Historical emissions from 1990 to 2019 are taken from PRIMAPhist (Gütschow et al., 2021).
To estimate emissions for 2020 and 2021, we applied a gas-by-gas approach: For direct CO2 emissions, we applied growth rates from Global Carbon Budget for the year 2019–2020 (Global Carbon Project, 2021), and the GDP growth rates from IMF for 2020–2021, assuming a directly proportional development of CO2 emissions. For all other gases, we assume a continuation of a 5-year trend. We assume that the impact of the pandemic on agriculture, waste and other emissions is minimal and so have extrapolated emissions for 2015–2019 up to 2021 using a 5-year average from historical emissions.
Current policy projections
We derive the range of projections under current policies according to the following method:
Lower end of the range: Historical data shows that per capita emissions have been largely stable in the past. We assume that this correlation remains and apply the average per capita emissions to UN population prospects until 2030.
Upper end of the range: We use projections from the IRENA RE Outlook for Egypt for energy related CO2 emissions. For all other emissions, we assume a continued trend of past emissions up to 2030.
We further investigate the impact of the RE targets on emissions. Meeting the target does not decrease emissions of the upper end of the range beyond the lower end. Even when assuming a lower electricity generation growth than in the IRENA reference scenario, the emissions reductions compared to the reference do not lead to lower emissions. We thus assume that the target is covered by our range.
Global Warming Potentials values
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series.