Historical emissions for the years 1994, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 are taken from the data reported to the UNFCCC GHG inventory database (UNFCCC, 2015). We interpolated missing time series values. PRIMAP data is used to calculate growth rates in order to expand the historical time series to 2016, excluding LULUCF (Gütschow, Jeffery, & Gieseke, 2019).
Pledges and targets
Data for the NDC business-as-usual scenario was taken from the country’s Second National Communication for the years 2015 and 2030 (Republic of Kenya, 2015). We interpolated missing time series values. As there is no gas-by-gas split available for the years 2015 and 2030, we have calculated a country-specific historical ratio between SAR and AR4 by recalculating the historical years for which a gas-by-gas spilt is available. We consider the years 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 to calculate the average ratio (hereafter referred to as average conversion factor). Because of disproportionate deviation, the year 1994 was not considered for the average conversion factor. The LULUCF sector was not considered either for calculating the average conversion factor as we assume CO2 to be the main GHG in this sector.
Data for the NDC target was taken from the country’s Second National Communication and its NDC (MENR, 2015; Republic of Kenya, 2015). In order to exclude LULUCF from the NDC target, we have calculated the sector shares in the overall emissions reductions target of 30% by 2030. The LULUCF sector contributes the largest share (47%) to the overall emissions reductions target, with all the remaining sectors together contributing 53%. The projected NDC BAU by 2030, excluding LULUCF, was first multiplied by 30% and then by 53% in order to get the adjusted NDC target, without considering mitigation actions in the LULUCF sector.
Current policy projections
Upper range (CPP Max.)
Data for the upper range of the current policy projection was taken from the historical emissions time series for 2016and from the NDC Baseline Update for the year 2030 (MENR, 2017a; Republic of Kenya, 2015).
In January 2017, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, with support from the Strengthening Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change in Kenya (StARCK+) programme, released an assessment report containing an updated emissions baseline to inform how sectors could contribute to meeting Kenya’s NDC. The objective of the assessment was to examine expected contributions to emissions reductions from each sector, explore sectoral mitigation actions to meet the NDC target, and examine new information that could impact the achievement of the NDC targets. The update was based on new historical activity data for each emission source as well as new information on drivers of future emissions (2016 – 2030), such as GDP growth forecasts by sector, new projections on electricity generation projects and new forecasts for urbanisation (MENR, 2017a).
Lower range (CPP Min.)
Data for the lower range of the current policy projection was taken from the historical emissions time series for 2016. Data for the year 2030 was taken from the NDC Baseline Update for all sectors except the electricity generation subsector, for which data was taken from the 2017-2037 Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) (Republic of Kenya, 2018).
Global Warming Potentials
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Kenya uses GWP values from the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR), therefore we converted all figures and time series from SAR to AR4 GWP values.