Canada

This is a short assessment of the Canada’s 2035 headline target announcement. Canada submitted its 2035 NDC to the UNFCCC on February 12, 2025. The full analysis will follow shortly.

The Canadian government announced the headline ambition of its 2035 target on 12 December 2024 committing to reducing its emissions by 45–50% below 2005 levels by 2035. Canada’s 2035 target would fall short of what is required to be 1.5°C compatible. A substantial gap remains between the 2035 target, particularly for the upper part of the range, and the 1.5°C modelled domestic pathway (MDP). In fact, this gap has increased both in absolute and relative terms compared to the 2030 target, and this divergence from 1.5°C MDPs in the latest update raises concerns about the level of ambition of the new target.

The Climate Action Tracker's analysis excludes emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) from this target in order to keep the focus on decarbonisation of the economy (e.g. the phase-out of fossil fuels) and because of the often-massive uncertainty in estimates of Canada’s LULUCF emissions and removals.

We quantify Canada’s 2035 emissions reduction target excluding LULUCF as an actual 39–55% reduction below 2005 levels by 2035 or 336–458 MtCO₂e in 2035. To be 1.5°C compatible against modelled domestic pathways, Canada would need to reduce its emissions excluding LULUCF by 66% below 2005 by 2035, or to 256 MtCO₂e in 2035.

As Canada has yet to formally submit its NDC to the UNFCCC, there is still time for the government to improve its NDC prior to submission:

• Submit fixed, absolute emission reduction targets: Canada should communicate a fixed, absolute emissions reduction target for 2035 excluding LULUCF, and align it with our cost-effective 1.5ºC modelled domestic pathways. The current proposed range allows Canada to meet the least ambitious end while claiming to have achieved its target. The inclusion of LULUCF in Canada’s emissions reduction target range and underlying uncertainties in the data for the LULUCF sector lead to an unclear and difficult to quantify reduction target for the rest of the economy.
• Update 2030 NDC target: Canada should still revise and align its 2030 emissions target with 1.5ºC compatible modelled domestic pathways. The most ambitious end of the current 2030 target range of a 34−50% emissions reduction relative to 2005 levels (excluding LULUCF) is very close to the 52% cut below 2005 needed to align with a 1.5ºC compatible pathway. Under the Paris Agreement, Canada committed to increasing the ambition of its NDCs which includes its 2030 target. Updating the 2030 target could also be key in encouraging and motivating other countries to revisit and update their targets.
• Increase transparency on use of carbon credits: While Canada should primarily focus on its domestic reductions by decarbonising all sectors of the economy, if the Canadian government does intend to use carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement then it should transparently communicate how it intends to use them and to which extent. Currently, Canada leaves the door open to supporting mitigation efforts abroad through the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs). Rather than relying on carbon credits or unproven technologies like CCS, Canada should shift the focus to proven solutions to effectively decarbonise its economy and transition away from fossil fuels.
• Increase provision of climate finance: Canada should increase the climate finance it provides for developing countries to facilitate substantial emission reductions internationally and ultimately communicate this as part of its final NDC.
• Increase action to reduce domestic emissions: Finally, what matters most is action to reduce emissions in the real economy. Our current policy projections for 2035 show a significant implementation gap with currently implemented policies and actions only reducing emissions by 23% below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF). Urgent action will be needed to introduce, strengthen and implement policy mechanisms that turn this newly submitted 2035 target into reality.