Historical emissions are taken from the PRIMAP data for the period 1990-2021 (Gütschow et al., 2022).
We estimate emissions in 2022 using a gas-by-gas approach. For CO2 emissions, we use the growth rates from the Global Carbon Budget estimates for India (Global Carbon Project, 2022). For F-gases, we use GDP growth as a proxy and apply that to 2021 levels (IMF, 2023). We assume no impact from the pandemic on agriculture and waste, the main sectors behind CH4 and N2O emissions, and use the five-year historical trend to estimate those emissions.
LULUCF emissions are taken directly from India’s third Biennial Report (MoEFCC, 2021). These estimates are calculated using global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s second assessment report. We have not converted these into AR4 values as the contribution from non-CO2 gases is negligible.
NDC and other targets
Emissions intensity target
We estimate 2030 GDP using IMF GDP growth estimates for 2023-2028 and trend estimates for the rest of the decade (IMF, 2023). Historical data for 2005 is from the Reserve Bank of India’s GDP data (RBI, 2022).
We calculate the emissions intensity in 2005 using our historic emissions estimate and RBI GDP data and then apply a 45% reduction. We multiply this emissions intensity level to our 2030 GDP estimate to derive our emissions estimate.
Note: We have changed the input data source we use from GDP from previous CAT assessment, which impacts the quantification of this target. Had we continued to use World Bank data, our estimate for this target would be 4.3 GtCO2e which is lower than our last update due to slower projected GDP growth over the decade. We switched sources as we consider the IMF data to be the more likely source the government would use to assess compliance. India did not provide any updated information on its GDP assumptions in its updated NDC. Its original NDC submission includes GDP which is comparable to IMF data for 2014. If we used that estimate for 2030, India’s target would be around 7 GtCO2e. India can improve the transparency of its target by providing further information and clarity on its assumptions and projections.
As India has a separate target to enhance its carbon sink, we assume that LULUCF has been excluded from its emissions intensity target. It has not provided a historic estimate for LULUCF for 2005 in its GHG inventory.
50% non-fossil installed capacity target
The 50% capacity target is based on the current policy pathway (details below) and is calculated by replacing non-fossil power with fossil power. We use the generating factor of the underlying scenario (WEO or draft NEP) to calculate the extent of non-fossil generation and then subtract that from total generation to derive the new level of fossil generation. We use the emissions factor of the underlying scenario to determine the level of emissions and then harmonise the anticipated higher emissions to our current policy scenario.
Note: We will update our target calculation to take into consideration the final version of the NEP in our next update.
500 GW target (COP26 announcement)
The lower bound of our current policy projection is based on the draft NEP, which includes around 545 GW in 2030 and so no adjustments have been made to it.
The upper bound of our current policy projection is based on the IEA WEO 2022, which includes 491 GW of non-fossil capacity. We adjust this to 500 GW, assume total generation and the capacity factors remain constant and use those to calculate the estimated remaining fossil capacity and then adjust the emissions estimates accordingly.
Net Zero target
We estimate India’s emissions in 2070 for the purpose of our global temperature estimate. We assume that India achieves the top end of its carbon sink NDC target of 3 GtCO2,which we average over the 2016-2030 period for an annual additional sink of 200 MtCO2. We add this to the last historic emissions data for LULUCF (308 MtCO2 in 2016), for an estimated sink of 508 MtCO2, and assume that this will reflect India’s residual level of emissions.
The assessment of the 2020 pledge is based on our historic 2020 emission data and 2020 GDP data from the IMF (IMF, 2023).
The 2020 pledge excludes agriculture emissions. We calculation the emissions intensity for the year 2005 excluding emissions from that sector and then apply the target range to that emissions intensity level. We then calculation the 2020 emissions target level by the target emissions intensity value by 2020 GDP. We then add 2020 agricultural emissions to those figures, to get an emissions value that covers the entire economy.
Note: We have changed the input data source we use from GDP from previous CAT assessment, which impacts our assessment of compliance with this target. Please refer to the Targets tab for further details.
Current policy projections
Upper end of scenario range: We use the growth rates from the IEA’s 2022 stated policies scenario for India’s CO2 emissions. The IEA’s CO2 emissions estimate now includes industry process emissions and thus is a good proxy for all of India’s CO2 emissions (IEA, 2022).
Lower end of scenario range: We use the CO2 emissions estimates in the draft National Electricity Plan (NEP) for 2022-2032 for the power sector but otherwise continue to use the IEA data for the rest of the CO2 emissions (Ministry of Power, 2022c). India reports data on a Q2 to Q1 of the following year basis. For the sake of simplicity, we allot the data for a fiscal year (e.g. April 2021-March 2022) to the calendar year (e.g. 2021). We extend the draft NEP2022 emissions data for 2032-2035 using a 5-year historic trend.
To replace the power sector emissions in the total CO2 emissions, from WEO, we replace the power sector emissions in the unharmonised data sets and then assume a constant ratio with our WEO emissions harmonised to the latest historical data to derive estimates for 2030-2035. We use interpolation to complete the timeseries for 2023-2030. NEP’s power sector emissions are lower than WEO’s for the historic timeseries and so assuming a constant ratio throughout would result in an artificial drop in emissions in 2023.
Note: India published its final NEP plan after we had completed our data update. The final plan eliminated some of the additional coal capacity envisaged for the period up to FY2026, but added substantially more coal for the period up to FY2031. Less coal power would also be retired during this period (4.6 GW under the draft vs 2.1 GW in the final version). Overall, India anticipates generating more power from coal throughout the decade, up to 18% more in FY2026 and 20% more in FY2031. Yet, it estimates that CO2 emissions will only increase slightly in FY2026 (up 3% or 27Mt) and actually decrease in FY2031 (down 7% or -80 Mt). We will incorporate the final NEP plan fully in our next update, however do not anticipate any change to our ratings of India’s current policy or the broad trend it is emissions. Given the additional coal power capacity envisaged in the final NEP, we think that our approach of taking a five-year trend to estimate power sector emissions out to 2035 is robust. (By contrast, the WEO SPS2022 sees emissions from India’s power sector peaking between 2030-2035).
We use the US EPA non-CO2 emissions projection growth rates for the CH4, N20 and F-gases and harmonise these to the latest historic year (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019).
Note: Our data download includes projections until 2035; however, our graphics display the data until 2030 only.
Global warming potentials
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series, unless otherwise stated. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).