Viet Nam

This assessment includes our policy analysis for Viet Nam from 30 November 2020 translated into our new rating methodology. We have not undertaken any new analysis of Viet Nam’s climate polices. We will analyse Viet Nam fully in the coming months, at which time its ratings may change.

The CAT rates Viet Nam’s climate targets and policies as “Highly insufficient.” The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Viet Nam’s climate policies and commitments are not consistent with the Paris Agreement and lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions. Viet Nam’s conditional 2030 emissions reduction target is consistent with more than 4°C of warming when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways. Viet Nam’s unconditional target is consistent with a similar level of warming when compared to its fair share contribution. If fully implemented, Viet Nam’s current policies would result in emissions reductions beyond its targets, but still only in line with 3°C warming.

Viet Nam’s current policies are “Insufficient” when compared to their fair-share contribution. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Viet Nam’s climate policies and action in 2030 need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Viet Nam’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Viet Nam is further off track when compared with modelled domestic pathways and the extent of reductions that need to be taking place inside its borders with international support. Overall, Viet Nam needs to implement additional policies with its own resources but will also need international support to implement further policies in line with full decarbonisation.

There have been positive renewable energy policy developments in Viet Nam, but this does not outweigh carbon intensive plans. Solar capacity has increased despite the pandemic and global supply chain disruptions, and Viet Nam has met its solar target early. Viet Nam could become a regional leader for solar and has a large untapped potential for offshore wind, yet the coal pipeline is still expansive even considering draft plans to cancel some planned coal projects.

Viet Nam’s current policy pathway is not in line with the Paris Agreement, given the need to phase out coal for power generation by 2040 and to reach a Paris Agreement-compatible share of decarbonised electricity generation of at least 50% by 2030 in the ASEAN region according to research by Climate Analytics.

Viet Nam updated its Paris Agreement NDC target in 2020 without driving more ambitious action. The update resulted in a slightly lower emissions level that is still well above the current policy projection.

The CAT rates Viet Nam’s conditional 2030 target (its “internationally supported target”) as “Critically insufficient” against modelled domestic pathways. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Viet Nam’s internationally supported target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Viet Nam’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

The CAT rates Viet Nam’s unconditional 2030 target (its “fair share target”) as “Critically insufficient” against the fair share contribution. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Viet Nam’s fair share target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. Viet Nam’s target is not in line with any interpretation of a fair approach to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. If all countries were to follow Viet Nam’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Viet Nam does not have a net zero target.