Kenya

The CAT’s current policy projections¹ for Kenya covers a range of GHG emissions pathways.

Due to a lack of clarity around climate policies and the state of their implementation, the CAT uses the 2017 Update of Kenya’s Emissions Baseline Projections as the upper bound of its current policy scenario. The overall change in emissions is significant as, under the upper range of the current policy projections, total emissions in 2030 will be nearly 14% below the original BAU emission baseline projection used for the NDC analysis (MENR, 2017a). The upper range of current policy projections would take total national emissions exactly to the level of the NDC target of 110 MtCO₂e in 2030, if emissions from land-use, land use change and forestry are excluded.

The lower bound builds on the Updated Baseline scenario but includes the current pathway for electricity supply emissions in the most recent electricity supply plan (2017-2037 LCPDP). If national GHG emissions follow the lower range of the current policy projections trajectory Kenya will overachieve its NDC target, as total national emissions in 2030 would be at only 89 MtCO₂e, excluding LULUCF.

The above mentioned can exclusively be attributed to changes in emissions from the electricity supply sector with significant downward adjustments of 53% and 99% from the original NDC emission baseline projection considering the upper and lower range of the current policy projections, respectively. As a general trend, when excluding developments in the electricity supply sector, baseline emissions in the upper range of the current policy projections even rise slightly by 2030, compared to the original baseline in the NDC. This theoretically increases the pressure on the other sectors to successfully implement all planned mitigation actions in order to be prepared if the expected developments in the electricity supply sector change.

1 | If not stated otherwise ‘current policy projection’ covers both the upper and lower range of the scenario. Values and figures of upper and lower range of the scenario only differ in the electricity supply sector.

As of 2018, the installed grid capacity in Kenya was 2,351 MW, with a peak load of 1,802 MW (ABiQ, 2019). The energy mix in Kenya is dominated by renewable energy technologies (85% of installed capacity) (ABiQ, 2019; IRENA, 2019), and it is the country’s aim to be powered entirely by green energy by 2020 (Capital FM Kenya, 2018). However, these plans are in stark contrast to plans to explore the use of fossil energy resources in the future.

Coal is one of a few domestic fossil energy resources available in Kenya for extraction and potential use in power generation. To date, coal-based power generation has not been deployed in East Africa (Mpungu, 2019). This is bound to change, if Kenya implements its plans to build the Lamu coal power plant, a 981 MW power plant to be commissioned by 2024, and a 960 MW coal-fired power plant in Kitui, which is scheduled for 2034-36, according to the 2017 – 2037 Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) (Republic of Kenya, 2018). In June, however, the Kenyan National Environment Tribunal withdrew the plant’s Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) licence because of failure to conduct effective public participation. The project developer Amu Power can apply for a new license after completing another ESIA, which delays but does not stop the development process (Land Rights Now, 2019). While the plant is backed by local and Chinese investors, in November 2019, the African Development Bank announced it will not fund the project, in line with the bank’s plans to not fund any future coal projects (Winning, 2019).

Building coal-fired power plants in Kenya is inconsistent with the Paris Agreement. In Paris Agreement compatible pathways for Middle East and Africa, coal power generation would need to be reduced 80% by 2030 below 2010 levels, leading to a phase-out by 2034 (Yanguas Parra et al., 2019).

As most of Kenya’s energy sector institutions are either fully (Geothermal Development Company, Kenya Electricity Transmission Company and Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy Corporation) or partially state-owned (Kenya Electricity Generation Company and Kenya Power), the government’s ability to steer through electricity generation projects can be considered high.

The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) is in charge of regulating and monitoring the electricity sector and is also heading Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) Committee. The LCPDP is the major planning process in the electricity supply sector in Kenya and deals with capacity planning, demand projections and transmission investment requirements summarised in a 20-year rolling LCPDP on a biennial basis (Republic of Kenya, 2018).

When comparing the recent LCPDP with previous versions of the planning document, the most notable difference is that demand projections have been revised downwards substantially (Republic of Kenya, 2018).

Under the upper range of the current policy projection, absolute emissions in 2015 are 1.2 MtCO₂e and projected to grow to 20.9 MtCO₂e in 2030, corresponding to 19% of total national emissions in 2030 (MENR, 2017a). However, the current pathway for electricity supply emissions in the 2017-2037 Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) is even lower than in the Updated Baseline. Thus, under the lower range of the current policy projection, absolute emissions are projected to even decrease to 0.3 MtCO₂e in 2030, corresponding to 0.34 % of total national emissions in 2030 (Republic of Kenya, 2018).

