Norway

Overall rating: Almost Sufficient

Policies and action against modelled domestic pathways: Almost Sufficient; < 2°C World

NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: 1.5°C global least cost; < 1.5°C World

NDC target against fair share: Insufficient; < 3°C World

Climate finance: Insufficient

Net zero target: Comprehensiveness not rated as
No target

Land use & forestry: historically considered a
Sink

Target Overview

Following the current Norwegian Labour government pledge to strengthen Norway’s 2030 emissions reduction target in early 2022, Norway formally submitted a renewed 2030 emissions reduction target in the run up to COP27, changing from 50% to at least 55% below 1990 levels in its updated NDC. This puts it in line with the EU’s target.

Norway intends to achieve this target in collaboration with the European Union. Norway will regulate emissions from all economic sectors through three pieces of legislation: the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) and the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation. Under the EU’s Effort Sharing Regulation, which covers sectors not included in the EU ETS, Norway is only required to reduce emissions by 40% by 2030, though Norway increased this to 45%. This target is not compatible with its overall 55% target seeing as most of Norway’s emissions reductions must come from sectors not covered by the EU ETS.

Under the LULUCF Regulation, Norway commits to no net emissions from the LULUCF sector between 2021 and 2030 (Government of Norway, 2020c). Norway is permitted to use up to 1.6 MtCO₂e in net removals from the land sector towards meeting its NDC.

NORWAY - Main climate targets

2030 NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC	At least 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	24.7 MtCO₂e [52% below 1990] [55% below 2010]
Status	Submitted on 3 November 2022

Net zero & other long-term targets
Formulation of target	Achieve emission reductions of 90–95% from 1990 by 2050
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF	21.9–24 MtCO₂e [54–58% below 1990] [57–61% below 2010]
Status	Submitted on 25 November 2020

NDC Updates

In November 2022, Norway submitted a stronger target compared to its previous 2020 NDC, Norway updated its NDC with a 2030 emissions target of at least 55% below 1990 levels. Norway’s updated target represents progress beyond its previous submission.

NORWAY — History of NDC updates	2016 NDC	Updated NDC 2020	Updated NDC 2022
1.5°C compatible
Stronger target	N/A
Fixed/absolute target

	2016 NDC	Updated NDC 2020	Updated NDC 2022
Formulation of target in NDC	Unconditional target: At least 40% reduction in 2030 compared to 1990. To be developed into an emissions budget for the period 2021 to 2030.	Unconditional target: At least 50% and towards 55% reduction of GHG by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.	Unconditional target: At least 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	Unconditional target: 32.3 MtCO₂e	Unconditional target: 24.6–27.2 MtCO₂e	Unconditional target: 24.7 MtCO₂e
Emissions compared to 1990 and 2010 excl. LULUCF	Unconditional target: 37% below 1990 emissions by 2030 41% below 2010 emissions by 2030	Unconditional target: 47–52% below 1990 levels 50–55% below 2010 levels	Unconditional target: At least 52% below 1990 emissions by 2030 At least 55% below 2010 emissions by 2030
CAT rating	*Overall rating:** Insufficient	*Overall rating:** Almost sufficient	NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: 1.5°C Global least cost NDC target against fair share: Insufficient
Sector coverage	Economy-wide	Unchanged	Unchanged
Separate target for LULUCF	No, but under EU Regulation, Norway has committed to reaching net zero emissions from LULUCF in 2030	Unchanged	Unchanged
Gas coverage	All greenhouse gases	Unchanged	Unchanged
Target type	Absolute emissions reduction from a base year	Absolute emissions reduction from a base year (single year target)	Unchanged

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

2020.02.07 - Norway's updated NDC: Progress, but not Paris compatible

CAT Rating

We rate NDC targets against what a country should be doing within its own borders based on modelled domestic pathways derived from global least cost pathways as well as what a fair contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C would be. For the latter, we consider both its domestic emission reductions and any emissions reductions it supports abroad through the use of market mechanisms or other ways of support. Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

