RELEASE: 35 by 35 electrification target: from symbol to substance

New Climate Action Tracker report finds rapid, clean electrification is one of the main levers for limiting how far and how long the world overshoots 1.5°C

The "35 by 35" global electrification target being promoted by the twin COP31 Presidencies (Türkiye and Australia) will need to be translated into more specific targets for countries and sectors in order to be maximally effective, finds a new report by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT).

Under the proposed target, governments would aim to increase the share of global final energy consumption met by electricity from almost 24% in 2023 to 35% by 2035.

Read the report

The report makes clear why the target matters. Due to decades of insufficient action, the world can no longer avoid overshooting 1.5°C; delivering the Paris temperature goal now means minimising how far and for how long warming exceeds 1.5°C, reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century, and bringing warming back down significantly below 1.5°C by 2100.

Replacing fossil fuel combustion in transport, buildings and industry with renewable electricity is one of the main ways to deliver the rapid emissions cuts this requires.

The report finds that reaching 35 by 35 would require electrification to accelerate almost four-fold. Current policies deliver only 28% by 2035, on a trajectory the IEA associates with around 2.5°C of warming by 2100.

But 35% should be seen as a floor for ambition rather than a ceiling: Paris-aligned pathways reach 34–41% in 2035, and thereafter the electrification rate continues to increase, reaching 54–68% by 2050.

Commenting, Samuel Guéret, a CAT Climate and Energy Policy Analyst with partner organisation Climate Analytics, said: “The 35 by 35 target is critical for advancing action on climate change, but needs to be one of a suite of complementary actions that also includes scaling up renewables, improving energy efficiency and phasing out fossil fuels to limit the overshoot of 1.5°C and bring warming back below it."

“The target is not the endpoint, but an important milestone on a longer and deeper electrification journey. And electrification only limits overshoot if the electricity is cleanly generated, which is why this target should be seen as part of a package with the renewables and efficiency targets agreed at COP28; taken alone, countries could meet the target by simply adding electricity to the system (e.g. data centres) or by keeping or even adding fossil fuels to electricity systems.”

The 35 by 35 goal was adopted by COP31 Presidency Türkiye and the Presidency of Negotiations, Australia, to sit alongside the COP28 goals of tripling renewable capacity and doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements – both by 2030 – as an additional measure to guide action aligned with 1.5°C. Renewables displace fossil fuels in electricity generation and electrification replaces fossil fuel use outside the power sector, while efficiency gains reduce the amount of electricity needed.

The report argues that as climate policy shifts from target-setting to implementation, benchmarks remain important for assessing whether planned or delivered action is sufficient. This is particularly true for electrification, as definitions, indicators and reference points remain uneven across sectors and countries.

Because no single metric can capture all aspects of the electrification process, the report recommends a multi-layered framework to provide a comprehensive assessment of electrification. A comprehensive and detailed set of indicators could help policymakers raise ambition and translate a broad economy-wide target into components that can be targeted by policies.

Such a framework would combine:

• Economy-wide benchmarks establishing the overall direction of travel and the link to global temperature climate targets
• Sectoral benchmarks that help identify where electrification needs to occur and differences across end-use sectors
• Technology deployment indicators that help translating targets into more actionable deployment requirements
• Enabling indicators connecting electrification with decarbonisation of the power system.

Pablo Blasco Ladrero, an energy analyst with CAT partner organisation NewClimate Institute, said: “The ongoing climate crisis has this year combined with yet another fossil fuel supply crisis to turbocharge interest in electrification as not just a potential solution to climate change but also a means to bolster energy security.

“Effective benchmarks, structured into a multi-layered framework, help translate electrification targets into concrete sectoral action, supporting alignment with climate objectives while delivering energy security benefits.”

The report says that transmission and distribution networks, interconnection, storage, demand response and flexible operation must expand ahead of, or at least alongside, electricity demand. Otherwise rising electricity demand may just extend the operation of existing coal- and gas-fired facilities or even spur construction of new ones, meaning more warming for longer.

New technologies should also sit alongside complementary actions like insulation, compact urban form, public transport and material efficiency.

The report also says that a common global target should not be applied equally to every sector nor every country. For sectors, this is due to differences in technologies and electrification rates across transport, buildings and industry. For countries, structural conditions shape starting points and opportunities for electrification; demand growth and unmet energy needs influence the scale of electricity required; and access, affordability and capacity considerations shape implementation and support needs.

In addition, it notes that electricity access and affordability are essential for a just transition. Lower lifetime costs do not remove upfront investment barriers; so finance, consumer protection, social policy, workforce planning and safeguards for critical-mineral supply chains shape who benefits and who bears the costs. These conditions determine the feasibility, speed and legitimacy of the transition, and therefore need to be considered alongside technical feasibility.

Read the report