Argentina

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Argentina's unconditional commitment falls into the very lower-emissions end of the “Critically insufficient” category, close to the border with the "Highly insufficient" category, and without qualifying factors would result in such a rating. However, Argentina has an additional conditional target of limiting emissions to no more than 369 MtCO₂e including LULUCF by 2030 (or to 310 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF) which is at the upper-emissions end of the CAT’s “Insufficient” range. Based on the CAT's assessment of the present positive direction of the political and policy discussion in Argentina, the country is rated in the lower-emissions category of “Highly insufficient”, rather than “Critically insufficient”.

A second argument for giving Argentina this higher rating could be the revision of the NDC, in which Argentina transparently shared the details of their mitigation target in the updated version of their NDC, putting forward an absolute target (i.e. an absolute limit to their emissions growth as opposed to reductions below business-as-usual, or an intensity target). The updated NDC enhanced the mitigation target both in absolute and relative terms, compared to the first NDC submitted. We consider these actions as good practices that increase the robustness of the commitment.

The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow Argentina’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means Argentina’s climate commitment is not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

If Argentina decided to increase its ambition by turning its conditional target into an unconditional one, the country would move to the “Insufficient” rating under the CAT assessment. Commitments with this rating are in the least stringent part of their fair share range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in (I)NDCs. If the CAT were to rate Argentina’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, we would rate Argentina “Critically insufficient”.

For further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories click here.