Brazil

Historical emissions from 1990 to 2020 are taken from Brazil’s annual estimated GHG emissions inventory (Ministerio da Ciencia Tecnologia e Inovacaoes, 2022). We estimated emissions for 2021 and 2022 using the sectoral growth rates for each sector as reported by the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimation System (SEEG) initiative (SEEG, 2023b).

LULUCF emissions from 1990 to 2020 are taken directly from Brazil’s annual estimated GHG emissions inventory (Ministerio da Ciencia Tecnologia e Inovacaoes, 2022).

The CAT rating of Brazil’s NDC is based on its 2030 target as communicated in their NDC submitted in October 2023 (Government of Brazil, 2023b). Brazil’s 2030 NDC target covers emissions from all sectors and six gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs and SF₆).

Brazil’s NDC provides an absolute emissions level for 2025 and 2030, including LULUCF, and is reported using AR5 GWP values. The CAT converted the emissions level for both 2025 and 2030 to AR4 GWP using a gas-by-gas and sector-by-sector approach to recalculate emissions from 2005 (baseline year) in AR4. This results in emissions levels of 1.30 GtCO₂e in 2025 and 1.18 GtCO₂e in 2030.

The CAT then proceeds to estimate and exclude emissions from the LULUCF sector. For this, we take LULUCF emissions for 2025 and 2030 as reported in the government’s report titled “Mitigation trajectories and public policy instruments to achieve Brazil's goals under the Paris Agreement” (Ministério da Ciência Tecnologia Inovações e Comunicações Brasil, 2017). The LULUCF emissions levels in 2025 and 2030 are 321 MtCO₂e and 298 MtCO₂e, respectively. These national projections for LULUCF do not include the current fluctuations in deforestation rates; if emissions from deforestation would rise again, Brazil would need to further reduce emissions in other sectors in order to meet their NDC target.

Our NDC estimates are highly dependent on the assumptions of the LULUCF contribution to overall emissions which, based on historical trends, can vary significantly. We use projections as reported by the government in 2017 for consistency and to allow for comparison between target updates in recent years. We expect additional clarity from Brazil on the role of LULUCF emissions in its targets for its next communication.

Brazil has committed to being climate neutral by 2050. However, given the lack of additional details communicated so far, we were unable to provide an accurate estimate of what Brazil’s 2050 target means for the country’s emissions. Further clarity on sectoral contributions, assumptions on the role LULUCF would play in achieving the target and potential use of international carbon credits would be helpful to assess the comprehensiveness of the target.

We include Brazil in our ‘Optimistic scenario’ as part of our 2100 temperature warming estimate. We include a “CAT estimate” of Brazil’s climate neutrality target, which represents our assessment of what the target could represent. We assume that Brazil will achieve net zero by 2070 (excluding emissions from LULUCF) with a linear progression from the country’s last target (the 2030 NDC in 2030) to zero in 2070. This scenario translates into Brazil needing a sink of roughly 440 MtCO₂e in 2050 to reach its carbon neutrality goal.

For the current policies scenario, we present a range which is calculated as described below.

Higher end of the range:

• Energy and Industry sector CO₂ emissions are taken from the latest projections from the World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2023b).
• Energy, Industry, Agriculture and Waste sector non-CO₂ emissions are taken from the US EPA “Non-CO₂ GHG emissions” report with data available for the period between 1990 to 2030 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019).
• Other CO₂ emissions from the agriculture sector are calculated based on the historical trend of the sector’s CO₂ emissions (2013-2022).
• Other CO₂ emissions for the waste sector are calculated by taking the average level of the last four years at 2022 levels.
• All of the above were harmonised to the last historical data point.

Lower end of the range:

Total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF taken from the 2023 Global Energy and Climate Outlook (JRC, 2023) and harmonised to the last historical data point.

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).