South Africa

In its updated 2021 NDC, South Africa commits to absolute emissions target levels in the range of 350–420 MtCO₂e, including LULUCF, for 2030 (Government of South Africa, 2021b). Assuming LULUCF remains at the average level over 2011–2020 (-17 MtCO₂e), this NDC target range translates to emission levels in 2030 of between 367–437 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF, equivalent to 19-32% below 2010 levels excluding LULUCF.

The CAT rates South Africa's target as "Almost sufficient" when rated against modelled domestic pathways, and "Insufficient" when rated against the fair share contribution. South Africa does not specify a conditional target or an international element in its NDC, so we rate the unconditional target against the two rating frameworks.

The CAT rates South Africa’s reduction target based on the upper range of its target. If South Africa were to meet the lower end of the range it would be 1.5°C compatible when compared to modelled emissions pathways; however, it would still fall short of its fair-share contribution.

The NDC document does not specifically mention whether the emissions range is an unconditional target, but the CAT interprets it as such. South Africa’s NDC assumes “that implementation and ambition will be enabled by finance and technology and capacity building support” (Government of South Africa, 2021b), similar to the previous 2016 NDC. It also highlights that equality, economic and social development and poverty eradication are South Africa’s top priorities.

* Please refer to the Assumptions tab for more details on the CAT’s assumptions on GWP used by South Africa.
**For details on what we do for our Optimistic Target global temperature estimate for South Africa, please see the Assumptions tab.

We rate the 2030 reduction target as “Almost sufficient” when compared to modelled emissions pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that South Africa’s NDC target in 2030 is not yet consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit but could be with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow South Africa’s approach, warming could be held at—but not well below—2°C.

The CAT rates South Africa’s reduction target based on the upper range of its target, which falls in the “Almost sufficient” range, even if close to the limit to “1.5°C compatible”. If South Africa were to meet the lower end of the range it would be 1.5°C compatible when compared to modelled emissions pathways; however, it would still fall short of its fair-share contribution.

South Africa currently relies on foreign investments and international finance support to implement a large percentage of its climate change programmes, and the government also emphasises in its updated NDC that the implementation of its NDC will be enabled by financial support as specified in the Paris Agreement.

We rate South Africa’s 2030 NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that South Africa’s target needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow South Africa’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

CAT interprets the full NDC target as unconditional. As South Africa only needs to reach its upper end of the target range to fulfil the NDC, we rate that emissions level. If South Africa committed to meeting the lower end of its target range, the rating would change to “Almost sufficient” when compared to the fair share contribution.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.

South Africa submitted a submitted a stronger target on 27 September 2021.

The updated NDC strengthened the country’s target range for 2030: the upper end is now 31% lower and the lower end 12% lower than in the previous, 2016, NDC.

The government followed the recommendations of the South African Presidential Climate Commission from June 2021. The multi-stakeholder group established by President Ramaphosa provided advice on the country’s NDC update, proposing stronger 2030 targets, going beyond a first draft NDC published for public consultation in March 2021.

While the updated 2021 NDC increased South Africa’s climate ambition towards 2030 and increased clarity, transparency and understanding, the target range is not yet fully aligned with the 1.5˚C temperature goal.

The 2021 NDC no longer makes reference to a peak-plateau-decline (PPD) trajectory, which foresaw South Africa’s emissions plateauing for approximately a decade between 2025 and 2035 and then declining in absolute terms towards 2050 (Government of South Africa, 2016).

* Please refer to the ‘Assumptions’ section for more details on the CAT’s assumptions on GWP used by South Africa.
** Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 27.09.2021 – South Africa’s updated NDC increases its climate ambition and transparency, although not yet sufficient to be in line with Paris Agreement temperature goal
• 16.07.2021 – South Africa's Presidential climate commission recommends stronger mitigation target range for updated NDC: close to 1.5°C compatible
• 30.03.2021 – South Africa’s updated NDC draft increases its climate ambition and transparency, although very likely not yet sufficient to be in line Paris Agreement temperature goal

The 2021 updated NDC no longer refers to a peak-plateau-decline (PPD) trajectory. The previous peak-plateau-decline (PPD) trajectory, outlined in South Africa’s South Africa’s Copenhagen Accord pledge, foresaw South Africa reducing GHG emissions to 212–428 MtCO₂e by 2050 including LULUCF (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2018; Government of South Africa, 2010).

South Africa’s Long-Term Strategy submitted to the UNFCCC in October 2020 still refers to this PPD trajectory as a benchmark “in the absence of an agreed quantitative articulation of the vision” (Republic of South Africa, 2020).

The CAT no longer considers the previous 2050 target range an official long-term target for South Africa given it is no longer mentioned in the 2021 updated NDC and merely used as a benchmark in the LTS of 2020.

South Africa first stated its intention to commit to a net zero CO₂ target (“net zero carbon emissions”) by 2050 as part of a visionary statement in its LTS (Republic of South Africa, 2020). In this context, the National Planning Commission is in the process of developing a common vision for South Africa in 2050 and will subsequently update its Low-Emission Development Strategy. The Just Transition Framework, released by the Presidential Climate Commission in June 2022 and approved by the Cabinet in September 2022, refers to reaching “net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050” (Government of South Africa, 2022b; Presidential Climate Commission, 2022).

Given its preliminary nature, and the lack of more detailed information, the CAT currently does not evaluate South Africa’s net zero target. The CAT will do so once further information is communicated by the government.