Brazil has submitted two updates to its original NDC, one in 2020 and the second more recently in April 2022. Brazil strengthened its economy-wide unconditional 2030 target in the latest update to 50% below 2005, but due to changes in how base year emissions are estimated, the latest update is still weaker than Brazil’s original NDC in terms of absolute emissions reductions. This update is not aligned with the principles of the Paris Agreement mandate to increase ambition in successive updates.
Brazil’s commitments also include a long-term objective to achieve “climate neutrality” by 2050. Despite being mentioned in the NDC and as a pledge during COP26, Brazil still has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.
Some progress is reflected in a document prepared by the Ministry of Environment, as a roadmap or guidelines to become carbon neutral. There is a proposed law No. 6539 that was already approved by the Senate in November 2021 and is under study by the Chamber of Deputies. In this new law, where the goal of neutrality by 2050 is explicitly included, the ambiguity about the emissions included in the target, carbon dioxide or all greenhouse gas emissions, remains.
The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C would be as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. The CAT assesses emissions excluding LULUCF, and shows emissions from LULUCF separately.
The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C would be as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. Brazil will need support to achieve those necessary reductions within its borders.
Brazil has one NDC target. It has not specified whether a portion of the target is conditional on international support, so we rate its 2030 NDC target against both metrics.
The CAT rates Brazil’s NDC target in 2030 as "Almost sufficient" when rated against what it needs to do within its borders (i.e. against a 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathway), and "Insufficient" when rated against what would be its fair share contribution.
In 2022, Brazil submitted a second NDC update, which improved emissions targets compared to the 2020 submission. However, due to changes in reference emissions used to calculate the targets, the latest submission remains weaker compared to Brazil’s original NDC, submitted in 2016. We rate the 2030 NDC target as “Almost sufficient” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Brazil’s NDC target in 2030 is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Brazil’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.
Brazil could reach its 2025 target but is not on track to meet its 2030 target as emissions are projected to continue to increase in the coming decade.
This rating takes into account the fact that Brazil would need international support for a portion of the actions required to be consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature limit. As Brazil has not submitted a conditional target, we rate the unconditional target here.
We rate Brazil’s 2030 NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action.
The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Brazil’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Brazil’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Brazil’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C
Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.
Brazil has submitted two updates to its NDC, one in 2020 and more recently in April 2022.
While the original NDC, submitted in 2016, translated both emissions reduction targets into absolute emissions in 2025 and 2030, the latest updated NDC does not provide such a translation. Instead, it states that the base year emissions level of 2005 can be compared to the latest inventory, that is, the Fourth National Communication. Unlike the original NDC, the latest submissions do not mention specific or additional sectoral plans. The need for international financial support is mentioned, but not specified.
In Brazil’s original NDC, submitted in 2016, the government set targets for a 45% share of renewables in the primary energy mix and a 23% share of renewables (other than hydropower) in the power supply mix by 2030. These targets were not updated, nor included, in the latest NDC.
Our calculations show that in comparison to the original NDC, the change in base year emissions data raises target emissions in 2025 and 2030 by over 70 MtCO2e. Rather than enhancing Brazil’s NDC, changes in the base year have weakened the original target. Despite increasing the percentage value and being lower than the 2020 NDC update, the absolute final emissions level resulting from the 2022 NDC update is still higher than the original NDC.
Analysis of earlier NDC developments:
Net zero and other long-term target(s)
Brazil has not submitted an LTS to the UNFCCC. The 2022 NDC update includes a long-term objective to achieve “climate neutrality” by 2050. The announcement was also made during COP26.
However, there has been some progress, reflected in a document prepared by the Ministry of Environment: a roadmap or guidelines for carbon neutrality. There is also a proposed law No. 6539 approved by the Senate in November 2021, which is under study by the Chamber of Deputies. In this new law, the goal of neutrality by 2050 is stated as an article.
Brazil has not made any clarification as to whether the net zero target includes all gases or only CO2. Of all gases including LULUCF, methane represents almost 30% of the national total. Methane emissions from agriculture is of relevance for the country.
For the full analysis, click here.
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