Historical emissions are taken from the PRIMAP data for the period 1990-2022 (Gütschow & Pflüger, 2023).
LULUCF emissions are taken directly from India’s third Biennial Report (MoEFCC, 2021). These estimates are calculated using global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s second assessment report. We have not converted these into AR4 values as the contribution from non-CO2 gases is negligible.
NDC and other targets
Emissions intensity target
Historical GDP data for 1990-2018 is from Reserve Bank of India’s GDP data and 2019-2022 is from IMF (IMF, 2023a; India, 2020). We estimate 2030 GDP using IMF GDP growth estimates for 2023-2028 and trend estimates for the rest of the decade (IMF, 2023a).
We calculate the emissions intensity in 2005 using our historic emissions estimate and RBI GDP data and then apply a 45% reduction. We multiply this emissions intensity level to our 2030 GDP estimate to derive our emissions estimate.
Note: India did not provide any updated information on its GDP assumptions in its updated NDC. Its original NDC submission includes GDP which is comparable to IMF data for 2014. If we used that estimate for 2030, India’s target would be around 7 GtCO2e. India can improve the transparency of its target by providing further information and clarity on its assumptions and projections.
As India has a separate target to enhance its carbon sink, we assume that LULUCF has been excluded from its emissions intensity target. It has not provided a historic estimate for LULUCF for 2005 in its GHG inventory.
50% non-fossil installed capacity target
The 50% capacity target is based on the current policy pathway (details below) and is calculated by replacing non-fossil power with fossil power. We use the generating factor of the underlying scenario (WEO2023 or NEP2023) to calculate the extent of non-fossil generation and then subtract that from total generation to derive the new level of fossil generation. We use the emissions factor of the underlying scenario to determine the level of emissions and then harmonise the anticipated higher emissions to our current policy scenario.
The assessment of the 2020 pledge is based on our historic 2020 emission data and 2020 GDP data from the IMF (IMF, 2023a).
The 2020 pledge excludes agriculture emissions. We calculation the emissions intensity for the year 2005 excluding emissions from that sector and then apply the target range to that emissions intensity level. We then calculation the 2020 emissions target level by the target emissions intensity value by 2020 GDP. We then add 2020 agricultural emissions to those figures, to get an emissions value that covers the entire economy.
Net-zero target and other long-term targets
We estimate India’s emissions in 2070 consistent with its net zero target for the purpose of our global temperature estimate.
We assume that India achieves the top end of its carbon sink NDC target of 3 GtCO2, which we average over the 2016-2030 period for an annual additional sink of 200 MtCO2. We add this to the last historic emissions data for LULUCF (308 MtCO2 in 2016), for an estimated sink of 508 MtCO2 in 2070, and assume that this will reflect India’s residual level of emissions of its net-zero target.
Current policy projections
Upper end of the scenario range: We use the growth rates from the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023 (WEO 2023) stated policies scenario for India’s CO2 emissions. The IEA’s CO2 emissions estimate now includes industry process emissions and thus is a good proxy for all of India’s CO2 emissions (IEA, 2023).
Lower end of the scenario range: We use the CO2 emissions estimates in the final National Electricity Plan (NEP2023) for 2022-2032 for the power sector and use a 5-year historic trend to extent to 2035 (Ministry of Power, 2023b). We use the WEO 2023 data for the rest of the CO2 emissions. India reports data on a Q2 to Q1 of the following year basis. For the sake of simplicity, we allot the data for a fiscal year (e.g. April 2021-March 2022) to the calendar year (e.g. 2021).
To replace the power sector emissions in the total CO2 emissions from WEO2023, we replace the power sector emissions in the unharmonised data sets and then assume a constant ratio with our WEO2023 emissions harmonised to the latest historical data to derive estimates for 2030-2035. We use interpolation to complete the timeseries for 2023-2030. NEP’s power sector emissions are lower than WEO’s for the historic timeseries and so assuming a constant ratio throughout would result in an artificial drop in emissions in 2023.
We use the US EPA non-CO2 emissions projection growth rates for the CH4, N20 and F-gases and harmonise these to the latest historic year (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019).
Note: Our data download includes projections until 2035; however, our graphics display the data until 2030 only.
Global warming potentials
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series, unless otherwise stated. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).