Thus, absolute emissions from the electricity supply sector decrease by 23.8 MtCO₂e and 44.4 MtCO₂e in 2030 compared to the NDC baseline under the upper and lower range of the current policy projections, respectively.

The electricity supply sector’s original NDC target was to reduce 10 MtCO₂e by 2030, corresponding to 22% of the overall abatement task (Republic of Kenya, 2015). Taking into account the difference between the NDC baseline and current policy projections, including both the upper and the lower range, the electricity supply sector overachieves its sectoral emissions reduction target by far. The latter is mainly due to demand projections in the electricity sector that have been revised downwards and the corresponding effect on the composition of electricity generation technologies.

While the expected high demand was originally to be covered to a large extent by coal-fired power plants, the 2017-2037 LCPDP indicates that the proposed coal-based power plant would be grossly underutilised by forecasting an average capacity factor of 8% for coal-fired power plant, due to its economic disadvantages compared to other planned generation options (Republic of Kenya, 2018).

According to the NDC Sector Analysis, a government report that examines options to deliver on Kenya’s contribution in six mitigation sectors, the priority mitigation action for the electricity supply sector is the expansion of geothermal generation, envisioning a total of 5,510 MW geothermal capacity by 2030 (MENR, 2017b). The estimated emissions abatement potential of this capacity expansion is 15.2 MtCO2e by 2030. However, according to the 2017-2037 LCPDP, this target will not be met as total installed capacity of geothermal generation by 2030 is projected to be 1,896 MW (under the Reference Scenario) (Republic of Kenya, 2018).

Notwithstanding this missed target for geothermal energy, the sector is on track to exceed its emission reductions goals, due to the much lower demand projections as well as restricted amount of generation from new coal capacity. This development would ultimately ensure that Kenya reaches or even overachieves its NDC target, although not all sectors achieve their emissions reductions target, as the following sections will indicate.

Energy demand is divided among three main types of energy carriers: fossil fuels, biomass and electricity. Fossil fuels and biomass are used to produce heat. Kenyans rely on the traditional use of biomass as the primary energy source for heating and cooking. About 87% of the rural population uses firewood for cooking and 82% of the urban population uses charcoal for cooking (MENR, 2017b).

Charcoal production is governed in Kenya by the Charcoal Rules, under the Forest Act 2005, although it occurs almost entirely in the informal sector (SEI, 2013). The government, in partnership with stakeholders, has taken several energy efficiency and conservation initiatives. The Ministry of Energy has worked with the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) to establish a Centre for Energy Efficiency and Conservation that promotes energy efficiency in private sector companies and public institutions such as government buildings. The Ministry of Energy has further implemented improved cookstoves programmes, and developed regulations that influence the uptake of climate related technologies, such as for solar water heating, solar PV systems and cookstoves. Kenya Power, a national electric utility company, has implemented a programme to distribute compact fluorescent lights (MENR, 2017b).

Energy demand emissions are those related to the combustion of fossil fuels by residential and commercial energy end-users. According to the NDC baseline, absolute emissions from the energy demand subsector are projected to grow from 7.1 MtCO₂e in 2015 to 10.6 MtCO₂e in 2030 while the contribution of energy demand emissions to overall national emissions is expected to decrease from 12% in 2015 to 8% in 2030 (excl. LULUCF) (Republic of Kenya, 2015).

Under the current policy projection, absolute emissions in the energy demand sector in 2015 are 7.4 MtCO₂e and projected to grow to 12 MtCO₂e in 2030, corresponding to 11% of total national emissions by 2030 (MENR, 2017a).

The sector’s NDC target is to reduce emissions by 6.5 MtCO₂e by 2030, corresponding to 14% of the overall abatement task (Republic of Kenya, 2015). Taking into account the difference between the NDC baseline and current policy projections, the total emissions reductions in the energy demand sector would need to be 7.9 MtCO₂e by 2030 in order to achieve the NDC target.

The priority mitigation actions for the energy demand subsector are related to the dissemination of improved cookstoves to reduce charcoal and firewood consumption, with a total abatement potential of 6.02 MtCO₂e by 2030 and to the uptake of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stoves in urban areas, with an estimated abatement potential of 1.83 MtCO₂e by 2030 (MENR, 2017b). Another mitigation action includes co-generation in agriculture to produce biogas from agricultural residues for use in industrial-scale applications, with a total abatement potential of 1.72 MtCO₂e by 2030. Further policy actions considered in the energy demand sector cover the distribution of solar lanterns (abatement potential of 1.93 MtCO₂e by 2030) and solar thermal water heaters (0.11 MtCO₂e), as well as the uptake of energy efficient lightbulbs (1.29 MtCO₂e) and appliances (0.11 MtCO₂e) (MENR, 2017b). The total abatement potential in the energy demand sector is estimated to be 13.01 MtCO₂e by 2030, if all mitigation actions are fully and successfully implemented. While this suggests that there is a certain degree of flexibility to reach the sector’s share of total emissions reductions by 2030, it also shows the potential for the NDC target to be updated.

