Switzerland

Overall rating: Insufficient

Policies and action against modelled domestic pathways: Insufficient; < 3°C World

NDC target (domestic) against modelled domestic pathways: Almost Sufficient; < 2°C World

NDC target (full) against fair share: Insufficient; < 3°C World

Climate finance: Insufficient

Net zero target: year
2050; Comprehensiveness rated as
Average

Land use & forestry: Not significant

Target Overview

Switzerland submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC 9 December 2020, with a slight change from a 50% reduction below 1990 levels by 2030 to “at least 50%” below 1990 levels. This corresponds to an average reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 35% over the period 2021–2030. In absolute terms, this translates to emissions levels of at most 26-27 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF by 2030. Switzerland has also committed to reaching net zero GHG emissions by 2050, which is an enhancement of its previous objective of reducing emissions 70 to 85% below 1990 levels by 2050.

In its updated NDC, Switzerland aimed to increase the domestic emissions reduction component of its 2030 target to 75%, an increase of 15 percentage points from its previous 60% share, with the remaining emissions reductions under its overall 50% target to come from abroad, based on bilateral agreements. This increase in its domestic emissions reduction was part of the proposed amended CO₂ Act, which was rejected in a referendum in June 2021 (US Library of Congress, 2021).

A proposed revision to the CO₂ Act, released in December 2021, targets a 33% reduction in domestic emissions, which constitutes two thirds of the overall emissions reduction in its 50% target (Swiss Confederation, 2021a). A further update to its NDC was made which removed reference to the increased domestic emissions reduction that was included in its 2020 submission. This amended NDC was submitted to the UNFCCC on 17 December 2021 (Swiss Government, 2021b).

SWITZERLAND — Main climate targets

2030 NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC	A reduction of at least 50% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, corresponding to an average reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 35% over the period 2021–2030.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	Level of emissions to be achieved at home (domestic target included in revised CO2 Act) 36–37 MtCO₂e in 2030 [31–33% below 1990] [33–34% below 2010]
Status	NDC update submitted on 17 December 2021 (domestic target in legislation)

Net zero target
Formulation of target	Switzerland should achieve balanced greenhouse gas performance by 2050 at the latest (net zero).
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF	-0.8 MtCO₂e in 2030 [101% below 1990] [101% below 2010]
Status	Submitted on 28 January 2021

NDC Updates

The December 2020 update to Switzerland’s NDC target did not represent an increase in ambition, as it changed only from a 50% reduction below 1990 levels to an “at least” 50% reduction. The domestic component of the target increased from 60% to 75%, but after its rejection in a June 2021 referendum, proposed alternative legislation targets a 66% component. This represents a 33% domestic reduction and a 17% reduction achieved through emissions reductions occurring overseas. A further update to Switzerland’s NDC in December 2021 removed specific reference to a domestic component to its overall target, but we take the target as it appears in the proposed CO₂ Act.

SWITZERLAND	2016 NDC	2021 NDC Update
Formulation of target in NDC	To reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, corresponding to an average reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 35% over the period 2021-2030.	To reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, corresponding to an average reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 35% over the period 2021–2030.
Absolute emissions level excl. LULUCF	27–28 MtCO₂e by 2030	At most 36-37 MtCO₂e by 2030
Emissions compared to 1990 and 2010 excl. LULUCF	48–50% below 1990 emissions by 2030 49–51% below 2010 emissions by 2030	At least 31-33% below 1990 emissions by 2030 At least 33-34% below 2010 emissions by 2030
CAT rating	*Overall rating:** Insufficient	NDC target (domestic) against modelled domestic pathways: Almost sufficient NDC target against fair share: Insufficient
Sector coverage	Economy-wide	Economy-wide
Separate target for LULUCF	No	No
Gas coverage	All greenhouse gases	All greenhouse gases
Target type	Absolute emissions reduction from a base year	Absolute emissions reduction from a base year
Explanation why the target is a fair contribution towards the global goal	Switzerland claims its 50% below 1990 levels by 2030 target puts it on an emissions development pathway in line with the recommendations by science, but does not cite a specific source to back up its claim. It cites the previously accepted temperature goal of “below 2°C” rather than the 1.5°C or “well below 2°C” target of the Paris Agreement.	Without a meaningful increase in ambition, Switzerland maintains that its 2030 target puts it on an emissions development pathway in line with recommendations by science to keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. It does not provide a citation to demonstrate this point. This is the same language as in the previous NDC which claimed its 50% target was in line with keeping the global temperature increase to “below 2°C”.
Explanation why the target is a fair contribution towards the global goal	Not applicable	Yes

