Norway

Historical emissions data covering the period from 1990–2023 is taken from Norway’s latest National Inventory Report submitted to the UNFCCC (Government of Norway, 2025a).

2030 NDC

In its updated 2030 NDC, Norway has committed to reducing emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030 (Government of Norway, 2022b). Norway calculates its target using a hybrid approach, meaning that its targeted emissions level in 2030 includes some emissions from the LULUCF sector.

The CAT excludes LULUCF emissions from our analysis. In agreement with the EU as part of the LULUCF Regulation, Norway is permitted to count -1.6 MtCO₂e in removals from its LULUCF sink towards achievement of its NDC target for 2030. To remove LULUCF emissions from our calculations, we add these allowed removals back into the 55% emissions reduction for 2030. This results in a targeted emissions level of 24.5 MtCO₂e in 2030.

2035 NDC

In its latest NDC, Norway has committed to reducing emissions by 70–75% below 1990 levels by 2035 (Government of Norway, 2025c). As with its 2030 target, Norway calculates its 2035 target using a hybrid approach, meaning that its targeted emissions level in 2035 includes some emissions from the LULUCF sector.

The CAT excludes LULUCF emissions from our analysis. To remove these LULUCF emissions from our calculations, we estimate the level of removals Norway plans to use in 2035 based on the level of LULUCF it is permitted to count towards the achievement of its 2030 NDC. In agreement with the EU as part of the LULUCF Regulation, Norway is permitted to count -1.6 MtCO₂e in removals from its LULUCF sink towards achievement of its NDC target for 2030. This represents 11.6% of Norway’s total LULUCF emissions projected in 2030.

While Norway’s agreement with the EU will likely be updated in the future to set a clear level of removals for the 2035 target, this has not yet happened, so we assume that LULUCF removals in 2035 will use the same share as in 2030. 11.6% of Norway’s total projected LULUCF emissions in 2035 is -1.3 MtCO₂e. Applying this level of removals to Norway’s latest NDC results in a targeted emissions level of between 14 and 16.6 MtCO₂e in 2035.

Our current policy projections are based on the "With measures" emissions forecast outlined in Norway’s First Biennial Transparency Report (Government of Norway, 2025b). To reflect differences in emissions trends across the economy, we take the projected emissions for each sector, harmonized to 2023 as the latest historical year, and sum these to quantify Norway’s total future emissions (excl. LULUCF) in key years such as 2030, 2035, and 2050.

The CAT always provides policy projections excluding LULUCF, so projected emissions from this sector are not included in our analysis.

Our planned policy projections are based on the "With additional measures" emissions forecast outlined in Norway’s First Biennial Transparency Report (Government of Norway, 2025b). We use the same sector-by-sector approach outlined for our current policy projections, excluding emissions from LULUCF.

Norway has not adopted a net zero target, but rather has committed to reducing emissions by 90–95% below 1990 levels by 2050 in its long-term strategy submitted to the UNFCCC (Government of Norway, 2020b). Unlike the NDC targets for 2030 and 2035, it is not clear whether Norway uses a gross-net accounting approach because it is not specified in the LTS whether the 1990 reference year is including or excluding LULUCF. We assume that the reference year includes LULUCF.

The CAT excludes LULUCF emissions from our target ratings. To remove these, we first quantify a 90–95% emissions reduction below 1990 levels (incl. LULUCF), then take the projected LULUCF emissions in 2050 and add them back in to derive a targeted emissions level of between 13.7–15.7 MtCO₂e in 2050. We take projected LULUCF emissions in 2050 from the Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, as this is the estimate cited in Norway’s 8th National Communication submitted to the UNFCCC (Government of Norway, 2023).

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for all its figures and time series unless stated otherwise. Assessments completed prior to June 2025 used GWP values from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), while those completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).