In its 2020 NDC, Norway had indicated that it may use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement for part of its NDC target if the EU did not also update its target to the same level (Government of Norway, 2020c). In December 2020, the EU submitted its updated NDC to at least a 55% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels. As the EU NDC matches Norway’s latest unconditional target of at least 55%, we interpret this target as being a domestic one for the time being, (i.e. with no emissions reductions achieved through international credits), although this may change in the future. In its 2022 NDC, Norway states it could use Article 6 mechanisms to meet emissions reductions going “beyond what is achieved through the climate cooperation with the European Union”.

The CAT rates Norway's NDC target as aligned with least cost modelled domestic pathways which limit warming to 1.5°C and "Insufficient" when rated against its fair share contribution. As Norway does not have an emissions reduction target that includes non-domestic emissions reductions, as is the case with Switzerland, for example, we rate its NDC target against the two rating frameworks.

NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: 1.5°C global least cost

Norway’s updated NDC broadly aligns with the least cost modelled pathways which limit warming to 1.5°C with no low overshoot. Norway has committed to strengthening its 2030 target to at least a 55% reduction below 1990 levels, which was formally communicated to the UNFCCC in 2022. This represents a reduction of emissions of 50% below 2020 levels, excluding LULUCF. The “1.5°C global least cost” rating indicates that Norway’s NDC target in 2030 is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C on a globally cost-effective basis.

NDC target against fair share: Insufficient

We rate Norway’s updated NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair share emissions allocation. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Norway’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Norway’s NDC target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. However, it will not be feasible for Norway to achieve all these emissions reductions domestically. Therefore, Norway will need to develop clear and ambitious plans to support climate action in other countries, particularly through capacity building, technology transfer and climate finance. If all countries were to follow Norway’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Norway’s international climate finance contributions are rated “Insufficient” (see below) and is not enough to improve its fair share rating.

Norway’s international public finance contributions are rated “Insufficient”. The country is the only one to meet our benchmark for current contributions based on the USD 100 billion commitment and is committed to doubling its climate finance from NOK 7bn (USD 770m) in 2020 to NOK 14bn (USD 1.54bn) by 2026 at the latest (Government of Norway, 2021b). Despite this pledged increase, current contributions are yet to reach levels sufficient to be considered aligned with the least cost modelled domestic pathways which limit warming to 1.5°C with no low overshoot

Norway’s international contributions are the highest among CAT countries considering its mitigation obligation. Norway also ranks first in finance provided per capita and per GDP. Some of the country’s main initiatives are the Norwegian International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI) and contributions to multilateral institutions and funds, such as the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). A high share of Norway’s contributions has climate as a main objective and is based on grants.

Overall, yearly contributions slightly decreased from before Paris until 2019, but 2020 saw a sizeable increase year-on-year. The Norwegian International Climate and Forest Initiative, the country’s largest program, has been extended to 2030. Norway also announced an increase in contributions to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and other multi-lateral channels (Government of Norway, 2019a).

Norway has not committed to stop funding fossil fuels overseas and continues to allow new domestic oil and gas exploration. Norway’s parliament voted in 2019 to divest part of its sovereign-wealth fund investments on fossil fuels; however, investment in major oil companies remains. In 2021, it was announced that Norway will offer financial institution support in measuring and assessing climate risks in their investment portfolios (Schwartzkopff, 2021).

Further information on the CAT climate finance ratings can be found here.

Net zero and other long-term targets

2020 pledge

Copenhagen Pledge

Under the Copenhagen Accord, Norway has pledged to reduce emissions by 30–40% below 1990 levels by 2020 with the 40% reduction target conditional on global action.

Norway did not achieve its 2020 target, even with the effect that the pandemic had on emissions in 2020. Norway’s target level was 36-31 MtCO₂e (excluding the land sector contribution). Its emissions in 2020 were 49.3 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF), which are only 4% below 1990 levels (Government of Norway, 2022a).