Brazil

Overall rating: Insufficient

Policies and action against modelled domestic pathways: Insufficient; < 3°C World

NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Almost Sufficient; < 2°C World

NDC target against fair share: Insufficient; < 3°C World

Climate finance: Not applicable

Net zero target: year
2050; Comprehensiveness not rated as
Information incomplete

Land use & forestry: historically considered a
Source

List of references

ANGELO, C., & WERNECK, F. (2021). O teste de fidelidade de Joaquim Leite. Observatório Do Clima. https://www.oc.eco.br/o-teste-de-fidelidade-de-joaquim-leite/
ANP. (2020). Dados estatísticos: Vendas de derivados de petróleo e etanol. Retrieved from http://www.anp.gov.br/dados-estatisticos
Araújo, G. (2021, July). Brazil raises mandatory biodiesel blend to 12%, below expectations. Reuters News.
ARGUS media (2021). Brazil auction brings LNG-to-power with high costs. https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2268732-brazil-auction-brings-lngtopower-with-high-costs
Azevedo-Ramos, C., Moutinho, P., Laísa, V., Arruda, S., Stabile, M. C. C., Alencar, A., … Ribeiro, P. (2020). Lawless land in no man’s land: The undesignated public forests in the Brazilian Amazon. Land Use Policy, 99, 104863. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104863
Brito, B. (2021). Brazil’s Amazon Is Under Threat from Proposed Land-Use Laws. Americas Quarterly. https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-amazon-is-under-threat-from-proposed-land-use-laws/
Business Wire. (2021). Brazilian Natural Gas Market Growth Opportunities 2021: Biomethane Takes Off as an Alternative Gas Supply - ResearchAndMarkets.com. Business Wire. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210917005154/en/Brazilian-Natural-Gas-Market-Growth-Opportunities-2021-Biomethane-Takes-Off-as-an-Alternative-Gas-Supply---ResearchAndMarkets.com
Climate Policy Initiative. (2019a). Amendments to a provisional measure threaten the implementation of Brazil’s new Forest Code. Retrieved from https://climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/amendments-of-a-provisional-measure-threaten-the-implementation-of-brazils-new-forest-code/
Climate Policy Initiative. (2019b). Decreto no 9.760/2019 altera regras de conversão de multa ambiental em prestação de serviços ambientais - CPI. Retrieved from https://climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/decreto-no-9-760-2019-altera-regras-de-conversao-de-multa-ambiental-em-prestacao-de-servicos-ambientais/
Climate Transparency. (2021). Brazil: Climate Transparency Report. https://www.climate-transparency.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/CT2021Brazil.pdf
Conselho nacional de política energética. (2018). Resolução No5, de Junho de 2018, 2018–2019.
Cuartas, L. A. et al. (2022) Recent Hydrological Droughts in Brazil and Their Impact on Hydropower Generation. Water (Basel) 14, 601.
Fellet, J. (2022). 36 indígenas e aliados foram ameaçados de morte em 2021; saiba quem são. BBC NEWS .
Ferraz, A. (2021). Brazil holds emergency auction to mitigate impact of water crisis . The Brazilian Report
Fragoso, R. et al. (2021). Analise das emissoes brasileiras de Gases de Efeito Estufa e suas implicacaoes para as metas climaticas do Brasil 1990-2020. https://seeg-br.s3.amazonaws.com/Documentos%20Analiticos/SEEG_9/OC_03_relatorio_2021_FINAL.pdf.
Global Carbon Project. (2020). Carbon budget and trends 2020. https://www.globalcarbonproject.org
Government of Brazil. (2020). Brazil’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Retrieved from https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Brazil First/Brazil First NDC (Updated submission).pdf
Government of Brazil. Brazil Directrizes to build a strategy for Climate neutrality. https://www.gov.br/mma/pt-br/DiretrizesparaumaEstratgiaNacionalparaNeutralidadeClimtica.pdf.
Government of Brazil. (2022) Brazil NDC updated. https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Brazil%20First/Updated%20-%20First%20NDC%20-%20%20FINAL%20-%20PDF.pdf.
Gütschow, J., Günther, A., & Pflüger, M. (2021). The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5175154
