Greenhouse gas emission inventories for 1990-2019 are based on the National Inventory Report 2021 submitted to the UNFCCC (Government of Norway, 2021).
NDC and other targets
The Copenhagen pledge, as well as NDC and long-term target were calculated from the most recent national inventory submissions.
Current policy projections
We applied a novel method to estimate the COVID-19 related dip in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and the deployment through to 2030. The uncertainty surrounding the severity and length of the pandemic creates a new level of uncertainty for current and future greenhouse gas emissions.
The pre-COVID current policy projections are based on Norway's submission to the European Environment Agency harmonised to the last historic year (European Environment Agency, 2019). We calculated the emission intensity (GHG emissions/GDP) from this pre-pandemic scenario and apply to it the most recent GDP projections that take into account the effect of the pandemic.
We used GDP growth data from Statistics Norway for 2020 (Statistics Norway, 2021). We used a range of GDP projections from Statistics Norway, the IMF and the OECD for the lower and upper bounds for 2021-2026 (IMF, 2021; OECD, 2021; Statistics Norway, 2021). We derived GDP estimates for the years 2027 to 2030 from the growth rates in the original pre-pandemic current policy scenario.