Morocco

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Economy-wide

Our current policy projections indicate that Morocco’s GHG emissions in 2030 will be 153 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF (200% above 2005 levels and 371% above 1990 levels). While current policy projections for 2020 are in line with the NDC, emissions between 2020 and 2030 grow at a faster pace than allowed under the NDC commitment.

The Moroccan Climate Change Policy (MCCP) coordinates and aligns various sectoral and cross-sectoral national policies against climate change, mainly in the energy, waste, transportation, agriculture and forestry sectors. The MCCP is not additionally considered in the Climate Action Tracker’s current policy projection as the policy in itself does not enforce quantifiable measures or targets.

Energy Supply

In 2017, Morocco still relied heavily on coal (IEA 2018) and is expanding its coal-fired power generation, despite minimal coal reserves in the region and, consequently, high dependency on imports (Le Matin 2016). Power generation needs to be decarbonised by 2050 in order to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Coal, in particular, needs to be phased out for power generation worldwide by 2050 in pathways that limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C (IPCC 2018).

Natural gas is projected to reach 23% of total electricity installed capacity by 2030 in Morocco (Hamane 2016). While gas phase out is not as restrictive as coal, global shares would need to reach around 8% by 2050 and be couple with carbon capture technologies to be compatible with the Paris Agreement (IPCC 2018). Fast renewable uptake is paramount for Morocco’s alignment with long-term temperature goals.

At the core of Morocco’s current emissions reduction efforts stands the National Energy Strategy, which aims to extend the share of renewable electricity capacity to 42% by 2020 and to 52% by 2030 (Government of Morocco 2016c). The National Energy Strategy mainly focuses on the capacity extension of wind, solar and hydro-electric electricity generation. The extension of wind, solar and hydro capacity by 2020 is estimated to reduce emissions by 11 MtCO2 annually (Government of Morocco 2016d). In 2015, Morocco’s share of renewable electricity capacity had reached 34% (World Future Council 2016; Hamane 2016). Morocco further increased the total installed renewable electricity generation capacity to 2,566 MW in 2017 (IRENA 2018), which represents an increase of additional 123 MW compared to 2016.

Under the Morocco Solar Plan (Noor), Morocco plans to extend installed solar power capacity (PV and CSP) to 2,000 MW by 2020, starting from 180 MW of installed capacity at the end of 2015. Contrary to the CAT assessment in 2016, which displayed an uncertainty range for the implementation of the Morocco Solar Plan, our current policy projection assumes the full implementation of Morocco Solar Plan due to recent progress to meet the 2020 capacity targets, as explained below.

After recent administrative restructuring, the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (MASEN) will take over the lead for the development of all renewable energy technologies in Morocco (Renewables Now 2016) from the Moroccan Electricity and Water Utility Company (ONEE). This includes the ongoing development of ONEE’s solar power programme for 500 MW by 2020, including the three large projects Noor-Tafilalet (120 MW), Noor-Atlas (200 MW) and Noor Argana (100 MW). With the projects already led by MASEN, the final phase of the Noor Ouarzazate complex (70 MW out of 580 MW) and the Noor Laayoune (80 MW) and Noor Boujdour (20 MW) projects were commissioned in 2018 (MASEN 2018). Finally, MASEN announced the they will award contracts for the 800 MW Noor Midelt project by the end of 2018 (Renewables Now 2018).

Owing to these recent developments, it is assumed that the Morocco Solar Plan’s capacity extension targets until 2020 will be fully implemented. Some of the latest project developments already address capacity extension plans for the post-2020 period to achieve the 2030 capacity extension target. In our CAT assessment we have not quantified these impacts as the developments and successful implementation for the post-2020 period are relatively more uncertain.

The Morocco Integrated Wind Energy Program aims to increase the capacity of national wind farms from 797 MW in 2015 to 2,000 MW by 2020 (Government of Morocco, 2016a). This programme is also assumed to be part of the current policy projections since its implementation is on track.

The Moroccan Electricity and Water Utility Company awarded a tender bid of 850 MW in 2015 that includes five projects: 150 MW in Tangiers, 300 MW in Tiskrad, 200 MW in Jbel Lahdid, 100 MW near Boujdour, and 100 MW at Midelt, all beginning operation between 2017 and 2020 (Oxford Business Group 2016). At the end of 2017, Morocco had 1,000 MW wind energy installed capacity (IRENA 2018) which during the year of 2018 has been expanded with the inauguration of the 120 MW Khalladi windfarm (Climate Home News 2018).

As an extension of the Morocco Hydro-Electric Plan, Morocco plans to install an additional hydro-electric capacity of 775 MW by 2020, on top of the already-installed capacity of about 1,300 MW in 2010. As of 2015, Morocco had a total of 1,770 MW in hydro-electric capacity (IRENA 2016). Two projects of 15 MW of small hydropower power in Morocco’s Middle Atlas region received approval in 2018 (HydroWorld 2018) Three plants with a total potential capacity of around 300 MW are further assumed to be developed until 2020, with El Menzel and Station de Transfert d’Energie par Pompage (STEP) Abdelmoumen already under construction. ONEE recently identified numerous sites suitable for locating small or micro hydropower plants (~100 kW to 1,500 kW), with a total potential capacity of around 300 MW (Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy 2016).Besides the extension of renewable electricity capacity, our current policy projection includes Morocco’s energy efficiency programmes in the building sector, public lighting and the industry sector. We note, however, that the industrial energy efficiency programme excludes large energy consuming industries (Government of Morocco 2016d).

Transport

Tramways in Rabat and Casablanca are currently being extended by 10km by 2020 and 45km by 2025, respectively. Similar extensions are planned for the cities of Marrakech, Fès, Tanger and Agadir, although actual implementation has not been started.