Historical emissions data for 1990-2020 from the common report tables submitted as part of Switzerland’s GHG inventory (Government of Switzerland, 2022).
To estimate historic emissions in 2021, we used the IMF GDP growth rate to approximate the impact on energy and industry emissions (IMF, 2022). We assumed that agriculture and waste sector emissions followed the five year trend.
NDC and other targets
We calculated the 2030 targets using the most recent national inventory submissions (Government of Switzerland, 2022).
Switzerland’s NDC includes LULUCF. The NDC states the desire to use a reference level for forest land, while emissions for other land uses will be included both in the target and baseline years. We assume that the accounted LULUCF emissions in 2030 are the same as the projected LULUCF emissions (i.e. the forest reference level would be set at zero). This results in about 1 MtCO2e, which is added to the 2030 target. Since this is likely an over-estimate of the accounted LULUCF emissions, we show the target as a range, with the lower end of the range representing emission levels without the accounted LULUCF emissions.
Current policy projections
We use the “with measures” scenario submitted to the UNFCCC in Switzerland’s fourth biennial report for our current policy projections (Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft, 2020c). The scenario reflects the current state of legislation, also taking into account the stipulated strengthening of existing policies and measures (i.e. any strengthening foreseen under current legislation). This projection is harmonised to our estimate for emissions in 2021.
The planned policy projections scenario that was previously included in this profile that was based on the “with additional measures” scenario of the fourth biennial report has been removed in this update. Many of these measures were included in the amended version of the CO2 Act that was rejected in a June 2021 referendum, and it is not clear which of these measures will make it into the next iteration of the legislation. We have not included a planned policy projection in this update.
Global Warming Potentials values
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR).