Switzerland

Switzerland has made notable strides in its climate policies since the last update, first with the introduction of a legally binding 2050 net zero target and more recently with the passage of the Federal Act on a Secure Electricity Supply with Renewable Energies, which gives significant support to renewable energy development and end-use electrification.

But despite this progress, the Swiss government has shown a concerning unwillingness to address the implications of the recent European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruling, which underscored Switzerland’s inadequate ambition of climate policies and failure to meet necessary emission targets. This non compliance is problematic because it undermines international efforts to combat climate change and sets a concerning precedent for other countries that might be tempted to undermine similar rulings.

Switzerland has yet to communicate how much of its NDC target it plans to achieve through domestic reductions versus offsets abroad. Switzerland’s engagement in bilateral agreements to “offset” part of its domestic emissions and the lack of transparency around the level of domestic emissions reduction effort in its NDC continue to risk setting a bad precedent for other countries. These actions raise concerns about the country's willingness and ability to take ambitious domestic climate action that will be needed to meet Switzerland’s legally binding net zero target. The Climate Action Tracker continues to rate Switzerland overall as “Insufficient”.

The Federal Act on a Secure Electricity Supply with Renewable Energies adopted in June 2024 will substantially reduce Switzerland’s emissions towards 2030, contributing to our assessment of Switzerland’s policy projection and action now rated as "Almost Sufficient". The legislation includes plans to increase generation of non-hydro renewable energy more than seven-fold between 2023 and 2035. This increase is crucial for the clean electrification of other sectors. As a result, emissions are projected to decrease substantially, getting Switzerland on track to meet CAT’s estimated domestic NDC target for Switzerland while almost reaching its full NDC target including international carbon credits. This implies less need for Switzerland to offset emissions abroad.

In its NDC, Switzerland states that it will reduce emissions at least 50% below 1990 levels by 2030, but Switzerland has not set a domestic component for this target, also not in the 2030 NDC update submitted in November 2024. The CAT estimates that 60% to 66% of these reductions are expected to be met domestically but if Switzerland wants to improve its overall rating to "Almost sufficient”, it needs to establish a robust domestic target for 2030 which needs to lie at around 75% of the total NDC target. However, this only brings Switzerland’s contribution to one that is consistent with pathways for below 2°C. In order to be 1.5° compatible, the NDC target needs to be lowered, and achieved entirely domestically.

For the remaining, non-disclosed, share of its NDC target, Switzerland plans to rely on international carbon credits. Using international credits in place of cutting domestic emissions risks undermining the ambition of the Swiss target. Additionally the lack of transparency on the amount of emissions it aims to compensate hinders the assessment of the overall ambition of its emission reduction strategy. Switzerland should therefore first aim to deliver deep reductions domestically and support developing countries through providing and mobilising climate finance, instead of purchasing carbon credits which it counts against its targets. Switzerland is one of the most active countries in pursuing bilateral agreements to purchase so-called Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) under the Paris Agreement, and has been criticised for its low level of ambition.

In summary, Switzerland’s recent climate policy developments reveal significant advancements but also critical gaps that it must address to align with the latest science and the urgent need for accelerating ambition.

Key positive developments:

• Legally binding 2050 net zero target: Switzerland's Climate Protection Act established a legally binding target to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, creating a clear framework for long-term climate action and necessary policy adjustments. Based on improvements in scope, architecture, and transparency, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) now rates Switzerland’s net zero target as "acceptable" instead of "average".
• New Renewable Energy Act: The Federal Act on a Secure Electricity Supply with Renewable Energies will significantly increase the share of renewables in Switzerland's energy mix and is expected to lead to a marked reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in an “Almost sufficient” rating for the country’s climate policies.
• Legal framework following ECHR ruling: The European Court of Human Rights ruling in April 2024 highlighted the necessity for effective climate policies, prompting the Swiss government to take more action. Although the government dismissed the ECHR's findings, the ruling raised awareness and intensified the debate around Switzerland's climate strategy.