Kenya’s industrial sector is the largest in the Eastern African region, underscoring the importance of the sector to the economy of Kenya and neighbouring countries. In 2015, the manufacturing component of the industrial sector contributed 10.6% to Kenya’s GDP, second after the agricultural sector (MENR, 2017b). Industrial process emissions in Kenya are dominated by the cement and charcoal manufacturing industries (MENR, 2017b). The manufacture of cement is identified as a core industrial sector, with a growing demand for cement from within Kenya and from neighbouring countries. Charcoal production uses mainly traditional inefficient technologies and the sector remains largely informal (MENR, 2017b).

According to the NDC baseline, absolute emissions from the industrial processes sector are projected to grow from 3.3 MtCO₂e in 2015 to 5.9 MtCO₂e in 2030 while the contribution of industrial process emissions to total national emissions is expected to roughly remain at 6% (excl. LULUCF) (Republic of Kenya, 2015).

Under the current policy projection, absolute emissions in 2015 are 3.8 MtCO₂e and projected to grow to 6.7 MtCO₂e in 2030, corresponding to 6% of total national emissions by 2030 (MENR, 2017a).

The sector’s NDC target is to reduce emissions by 0.8 MtCO₂e by 2030, corresponding to 2% of the overall emissions reduction target of 30% by 2030 (Republic of Kenya, 2015). Taking into account the difference between the NDC baseline and current policy projections, the total emissions reductions in the industrial processes sector would need to be 2.6 MtCO2e by 2030 in order to achieve the NDC target.

The priority mitigation actions for the industrial processes sector are related to cement energy efficiency improvements and improved charcoal production systems with abatement potential of 0.23 MtCO₂e and 1.68 MtCO₂e by 2030, respectively (MENR, 2017b). Both mitigation actions together have an abatement potential of 1.9 MtCO₂e.

If the industrial processes sector aims at achieving the updated share of the emissions reductions needed for the NDC target, without benefitting from potential overachievement of other sectors, existing mitigation actions are insufficient, as the total abatement potential is less than the sectoral reduction target under the current policy projection scenario.

Kenya has experienced high rates of urbanisation and development, but transport systems and infrastructure have not kept pace. Traffic conditions in Nairobi and other major cities are characterised by congested and unsafe roadways that contribute to local air pollution and significant economic losses (MENR, 2017b).

The Integrated National Transport Policy of 2009 puts emphasis on an efficient transport system, noting that it is an important prerequisite for facilitating national and regional integration, promoting trade and economic development, contributing to poverty reduction and wealth creation, and achieving the objectives of Vision 2030. Kenya has implemented many infrastructural development programmes for the transport sector over the last 15 years that aim to meet the growing demand for transportation services arising from economic growth and rapid urbanisation (MENR, 2017b).

According to the NDC baseline, absolute emissions from the transport sector are projected to grow from 9.8 MtCO₂e in 2015 to 22.6 MtCO₂e in 2030 mainly because of an increase in the number of passenger and freight vehicles on the road. The contribution of transport sector emissions to total national emissions is, however, expected to remain constant at 17% (excl. LULUCF) (Republic of Kenya, 2015).

Under the current policy projections, absolute emissions in the transportation sector in 2015 are 11.4 MtCO₂e and projected to grow to 23.4 MtCO₂e in 2030, corresponding to 21% of total national emissions by 2030 (MENR, 2017a).

The sector’s NDC target is to reduce emissions by 3.7 MtCO₂e by 2030, corresponding to 8% of the overall abatement task (Republic of Kenya, 2015). Taking into account the difference between the NDC baseline and current policy projections, the total emissions reductions in the transport sector would need to be 4.5 MtCO₂e by 2030 in order to achieve the NDC target.

Six priority mitigation actions were identified by the Transport Sector Expert Group for Kenya’s NDC. The option with the largest mitigation potential in the transport sector is the development of an extensive mass transit system for greater Nairobi in the form of bus rapid transit (BRT) corridors complemented by light rail transit (LRT) in high thoroughfare corridors. A mass transit system could reduce emissions by approximately 3.12 MtCO₂e in 2030 (MENR, 2017b).

