Colombia

This is a short assessment of the Colombia’s 2035 target announcement. Colombia submitted a declarative version of its 2035 NDC to the UNFCCC on September 29, 2025. We will undertake a full analysis once this final version is released.

Colombia's 2035 target, submitted as a "declaratory target" in September 2025, is not aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, and the gap between its 2035 target and 1.5°C is bigger than its 2030 NDC.

In this new submission Colombia ratifies its 2030 target and sets a slightly more ambitious emissions reduction target for 2035. Our assessment finds that Colombia’s 2035 target is still not aligned with a 1.5°C pathway.

Colombia’s new target aims to limit national emissions to 155–161 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF) by 2035, representing a slight increase in ambition compared to the 2030 target of 169 MtCO₂e. As in its previous NDC, Colombia maintains an absolute target but now presents it as a range.

The CAT excludes emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) when assessing the targets. Under this approach, Colombia’s NDC for 2030 is estimated at 151 MtCO₂e, while the target for 2035 is estimated at 137-143 MtCO2e (both excluding LULUCF emission).

Although the 2035 target does represent a step increase in ambition compared to 2030, it remains misaligned with a 1.5°C pathway. Rather than narrowing, the gap between Colombia’s target and 1.5°C-compatible domestic pathways widens in 2035.

The 2035 target sits above a straight-line trajectory between the 2030 target and Colombia’s net zero target by 2050, which aims for a 90% emissions reduction from 2015 levels, with the remaining 10% balanced with national absorptions. Thus, we estimate Colombia’s total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in 2050 to be 23 MtCO2e. This indicates that unless ambition is substantially strengthened past 2035, Colombia will require steeper and more abrupt reductions in emissions later to remain on track with its long-term commitment.

The revised NDC also acknowledges that the central challenge for Colombia is not the level of ambition but implementation. Our assessment confirms it: current and planned policies are insufficient to meet the 2035 target, underscoring the urgent need to strengthen implementation as a pre-requisite for increasing ambition.

The submission also notes that a final version of the NDC is forthcoming, which will provide greater detail on sectoral and greenhouse gas coverage as well as the measures planned to achieve the target.

* Colombia’s NDC reports uses Global Warming Potentials from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).