Brazil

Lula’s administration has reverted to the original NDC absolute emission targets Brazil submitted when it joined the Paris Agreement in 2016, doing away with the many NDC updates and creative accounting of the previous administration.

Under these ‘new, old’ targets, Brazil commits to limiting its emissions to 1.32 GtCO₂e (AR5) in 2025 and 1.2 GtCO₂e (AR5) in 2030. The limits include land sector emissions.

Brazil will need to cut its emissions, especially in the land sector, to achieve these targets.

We did not consider these targets to be particularly ambitious when they were first proposed in 2016, as the 2005 base year had high levels of deforestation (and thus land sector emissions), which have since fallen. Lack of climate action and high levels of deforestation under the previous administration make the emission limits more difficult to achieve, although deforestation has fallen significantly again since Lula took office at the beginning of this year.

The NDC limits are consistent with a 26% reduction below 2020 levels (48.4% below 2005) in 2025 and a 33% reduction below 2020 levels (53.1% below 2005) in 2030 (AR5, incl. LULUCF).

The CAT estimates that these targets equate to around 980 MtCO₂e in 2025 and 885 MtCO₂e in 2030, once the land sector is removed (and converting to AR4 GWPs), although our estimate is highly contingent on assumptions made about the extent to which Brazil relies on the land sector to achieve its NDC.

Brazil has not indicated the extent to which it will rely on reducing emissions from its land sector to achieve its NDC. The 2023 resubmission only mentions Brazil’s commitment to achieve zero deforestation in 2030 (the original NDC has zero illegal Amazon deforestation and the 2022 update had all illegal deforestation gone by 2028). It is preparing a sectoral climate plan for the land sector through to 2035. We expect additional clarity from Brazil when this plan is released.

Reverting to the old target was the least Brazil could do. It does not represent an increase in ambition, nor does it respond to the COP26 mandate to revisit and strengthen 2030 targets.

Brazil is in the process of developing an indicative 2035 target and has indicated it will submit a second NDC in 2025 (keeping with the existing calendar under the Paris Agreement).

Brazil’s aims to achieve “climate neutrality” by 2050, a target reiterated in its 2023 NDC submission. Brazil has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.

* Using Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC AR5 report
** For details on what we do for our Optimistic Target global temperature estimate, please see the Assumptions tab.

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be, as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. According to our methods, Brazil should decarbonise much of its economy using its own resources but would still need a small amount of support to achieve a 1.5°C compatible pathway. It is important to stress that our methods do not consider the level of support that Brazil will need to address deforestation and protect the Amazon.

The CAT rates Brazil’s NDC target in 2030 as "Almost sufficient" when considered against both what it needs to do within its borders (i.e. against a 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathway), and what would be its fair share contribution.

The CAT assesses emissions excluding LULUCF.

We rate Brazil’s 2030 NDC target as “Almost sufficient” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways.

The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Brazil’s NDC target in 2030 is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Brazil’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

Lula’s administration has reverted to the original NDC absolute emission targets submitted in 2016, doing away with the many NDC updates and creative accounting of the previous administration. While the original NDC is stronger than the 2022 NDC, it is not enough to improve its rating against our modelled domestic pathways.

To be 1.5°C compatible, Brazil would need to reduce emissions by 14% below 2005 levels (excluding the land sector), compared to the approximate 7% reduction below 2005 levels we calculate the original NDC will achieve.

Brazil is one of the few countries to also adopt a 2025 target.

It is not on track to achieve either its 2025 or 2030 targets and will need to adopt additional policies to cut its emissions.

We rate Brazil’s 2030 NDC target as “Almost sufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action.

Lula’s administration has reverted to the original NDC absolute emission targets submitted in 2016, doing away with the many NDC updates and creative accounting of the previous administration. The target still falls short of being a fair contribution by Brazil to global climate action, but has improved one category over the previous NDC submitted in 2022.

The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Brazil’s 2030 target is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Brazil’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

In November 2023, Brazil resubmitted the emissions limits for 2025 and 2030 originally included in the NDC submitted when it joined the Paris Agreement in 2016. The resubmission puts an end to the creative accounting used under the previous administration. While it does include some improvements in the architecture of the target, we do not consider it to present an increase in ambition overall.

In its original 2016 NDC, Brazil committed to 37% reduction below 2005 levels by 2025 and provided an indicative target for 2030 of 43% below 2005 levels. It included the base year and emission levels for these targets in its NDC: 2.1GtCO₂e (AR5) for 2005, 1.3GtCO₂e for 2025 and 1.2GtCO₂e for 2030.

In the 2023 submission, Brazil reconfirmed the 1.3GtCO₂e and 1.2GtCO₂e emission limits. It noted that these limits are consistent with emission reductions of 48.4% and 53.1%, respectively, below 2005 levels based on the latest inventory data; in this case, the 4th National Communication which has a 2005 base year of 2.56GtCO₂e (AR5). Brazil will rely on the latest inventory when assessing compliance with this target, meaning there may be slight fluctuations in the base year and percentage reduction targets as the historical timeseries is revised and improved in future inventories (a common occurrence).

While the emission limits for 2025 and 2030 are the same in the two submissions, we consider the nature of Brazil’s target formulation to have changed slightly (and for the better). In the 2016 submission, the emphasis was placed on the reduction targets, with the emission limits provided for further information. In the 2023 submission, the emission limits are firm, with the reduction targets provided for further information, and for which it is clear that these percentage reduction figures may vary slightly in the future, with inventory changes.

Formulating targets as emission limits provide greater certainty and Brazil is to be commended for formulating the target in this manner. Brazil’s submissions in 2020 and 2022 highlighted how percentage reductions from a base year can be gamed if significant changes to the base year are made. In essence, percentage reductions may be held constant or even increased, but could still result in higher overall emission in the target year if base year emissions are increased substantially (see our past assessments for more detail).

Brazil is one of the few countries that has both a 2025 and 2030 target and has indicated that its next target will also be on a five-year scale to 2035. A five-year target cycle is preferable as it is more in line with government accountability cycles (elections) and allows for considering the rate of technological change.

Brazil will ‘strive’ to meet its targets through domestic measures, but has not ruled out the use of international carbon markets (i.e. use of ITMOs – internationally transferred mitigation outcomes), either as a buyer or seller.

Brazil’s targets are not conditional on international support, though cooperation is welcome.

* The difference in the CAT quantification of the original and 2023 NDC emissions limits is due to our conversion into AR4 values and the method use (see the Assumptions tab for details). The limits put forward by Brazil are the same.
** Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target. In the case of Brazil, the target fell into the Insufficient range (based on our previous fair share ranges). We are showing how it would have been rating under our current system for the sake of comparability.

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

• 9.12.2020: Brazil submitted an updated NDC to the UNFCCC

Brazil’s aims to achieve “climate neutrality” by 2050, a target reiterated in its 2023 NDC submission. Brazil has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.