IEA. (2019). World Energy Outlook 2019. https://doi.org/10.1049/ep.1977.0180
IEA. (2021). World Energy Outlook 2021 . https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021
Imazon. (2021). Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon reached 2,095 km2 in July, and the last 12 months cumulative is the highest in 10 years. Imazon. https://imazon.org.br/en/imprensa/deforestation-in-the-brazilian-amazon-reached-2-095-km2-in-july-and-the-last-12-months-cumulative-is-the-highest-in-10-years/
IMAZON. (2020). Nota técnica sobreMedida Provisória n.o 910/2019. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1e24
IMF. (2020). World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020. Washington, D.C., United States: IMF.
International Monetary Fund. (2022). Brazil country data. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/BRA.
Imprensa Nacional. (2020). INSTRUÇÃO NORMATIVA No 9, DE 16 DE ABRIL DE 2020. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://www.in.gov.br/en/web/dou/-/instrucao-normativa-n-9-de-16-de-abril-de-2020-253343033
INPE-EM. (2020). INPE Emission Module: Land cover changes greenhouse gases. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from http://inpe-em.ccst.inpe.br/en/home/
INPE. (2020). TerraBrasilis PRODES (deforestation). Retrieved August 3, 2020, from http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/dashboard/deforestation/biomes/legal_amazon/rates
Ionova, A. (2021). As soy frenzy grips Brazil, deforestation closes in on Indigenous lands. Mongabay. https://news.mongabay.com/2021/07/as-soy-frenzy-grips-brazil-deforestation-closes-in-on-indigenous-lands/
Kimbrough, L. (2021). Soy and cattle team up to drive deforestation in South America: Study. Mongabay. https://news.mongabay.com/2021/07/study-shows-how-soy-cattle-team-up-to-drive-deforestation-in-south-america/
MAPA, M. of A. livestock and F. S. (2021). ABC+ Plan for Adaptation and low carbon Emission in Agriculture - Strategic vision for a new cycle. https://www.gov.br/agricultura/pt-br/assuntos/sustentabilidade/plano-abc/arquivo-publicacoes-plano-abc/abc-english.pdf.
Ministério da Ciência Tecnologia Inovações e Comunicações Brasil. (2017). Contribuição do MCTIC para a elaboração da estratégia de implementação da Contribuição Nacionalmente Determinada do Brasil ao Acordo de Paris (Vol. 5, Issue 2001).
Ministério de Minas e Energia. (2019). Relatórios EPE - Estudos Complementares.
Ministerio de Minas Energia do Brasil. (2021). CNPE reduz de 13% para 10% a adição de biodiesel ao óleo diesel. MME Noticias.
Ministério de Minas e Energia. (2021). Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) 2031. https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-en/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/Paginas/PDE-2031---English-Version.aspx
Ministry of Science Technology and Innovation of Brazil. (2016a). Executive Summary - Third National Communication of Brazil to the UNFCCC. Brasilia, Brazil: Ministry of Science Technology and Innovation.
Ministry of Science Technology and Innovation of Brazil. (2016b). Volume III - Third National Communication of Brazil to the UNFCCC (Vol. III). Brasilia, Brazil: Ministry of Science Technology and Innovation.
Ministry of Science Technology and Innovation of Brazil. (2020). Fourth National Communication of Brazil to the UNFCCC. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/4a Comunicacao Nacional.pdf
Mongabay. (2019). In surprise move, Brazil has removed restrictions on Amazon sugarcane production. Mongabay. Retrieved from https://news.mongabay.com/2019/11/in-a-surprise-move-even-to-the-sugarcane-industry-president-bolsonaro-has-removed-restrictions-on-sugarcane-production-in-the-brazilian-amazon-experts-expect-land-speculators-to-benefit/
Mongabay. (2020a). Brazil’s past finance ministers defend environment against Bolsonaro. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://news.mongabay.com/2020/07/brazils-past-finance-ministers-defend-environment-against-bolsonaro/
