The Gambia

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Summary table

Paris Agreement

On November 2016, The Gambia submitted its NDC, with the aim of unconditionally reducing GHG emissions excl. LULUCF using renewable energy sources by 0.079 MtCO2e below BAU in 2025 (Government of The Gambia 2016). The Gambia would increase its GHG reductions to 1.42 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF in 2025 if it receives financial and technical support. By 2030, implementation of the unconditional mitigation targets would result in emissions reductions of 0.10 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF, while the conditional actions would lead to a 1.77 MtCO2e abatement. While The Gambia presents emissions levels for both 2025 and 2030 in its NDC, the document does not recognise the years after 2025 as part of the commitment. So, we rate the NDC according to the 2025 target and interpret the 2030 values as indicative projections.

The Gambia provides a set of quantified sectoral measures to indicate how it is planning to reach its targets between 2021 and 2025: Its unconditional target will be met by deploying renewable energy, and this target is estimated to abate 0.079 MtCO2e. Its conditional target is estimated to abate an additional 1.34 MtCO2e, and will be reached through improving energy efficiency in the power system, and in the buildings, transport, agriculture and waste sectors, as well as expanding its renewable energy target. The total expected mitigation from all of these actions would result in an emission level of 1.77 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF in 2030, which is equivalent to 37% below the BAU scenario.

In addition, The Gambia plans to unilaterally abate 0.28 MtCO2e in the LULUCF sector through afforestation by 2025. By 2025, it intends to abate 0.69 MtCO2e by replacing flooded rice fields by dry upland ones and by using efficient cook stoves to reduce the overuse of forest resources, conditional on international support.

The NDC indicated that there are “low” and “medium” emissions BAU scenarios. The NDC is relative to the low emissions BAU scenario. According to its NDC, The Gambia’s emissions are projected to grow by 3% annually until 2030. It indicates there are other scenarios assuming higher economic growth, but those have not been made publicly available.