Russian Federation

Russia submitted its 2035 NDC to the UNFCCC on September 29, 2025. What follows below is our analysis of an executive order signed into law by President Vladimir Putin. A full analysis of Russia's 2035 NDC submission will follow soon.

Russia signed into law its 2035 emissions reduction target on 6 August 2025, setting a 2035 target of “the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 65–67 percent of 1990 levels by 2035.” Little information was provided, other than that Russia intends to include its LULUCF sector as part of the target.

Our initial assessment of Russia’s 2035 headline target falls far short of 1.5°C compatibility. Excluding LULUCF, Russia’s 2035 target equates to 27–33% below 1990 levels, or 2,113–2,308 MtCO2e. To be 1.5°C compatible compared to modelled domestic pathways, Russia would need to reduce its emissions excluding LULUCF by 79% below 1990 levels, or to 657 MtCO2e.

The following are some key issues which we hope the government would address with its formal NDC submission:

• Submit fixed, absolute emissions reduction targets: Russia should communicate a fixed, absolute emissions reduction target for 2035 excluding LULUCF, and align it with our cost-effective 1.5ºC modelled domestic pathways. Russia heavily relies on its land sink, allowing for low ambition in other areas of the economy. A target which excludes LULUCF can demonstrate genuine ambition to mitigate global warming.
• Follow UNFCCC guidelines when reporting LULUCF emissions: Russia’s current emissions reduction targets are easily met through its LULUCF sector. Russia’s accounting methodology does not follow UNFCCC guidelines, leading to inflated figures regarding its LULUCF sector's carbon sink. Full transparency around Russia’s LULUCF data, and a shift to UNFCCC guidelines as is standard practice globally, will add legitimacy to Russia’s target.
• Update 2030 NDC target: aside from its 2035 target, Russia’s current 2030 emissions reduction target is rated “Critically insufficient” by the CAT. Aligning the 2030 target with 1.5ºC compatible modelled domestic pathways can drive near term ambition. A 1.5°C compatible target would see Russia cut its emissions by 68% below 1990 by 2030, or an additional 1010 MtCO₂e beyond its current target.
• Increase provision of climate finance. Russia currently makes no substantial contribution to climate finance in developing countries. Its NDC presents Russia with an opportunity to demonstrate international leadership by supporting emissions reductions in low-income countries.