Feasibility studies have been conducted for three BRT lines. Construction is underway for one line, while tender process is ongoing for another line. The funding request for the third line has been presented to the Cabinet for considerations and approval (Government of Kenya, 2019). The other mitigation options are related to policies to improve heavy-duty vehicle stock efficiency and shifting freight from road to rail, assuming that rail transport is electrified (each with an abatement potential of 0.86 MtCO₂e in 2030), as well as improving passenger vehicle stock efficiency (0.64 MtCO₂e) and usage of bioethanol (0.59 MtCO₂e) (MENR, 2017b). The assumption behind the above-mentioned abatement potentials is that Kenya’s energy mix were to remain dominated by renewable energy technologies, such as geothermal or hydropower.

All mitigation actions together have an abatement potential of 6.7 MtCO₂e. Thus, there is a limited degree of flexibility in achieving the sector’s updated share of the emissions reductions target.

A sound agriculture sector is a priority of the Government of Kenya because of the sector’s importance to food security, rural livelihoods and poverty alleviation. Agriculture is a key economic sector and is considered the backbone of Kenya’s economy for its direct contribution to the GDP and linkages with other sectors such as manufacturing and trade (MENR, 2017b). The main policy goals of the sector, comprised under the Agriculture Sector Development Strategy 2010-2020, are related to increasing agricultural productivity and production and promoting commercialisation as well as promoting sustainable land and natural resource management (FAPDA, 2013).

Emissions in the agriculture sector are sub-divided into six major emission sources: livestock enteric fermentation, agricultural soils, savanna burning, livestock manure management, rice cultivation and burning crop residues (in descending order of amount of GHG emissions).

According to the NDC baseline, absolute emissions from the agriculture sector are projected to grow from 34 MtCO₂e in 2015 to 41.6 MtCO₂e in 2030 while the contribution of agricultural emissions to total national emissions is expected to decrease from 59% in 2015 to 32% in 2030 (excl. LULUCF) (Republic of Kenya, 2015). This can at least partly be explained by the fact that energy-related emissions grow in the NDC baseline scenario at a considerably faster rate than agricultural emissions and by the lower expected economic growth rates in agriculture compared to other sectors of the economy (MENR, 2017b).

Under the current policy projection, absolute emissions in agriculture sector in 2015 are 35 MtCO₂e and projected to grow to 41.5 MtCO₂e in 2030, corresponding to 38% of total national emissions by 2030 (MENR, 2017a).

The agriculture sector is the largest contributor to Kenya’s GHG emissions in 2015, both under the NDC baseline scenario and the current policy projection scenario. While the current policy projection scenario indicates that this will not change in 2030, the NDC baseline projects that emissions from the electricity generation sector will increase considerably by 2030 and that agriculture will be the second largest contributor.

The sector’s NDC target is to reduce 3 MtCO₂e by 2030, corresponding to 6% of the overall abatement task (Republic of Kenya, 2015). Taking into account the difference between the NDC baseline and current policy projections, the total emissions reductions in the agriculture sector would need to be 2.9 MtCO₂e by 2030 in order to achieve the NDC target.

The priority mitigation actions for the agriculture sector are agroforestry (with an abatement potential of 4.47 MtCO₂e by 2030), conservation tillage (1.18 MtCO₂e) and limiting use of fire for cropland management (1.07 MtCO₂e) (MENR, 2017b). Agroforestry has by far the highest abatement potential and can be considered the interface between agriculture and forestry and encompasses mixed land-use practices. It is distinct from forestry mitigation actions as it targets lands that are currently in use for agriculture. This mitigation action encourages compliance with the Agricultural Farm Forestry Rules that require every land holder to maintain a compulsory farm tree cover of at least 10% on any agricultural land holdings (MENR, 2017b).

All mitigation actions together have an abatement potential of 6.73 MtCO₂e by 2030. The difference between the sector specific emissions reductions target for the NDC and the total abatement potential of all mitigation actions in 2030 indicates that there is a certain degree of flexibility in the implementation the mitigation actions.

Kenya is classified as a low forest cover country. Kenyan data submitted to the FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment indicated that forested land (including natural forests, public and private plantations) declined from 4,724,000 hectares (ha) in 1990 to 3,437,000 ha in 2000; and increased again to 4,037,000 ha in 2010 (FAO, 2015). While there is considerable uncertainty regarding the exact forest extent in Kenya and the rates of deforestation, it is clear that over the last 20 to 30 years, considerable deforestation has occurred. The major reasons for deforestation are conversion of forest land to agriculture, unsustainable utilisation of forest products (including charcoal), forest fires and shifting cultivation (Gichu & Chapman, 2014).