Mongabay. (2020b). Brazil drastically reduces controls over suspicious Amazon timber exports. Retrieved August 3, 2020, from https://news.mongabay.com/2020/03/brazil-drastically-reduces-controls-over-suspicious-amazon-timber-exports/
Mongabay. (2020c). International investors urge Brazil to take real action to stop deforestation. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://news.mongabay.com/2020/07/international-investors-urge-brazil-to-take-real-action-to-stop-deforestation/
Morais, L. (2021). Brazil sets price caps for Oct 25 reserve energy auction. Renewables Now. https://renewablesnow.com/news/brazil-sets-price-caps-for-oct-25-reserve-energy-auction-756402/
Neves, R. (2022). Sob Bolsonaro, Amazônia viu subir desmatamento, garimpo e violência... - . UOL noticias.
New Climate Institute. (2020). Changes in the biodiesel blending mandate 2020-2023 (Brazil). Climate Policy Database.
Observatório do Clima. (2018, August 9). Emissões do Brasil não justificam otimismo com meta de 2020. Retrieved from http://www.observatoriodoclima.eco.br/emissoes-brasil-nao-justificam-otimismo-com-meta-de-2020/
Observatório do Clima. (2019a). Forest Facts: myths about land use in Brazil, debunked. Youtube. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX9s_eznvpY
Observatório do Clima. (2019b). Is Brazil on its way to meet its climate targets? Retrieved from http://www.observatoriodoclima.eco.br/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Is-Brazil-on-the-way-to-meet-its-climate-targets_-1.pdf
Observatório do Clima. (2019c, April 12). Bolsonaro inaugura era da multa zero. Retrieved May 3, 2019, from http://www.observatoriodoclima.eco.br/bolsonaro-multa-zero/
Observatório do Clima. (2019d, April 12). Revogaço reafirma incompetência de Bolsonaro e pode dar prejuízo ao país. Retrieved from http://www.observatoriodoclima.eco.br/revogaco-pode-dar-prejuizo-ao-pais/
Observatório do Clima. (2019e, August 29). Brasil perdeu 2,5 Alemanhas em florestas em 33 anos. Retrieved from http://www.observatoriodoclima.eco.br/brasil-perdeu-25-alemanhas-em-florestas-em-34-anos/
Observatório do Clima. (2020a). How threatened is the environment under the bolsonaro administration, so far? A brief context about environmental policy in brazil, sixteen months into the bolsonaro administration. Retrieved from http://www.observatoriodoclima.eco.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Doc-Response-OC2.pdf
Observatório do Clima. (2020b). Um dia depois de reunião com investidores, alertas de desmatamento têm novo pico. Retrieved August 2, 2020, from http://www.observatoriodoclima.eco.br/um-dia-depois-de-reuniao-com-investidores-alertas-de-desmatamento-tem-novo-pico/
Observatório do Clima. (2021). Civil society organizations reject the Ministry of Economy’s anti-environment package.
Offshore Technology. (2021). Brazil and Argentina in talks on billion-dollar gas pipeline project. Offshore-Technology.Com. https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/brazil-argentina-gas-pipeline/
PetroNoticias. (2020). 10 YEAR ENERGY PLAN PROVIDES RESOURCES UP TO $ 454 BILLION AND 39 NEW PLATFORMS BY 2030 IN BRAZIL. Brazil Energy Insight. https://brazilenergyinsight.com/2020/12/15/10-year-energy-plan-provides-resources-up-to-454-billion-and-39-new-platforms-by-2030-in-brazil/
Pierry, F. (2021). Brazil pushing gas-fired power as hydro sources dry up. Argus Media. https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2203894-brazil-pushing-gasfired-power-as-hydro-sources-dry-up
PORTARIA NORMATIVA No 24/GM/MME, DE 17 DE SETEMBRO DE 2021, (2021). https://www.in.gov.br/web/dou/-/portaria-normativa-n-24/gm/mme-de-17-de-setembro-de-2021-345760051
Presidência da República. (2010). Decreto no 7.390 de 9 de dezembro de 2010, 16–20. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-73301999000300018
Rajão, B. R., Soares-filho, B., Nunes, F., Börner, J., Machado, L., Assis, D., … Gibbs, H. (2020). The rotten apples of Brazil’s agribusiness, 0–3.
Rochedo, P. R. R., Soares-Filho, B., Schaeffer, R., Viola, E., Szklo, A., Lucena, A. F. P., Koberle, A., Davis, J. L., Rajão, R., & Rathmann, R. (2018). The threat of political bargaining to climate mitigation in Brazil. Nature Climate Change, 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0213-y
