Ethiopia

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Summary table

Paris Agreement targets

Ethiopia intends to limit its GHG emissions in 2030 to no more than 145 MtCO₂e including land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) (185 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF). Compared to a business as usual (BAU) trajectory, limiting emissions to that level equates to a reduction of at least 64% (40% excluding LULUCF). Ethiopia has committed to becoming carbon neutral; however, its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) does not specify a target year for the attainment of that goal.

The full implementation of its NDC is conditional on receiving international support. Ethiopia intends to sell international carbon credits. The NDC does not specify the extent of support needed, nor the amount of carbon credits to be sold; however, Ethiopia estimates that it will cost more than USD 150 billion in 2030 to implement its NDC.

2020 Pledge

Under the Copenhagen Accord, Ethiopia proposed several Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) in the power, transport, forestry, agriculture and waste management sectors (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2010b). Limited information is available on the status of implementation of the NAMAs (UNFCCC, 2019).

Long term goal(s)

Ethiopia intends to become carbon neutral (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2015). Ethiopia is in the process of developing a long-term strategy under the 2050 pathway platform – once this is submitted we will revise the 2050 target accordingly (2050 Pathways Platform, 2019).