We rate Ethiopia “2°C compatible.” While Ethiopia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) falls in the "1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible" range, we rate Ethiopia "2°C compatible," given the conditionality of its target. Ethiopia could be rated "1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible", if its target was unconditional.
The “2°C compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s climate commitment in 2030 is within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort but is not consistent with the Paris Agreement. This approach requires other countries to make deeper reductions and comparably greater effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Ethiopia’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C, and hence would still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. The 2°C compatible category refers to the 2°C goal adopted by the Copenhagen Agreement in 2009, now replaced by the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement, providing a historical reference point and bridge to the “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating.
The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in NDCs. If the CAT were to rate Ethiopia’sprojected emissions levels under current policies, we would rate Ethiopia “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible", indicating that Ethiopia’sclimate commitment is consistent with holding warming well below 2°C, and limiting warming to 1.5°C. Ethiopia’s current policies do not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and are in the most stringent part of its Fair Share range.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.