Kenya

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Summary table

Paris Agreement targets

Kenya ratified the Paris Agreement on 28 December 2016 (MENR, 2017b). Kenya seeks to abate its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% by 2030 relative to the business as usual (BAU) scenario of 153 MtCO₂e (143 MtCO₂e using IPCC SAR values) including LULUCF and 131 MtCO₂e, if LULUCF is excluded. The target is conditional on international support (MENR, 2015).

According to our assessment of current policies, Kenya’s is on track to meet, and even overachieve its Paris Agreement pledge according to the upper and the lower range of the current policy pathways, respectively.

If one were to recalculate Kenya’s NDC based on the lower range of current policy projections, it would increase its ambition from 110 MtCO₂e/yr excl. LULUCF to 89 MtCO₂e/yr excl. LULUCF. If we were to translate this emissions level to the language of Kenya’s NDC, this would be a reduction of 44% below BAU, including LULUCF. In preparation for its NDC, bottom up sectoral analysis determined that Kenya has the potential to reduce emissions by 60% below BAU. There is significant scope for Kenya to adopt an unconditional target as well as scale up its conditional target with international support.

The abatement contribution of various sectors to the 30% reduction varies. The LULUCF sector contributes the largest share (47%) to the overall emissions reductions target, with all the remaining sectors together contributing 53%. The electricity supply subsector contributes the second largest share (22%), followed by the energy demand (14%) and the transport subsector (8%). Agriculture (6%), industrial processes (2%) and waste (1%) contribute the rest (MENR, 2017b).

After excluding LULUCF and considering its disproportionately high share of the total emissions reductions target, Kenya’s maximum GHG emissions limit (excl. LULUCF) in 2030 is 110 MtCO₂e. See the Assumptions for further details.

Considering the fact that the bottom up sectoral analysis, prepared as part of developing its NDC identified the potential to reduce projected emissions by 2030 by 60% (MENR, 2017b), i.e. twice as high as the current conditional target, there is potential for Kenya to strengthen its conditional target as well as adopt an unconditional one.

Kenya is planning to enhance and update its NDC by 2020 (WRI, 2019).