The Government of Kenya enshrined sustainable and productive management of land and land resources in the country’s Constitution, which, among other things, stipulates that the Government aims to achieve and maintain a tree cover of at least 10% of total land area. The Constitution further states that land in Kenya shall be held, used and managed in a manner that is equitable, efficient, productive and sustainable, and entrenches sound conservation and protection of ecologically sensitive areas (National Council, 2010).

The Forest Conservation and Management Act, 2016 provides for the development and sustainable management of all forest resources. The Act classifies forests in Kenya as public, community or private forests. Public forests are vested in the Kenya Forest Service (KFS), community forests are vested in the community, and each County Government is responsible for the protection and management of forests and woodlands under its jurisdiction (Republic of Kenya, 2016).

The Act also indicates that indigenous forests and woodlands are to be managed on a sustainable basis for, inter alia, carbon sequestration.

According to the NDC baseline, the LULUCF sector is the second largest contributor to Kenya’s GHG emissions after agriculture, largely as a result of deforestation. Absolute emissions from the LULUCF sector are projected to decrease from 26 MtCO₂e in 2015 to 22 MtCO₂e in 2030 and the contribution of this sector to total national emissions is expected drop from 31% in 2015 to 14% in 2030 (Republic of Kenya, 2015).

While absolute emissions under the current policy projection do not change compared to the NDC baseline, the estimated contribution to national emissions changes to 17% by 2030 due to adjusted baselines in other sectors, especially in the electricity supply sector (MENR, 2017a).

The sector’s NDC target is to reduce emissions by 20.1 MtCO₂e by 2030, corresponding to 47% of the overall abatement task (Republic of Kenya, 2015).

The priority mitigation actions for the LULUCF sector are restoration of forests on degraded lands (with a total abatement potential of 35.05 MtCO₂e by 2030), restoration of degraded forests (6.56 MtCO₂e) and reducing deforestation and forest degradation (1.72 MtCO₂e) (MENR, 2017b). All mitigation options together have an abatement potential of 43.32 MtCO₂e in order to achieve the NDC target.

If the mitigation actions were to be implemented successfully, which would mean that Kenya’s forest increases from 6% to 10% by 2030, involving the regeneration of forests on 2.4 million hectares of land, the sector would meet and even overachieve its emissions reductions target for the NDC (MENR, 2017b).

The need for adequate waste treatment is accentuated by growing industrialization of the Kenyan economy. Waste management is regulated in Kenya at the national level by the Environmental Management and Co-ordination (Waste Management) Regulations 2006 (Republic of Kenya, 2006). The regulations stipulate measures and standards that Counties are to comply with in managing waste. In addition to that, the National Solid Waste Management Strategy 2015 has a short-term goal of 30% waste recovery and 70% controlled dumping by 2020 and in March 2017, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry introduced a ban on the manufacture, use and importation of plastic bags use for commercial and household packaging. Waste produces GHG emissions mainly through the processes of disposal, treatment, recycling and incineration (MENR, 2017b).

According to Kenya’s NDC baseline, absolute emissions from the waste sector are projected to grow from 2.6 MtCO₂e in 2015 to 5.2 MtCO₂e in 2030 while their contribution to total national emissions is expected to remain at 4% (excl. LULUCF) (Republic of Kenya, 2015).

Under the current policy projection, absolute emissions in the waste sector in 2015 are 2.6 MtCO₂e and projected to grow to 5.1 MtCO₂e in 2030, corresponding to 5% of total national emissions by 2030 (MENR, 2017a).

The sector’s NDC target is to reduce its emissions by 0.4 MtCO₂e by 2030, corresponding to 1% of the overall abatement task (Republic of Kenya, 2015). Taking into account the difference between the NDC baseline and current policy projections, the total emissions reductions in the waste sector would need to be 0.3 MtCO₂e by 2030 in order to achieve the NDC target.

According to the NDC Sector Analysis, there is only one mitigation action for the waste sector which is related to landfill gas capture and its utilisation for energy. This option has the largest potential for short-term GHG emissions reductions with a total abatement potential of 0.84 MtCO₂e by 2030. If this mitigation action is successfully implemented, the waste sector meets its sector emissions reduction target without depending on other sectors overachieving their respective emissions reductions targets.