Historical data until 2019 for all sectors apart from LULUCF are taken from the PRIMAP-hist dataset (Gütschow et al., 2021).
To estimate emissions for 2020, we applied a sector-by-sector approach. For emissions from energy and industry, we applied growth rates from Global Carbon Budget for the year 2020 (Global Carbon Project, 2020). These growth rates are for CO2 only, but most of Brazil’s emissions from energy and industry are CO2, so it is a reasonable approximation to apply these rates to the sectors. For agriculture, waste and other emissions, a 5 year trend was used as these sectors were minimally impacted during the pandemic.
LULUCF historical data until 2016 is taken from Brazil’s Fourth National Communication NC4 (Ministry of Science Technology and Innovation of Brazil, 2020). LULUCF emissions for 2017-2020 were estimated using SEEG growth rate and NC4 values.
NDC and other targets
In the absence of a clear split between LULUCF and non-LULUCF emissions, the CAT estimates the NDC for Brazil on emissions excl. LULUCF as follows: We calculate the 43 and 50% reduction below 2005 levels suggested in the NDC (including LULUCF) and subtract from these levels the most recently projected LULUCF values (Ministério da Ciência Tecnologia Inovações e Comunicações Brasil, 2017) from these levels to estimate the emissions reduction target excluding LULUCF. Given that the target emissions levels provided in the NDC use Global Warming Potentials (GWP) consistent with the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) we convert those target levels to GWP AR4 by applying the reduction rates to historical 2005 emissions levels in GWP from AR4.
The national projection we use for LULUCF does not include the effects of recent increases in deforestation rates; if emissions from deforestation continue to rise, Brazil’s other emissions would need to be reduced further in order to meet the NDC.
Current policy projections
The current trend projections for energy are based on the World Energy Outlook (WEO) Stated Policies scenario projections for CO2 2021 (IEA, 2021). In addition, we estimate the impact of the new annual national emissions intensity targets of the RenovaBio policy, which gives us the more ambitious end of our current policy projection range. For this, we estimate the underlying emissions intensity in the WEO projections and included the avoided emissions resulting from the Resolution No. 5 of June 2018 and subsequence updates.
For emissions from industry, we assume the average growth rate of the last ten years will be maintained until 2030.
For non-CO2 emissions, we base our estimates on the US EPA projections until 2030 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019). To ensure consistency, we harmonise the results of our current policy projection to the last available historical data point.
Global Warming Potentials
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series.
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