Areas for improvement:

• Need for a robust domestic emissions reduction target that is aligned with the national 2050 net zero goal: Switzerland currently lacks a domestic emission reduction target, which significantly undermines the credibility of its climate action towards 2030 and beyond. To achieve an overall "Almost sufficient" rating, Switzerland must reduce at least 75% of the emissions reductions set in the NDC target domestically, and it must transparently communicate this and put it into law. In order to be 1.5°C compatible, however, Switzerland needs to lower its NDC target and deliver all emissions reductions within its borders.
• Better enhance international cooperation: Switzerland should continue its efforts to cooperate with other countries to support emissions reductions outside of its borders. However, it should prioritise its fair share of climate finance to developing countries ahead of engaging in deals to transfer mitigation outcomes from other countries to offset Switzerland's own high emissions. It should only embark on such cooperative approaches, involving a transfer of mitigation outcomes from other countries, once it has set a domestic emissions reduction target in line with the 1.5°C temperature limit and provided its fair share of climate finance.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Switzerland’s climate targets, policies and finance as “Insufficient” overall. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Switzerland’s climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Switzerland does not specify the domestic component of the 2030 emissions reduction target.

Based on our estimations, the domestic target would be rated “Insufficient” with keeping warming below 2°C. To improve its rating, Switzerland should set a domestic target that accounts for at least 75% of the anticipated emissions reductions under the NDC target. If fully implemented, Switzerland’s current policies and actions would be rated “Almost sufficient”, meaning that they are consistent with keeping warming below ­– but not well below – 2°C. This would be enough to achieve CAT’s estimated domestic target.

Switzerland’s efforts to tackle climate change are heading in the right direction, since passing the new Federal Act on a Secure Electricity Supply with Renewable Energy in June 2024.. Under current policies, we estimate that Switzerland will reach emission levels of around 28 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excluding LULUCF), reaching CAT’s estimated domestic NDC target for Switzerland of 35-38 MtCO₂e.

The CAT rates Switzerland’s current policies as “Almost Sufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The “Almost Sufficient” rating indicates that Switzerland’s climate policies and action until 2030 are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Switzerland’s approach, warming would reach below—but not well below— 2°C .

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

In its updated NDC, Switzerland removed the domestic emissions reduction component but continues to mention that an undefined portion of emission reductions will be achieved through the support of action abroad and transfer of the ownership of the associated mitigation outcomes.

Switzerland first aimed at achieve 75% of the emissions reductions of the NDC target (which is 50% reductions by 2030 below 1990) domestically, and later reduced this number to 66% in Swiss legislation and draft law documents, but finally removed it completely in the last version. Based on latest available information the CAT assesses that the Swiss government aims for domestic reduction of at least 60% to 67% of the full emissions reduction target.

The domestic component’s removal from official documents and the ambition reduction of the domestic reduction component make it challenging to hold Switzerland accountable and raises questions about the sincerity of Switzerland's climate commitments.

To rate Switzerland’s NDC, we use a range for the domestic component between 60% and 67% of the full target, which we rate as “Insufficient” when compared to global least cost modelled pathways. To be rated “Almost Sufficient”, this component would need to be at least 75%.

Switzerland’s domestic component of the NDC rating against modelled domestic pathways has deteriorated compared to our previous assessment due to an update in our modelled domestic pathways to the pathways assessed in the IPPC AR6. Our newer pathways better capture national circumstances and for higher temperature levels show less room for emissions growth.

The CAT’s assessment of the Switzerland’s total fair share contribution takes into account its emissions reduction target and its climate finance.

Switzerland’s has clearly stated that a portion of emission reductions will be achieved through the support of action abroad facilitated through cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The overall target is a reduction of “at least” 50% below 1990 levels by 2030. We rate the overall target, which includes its recent bilateral agreements with over 10 countries to purchase Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs), as “Insufficient” when compared to its fair share emissions allocation.

The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Switzerland’s fair share target in 2030 needs substantial improvement to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Some of these improvements should be made by increasing the ambition in the domestic target itself, whilst others could come in the form of providing climate finance to support additional emissions reductions in developing countries, without any transfer of ownership for these outcomes. If all countries followed Switzerland’s approach, warming would reach up to 3°C.

If we were to rate Switzerland’s estimated domestic target against its fair share, assuming that the bilateral agreements do not lead to an overall mitigation effect, the target would be “Highly insufficient”.

We rate Switzerland’s international public climate finance contributions as ‘Insufficient’. Switzerland has committed to increasing its climate finance and has steadily increased its spending leading to USD 411m public finance contributions in 2020. Nonetheless, this is lower than what would be required under its fair share. To improve its rating, Switzerland needs to ramp up its international climate finance contributions in the period post-2020.

Switzerland committed to a 2050 net-zero target as part of its long-term strategy submitted to the UNFCCC in 2021. The net-zero target now covers key elements and meets best practice standards for many of them. The CAT evaluates the net-zero target design as "Acceptable".

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.