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

17.12.2021: Switzerland submitted a further update to its NDC to the UNFCCC
09.12.2020: Switzerland submitted its new NDC target to the UNFCCC

CAT rating of targets

High resolution

NDC description

Switzerland intends to achieve the remaining 34% of its amended target through Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs). Switzerland signed bilateral agreements with several countries including Peru, Ghana, Senegal, Georgia, Vanuatu, and Dominica since October 2020, which provide for cooperation on the transfer of mitigation outcomes.

The CAT rates Switzerland’s proposed domestic NDC target against modelled domestic pathways as “Almost sufficient” and its overall NDC target compared with its fair-share emissions allocation as “Insufficient.”

NDC target (domestic) against modelled domestic pathways: Almost Sufficient

We rate the proposed domestic component of Switzerland’s 2030 emissions target, a 33% reduction below 1990 levels, as “Almost sufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Switzerland’s domestic target in 2030 is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Switzerland’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

NDC target (full) against fair share: Insufficient

We rate Switzerland’s overall NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share emissions allocation. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Switzerland’s NDC needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Some of these improvements should be made to the domestic emissions target itself, others could come in the form of additional support for emissions reductions achieved in developing countries in the form of finance. If all countries were to follow Switzerland’s approach, warming would reach up to 3°C.

Switzerland’s international climate finance is rated “Insufficient” (see below) and is not enough to improve Switzerland’s fair share rating.

Switzerland’s international public climate finance contributions is rated “Insufficient”. Switzerland has committed to increase its climate finance but contributions to date have been very low compared to its fair share. To improve its rating Switzerland needs to ramp up the level of its international climate finance contributions and stop funding fossil fuel overseas.

Though Switzerland remains committed to the USD 100 bn goal in climate finance for developing countries per year through 2025, Switzerland’s financial commitments towards this goal fall short of its fair share contribution. The Swiss government estimates its fair share of international finance contributions to be around CHF 450-600m (Federal Council of Switzerland, 2017), while civil society organisations recommend a fair share of around CHF 1 bn per year (Alliance Sud, 2020). The USD 100 bn goal on itself is insufficient in the period post-2020.

Switzerland has increased its commitment to CHF 400m per year across 2021-2024 from on average CHF 300m per year from 2017-2020 (Eckstein et al., 2021; Government of Switzerland, 2020). Thus, the three-year trend in Switzerland’s levels of climate finance indicate an increased commitment to international climate finance (OECD, 2022). Not only is Switzerland one of the only countries that has explicitly prioritised an equal distribution of adaptation and mitigation funding for public bilateral financing (Alliance Sud, 2020), but it also intends to mobilise most of its finance through grants in the 2021-2024 period (Government of Switzerland, 2020). That being said, a clear and sustained increase in international climate finance is fundamental.

Switzerland has yet to commit to stop funding fossil fuels abroad, but the CAT has not found evidence of continued international fossil finance.

To fulfil the non-domestic component of its emissions reduction target, Switzerland has signed bilateral carbon credit agreements with Peru, Ghana, Senegal, Georgia, Vanuatu, and Dominica establishing cooperation for meeting its NDC (IHS Markit, 2021). These developments are not rated in this component of the CAT rating. Instead, the full international NDC, that includes such agreements, is rated against Switzerland’s fair share goal.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

In August 2019, the Vice President of the Swiss Federal Council announced an indicative target of emissions neutrality for Switzerland by 2050, updating its previous target of a 70-85% reduction below 1990 levels (Krummenacher, 2019). Its long-term climate strategy was submitted to the UNFCCC in January 2021. It outlined a number of sectoral goals and challenges among other details.

For the full analysis click here.