Reuters. (2020). Fires in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest surge in July, worst in recent days. Retrieved September 1, 2020, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-environment-idUSKBN24X3SW
Rochedo, P. R. R., Soares-Filho, B., Schaeffer, R., Viola, E., Szklo, A., Lucena, A. F. P., … Rathmann, R. (2018). The threat of political bargaining to climate mitigation in Brazil. Nature Climate Change, 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0213-y
SEEG. (2020). Impacto da pandemia de Covid-19 nas emissoes de gases de efeito estufa no Brasil. Retrieved from https://seeg-br.s3.amazonaws.com/OC_nota_tecnica_FINAL.pdf
Senado Federal. (2021). PL 1539 Law project.
Silva Junior, C. H. L., Pessôa, A. C. M., Carvalho, N. S., Reis, J. B. C., Anderson, L. O., & Aragão, L. E. O. C. (2021). The Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate in 2020 is the greatest of the decade. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 5(2), 144–145. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-01368-x
Sistema de Estimativas de Emissoes e Remocoes de gases de efeito Estufa SEEG. (2022). Emissions by sector. Mudanca de Uso da Terra e Florestas. https://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/sectors/mudanca-de-uso-da-terra-e-floresta#.
Soterroni, A. C., Mosnier, A., Carvalho, A. X. Y., Câmara, G., Obersteiner, M., Andrade, P. R., … Ramos, F. M. (2018). Future environmental and agricultural impacts of Brazil’s Forest Code. Environmental Research Letters, 13(7), 074021. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaccbb
Spatuzza, A. (2021). Renewables sweep board as low demand leaves Brazil power auction shadow of former glory. Recharge. https://www.rechargenews.com/markets/renewables-sweep-board-as-low-demand-leaves-brazil-power-auction-shadow-of-former-glory/2-1-1076108
Spring, J., & Paraguassu, L. (2021). Brazil’s Bolsonaro, under U.S. pressure, vows climate neutrality by 2050. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/bolsonaro-says-brazil-will-reach-climate-neutrality-by-2050-2021-04-22/
Spring, J., Samora, R., & Nogueira, M. (2021). Brazil minister warns of deeper energy crisis amid worsening drought. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-minister-warns-deeper-energy-crisis-amid-worsening-drought-2021-08-31/
Stabile, M. C. C., Guimarães, A. L., Silva, D. S., Ribeiro, V., Macedo, M. N., Coe, M. T., … Alencar, A. (2020). Solving Brazil’s land use puzzle: Increasing production and slowing Amazon deforestation. Land Use Policy, 91, 104362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104362
The New York Times. (2019, January 2). Jair Bolsonaro, on Day 1, Undermines Indigenous Brazilians’ Rights. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/02/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-president-indigenous-lands.html
The World Bank. (2022). World Development Indicators. The World Bank Group. Retrieved from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/reports/tableview.aspx
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2019). Global Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections & Mitigation Potential: 2015-2050. Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/global-mitigation-non-co2-greenhouse-gases/global-non-co2-greenhouse-gas-emission-projections
Unearthed. (2020). Bolsonaro sends army to the Amazon and undermines environmental regulators - Unearthed. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2020/06/24/bolsonaro-sends-army-to-the-amazon-and-undermines-environmental-regulators/?utm_campaign=Carbon Brief Daily Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue newsletter
Valle, S. (2021). Brazil’s record LNG imports draw U.S. supply away from gas-thirsty Europe. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/global-lng-brazil-idINL1N2QO35V
Vivid Economics. (2020). Green Stimulus Index - June 2020 Update.
World Bank. (2020a). COVID-19 in Brazil: impacts and policy responses.
World Bank. (2020b). Global Economic Prospects (June 2020). Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33748