Ethiopia

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Assessment

Ethiopia’s Paris Agreement targetis one of the few that the Climate Action Tracker rates as “2°C compatible.” This rating indicates that Ethiopia’s climate plans are within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort; however, these plans are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Ethiopia’s mitigation efforts will focus primarily on the forestry sector, which is expected to contribute a reduction of 130 MtCO₂e compared to business as usual. However, we do not include the forestry sector in our rating, as it is difficult to analyse it with effort sharing approaches (due to data uncertainty and dependency on country-specific circumstances).

Ethiopia aims to increase power generation capacity by a considerable amount, mainly through several large hydropower schemes. However, their success is in doubt after controversy about sustainability, including the challenge of mitigating the considerable downstream effects on neighbouring countries. Beyond satisfying its own growing demand, Ethiopia aims to become an exporter of electricity, which would require investment in an extensive distribution grid.

Ethiopia has committed to becoming carbon neutral; however, its NDC does not specify a target year for the attainment of that goal.

Ethiopia’s target would lead to an emissions reduction of at least 64% below the Ethiopian business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030, when emissions, including land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), are projected to reach 400 MtCO₂e. The corresponding GHG emissions reduction target for 2030, excluding LULUCF, is 40% below BAU, or 185 MtCO₂e, which is the emissions level we used to rate Ethiopia’s emissions reduction target.

Full implementation of the NDC is conditional on finance, technology transfer and capacity building support under the framework of Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy (CRGE) strategy, which is integrated in its national development plan GTP II (Second Growth and Transformation Plan).

If Ethiopia successfully implements the measures outlined in the CGRE, it could achieve its NDC target in 2030. Uncertainty remains with respect to the effectiveness of the current policies in place. This uncertainty is reflected in the range given for current policy projections.

The basis of Ethiopia’s mitigation policy is its Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy, published in 2011. The strategy aims to keep greenhouse gas emissions low and build climate resilience, while achieving middle-income status by 2025. The strategy is based on four pillars: reducing agricultural emissions, protecting and expanding forests, expanding renewable electricity generation, and adopting energy efficient technologies in transport, industry and the built environment.

Along with the hydropower projects, Ethiopia is also part of the World Bank’s Scaling Solar program, andIn April 2019, the Ethiopian Ministry of Finance initiated the second round of tenders for up to 750 MW. The first round, for 250 MW, began in 2017. In March 2018, 12 project developers were invited to submit proposals. The results of the first round are expected in the Q3 2019.

Freight and passenger transport are the primary drivers of a projected 36 MtCO₂e emissions growth in the transportation sector from 2010 to 2030 under a BAU scenario. The Ethiopian government plans to increase fuel efficiency standards and promote the uptake of hybrid and electric vehicles; construct a renewable energy powered electric rail network; improve public transportation in the capital, Addis Ababa; and increase the use of biofuels.

The government also has a commitment to new electric rail, crucial to reducing emissions in this landlocked country. The Ethiopia-Djibouti electric railway began commercial operations in January 2018, but a second railway has been delayed due to a lack of finance. A new light rail transit system for public transport in Addis Ababa was completed in 2015, but a Bus Rapid Transport system will not be operational before 2021.

For full details see current policy projections section