumptions on carbon storage and removal.

For the full analysis click here.