Kazakhstan

Note: Kazakhstan submitted an updated NDC on 27 June 2023. We are classify the NDC as 'did not increase ambition'. The full analysis is coming soon.

Kazakhstan signed the Paris Agreement on 2 August 2016 and ratified it on 6 December 2016. In its NDC, Kazakhstan set an economy-wide unconditional target aiming to reduce GHG emissions by 15% below 1990 levels (including LULUCF) by 2030. When excluding LULUCF emissions, Kazakhstan’s target is equivalent to 14% below 1990 levels by 2030, or an emissions level not exceeding 331 MtCO₂e (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2016a, 2022).

Kazakhstan also has a conditional target to reduce emissions (including LULUCF) by 25% below 1990 levels by 2030. This equates to 24% below 1990 levels when excluding LULUCF, or an emissions level not exceeding 293 MtCO₂e. This target is subject to “additional international investments, access to low carbon technologies transfer mechanism, green climate funds and flexible mechanism for country with economy in transition” (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2016a).

Kazakhstan has a net zero target of reaching “carbon neutrality” by 2060 but has not yet published its long-term strategy. The first iteration of Kazakhstan’s carbon neutrality strategy outlines a net zero pathway with a 2030 emissions level of 308 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF, which is more ambitious than its unconditional NDC target.

Note: Kazakhstan submitted an updated NDC on 27 June 2023. We are classify the NDC as 'did not increase ambition'. The full analysis is coming soon.

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. Kazakhstan will need support to achieve the reductions needed within its borders.

Kazakhstan has put forward two targets in its NDC: one that it will achieve using its own resources and one that requires international support. We rate the country’s unconditional target against its fair share contribution (‘Unconditional NDC target against Fair Share’) and its conditional target against the level of reductions needed within its border (‘Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways’).

We rate Kazakhstan’s conditional NDC as “Almost sufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s conditional NDC target for 2030 is not yet consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Kazakhstan’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C. The conditional target is close to the upper limit of this rating category, meaning that a small change in the numbers could lead to a worse rating.

Whether Kazakhstan should receive some climate finance from abroad to reduce its emissions is a matter of debate. Our methods do not provide a clear answer to this question. On balance, the CAT methodology shows that Kazakhstan needing a small but important amount of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals (see above figure). Either way, the NDC target achieved with Kazakhstan’s own resources (Unconditional NDC target against Fair Share) would need to be increased significantly to be in line with the 1.5°C limit.

In accordance with the COP conclusion (FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.4, section V.C.) and following ratification by Kazakhstan of the Kyoto Protocol on 19 June 2009 and its entry into force on 17 September 2009, Kazakhstan is considered an Annex I Party under the Protocol but remains a non-Annex I Party for the purposes of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This means that Kazakhstan is eligible to receive climate finance but follows the same reporting requirements as an Annex I Party.

We rate Kazakhstan’s 2030 unconditional NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s unconditional NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit when compared to its fair share.

Kazakhstan’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Kazakhstan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Kazakhstan first announced its intention to reach “carbon neutrality” (net zero CO₂ emissions) by 2060 during the Climate Ambition Summit in December 2020 (Satubaldina, 2021b).

The following year, the Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources released a Doctrine (Strategy) of Achieving Carbon Neutrality Until 2060, which was approved by the President and entered into force. The Doctrine is described as a vision of a potential carbon neutrality pathway that includes sectoral decarbonisation plans and an emissions pathway.

In the carbon neutral emissions scenario, Kazakhstan’s total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) would reach about 77 MtCO₂e in 2060, with the LULUCF sector becoming an emissions sink of -45 MtCO₂e and -31 MtCO₂e of emission removals coming from carbon capture technologies (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2021).

In December 2021, the Prime Minister ordered the establishment of a new Project Office working on the transition towards carbon neutrality and on the finalisation of the Strategy of Achieving Carbon Neutrality Until 2060 (Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2021). Kazakhstan is expected to adopt its long-term strategy by the end of 2022.