Paris Agreement targets
NOTE: This section is based on The Gambia's first NDC submission and does not consider the updated NDC submitted on 12 September 2021. We will update our assessment of The Gambia later this year.
The Gambia’s NDC is comprised of a set of quantified sectoral measures for the period between 2021 and 2025 (Government of The Gambia 2016). Some measures are conditional on financial and technical support, others are unconditional. The Gambia also provided estimates for the extent of abatement from these measures for 2030. We have included that in our analysis as an indicative target for 2030.
The Gambia’s unconditional 2025 target will reduce GHG emissions by 0.08 MtCO2e below BAU (excl. LULUCF) and will be achieved by deploying renewable energy. Its conditional target is estimated to abate an additional 1.71 MtCO2e (for a total of 1.79 MtCO2e) and will be reached through improving energy efficiency in the power system, and in the buildings, transport, agriculture and waste sectors, as well as expanding its renewable energy target.
The Gambia also plans to unilaterally abate 0.28 MtCO2e in the LULUCF sector through afforestation by 2025. Conditional on international support, it will abate an additional 0.29 MtCO2e by using efficient cook stoves to reduce the overuse of forest resources.
By 2030, implementation of the unconditional mitigation targets would result in emissions reductions of 0.10 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF, while the conditional actions would lead to an additional abate of 2.07 MtCO2e (for a total of 2.17 MtCO2e). For the land sector, The Gambia would abate 0.33 MtCO2e and an additional 0.68 MtCO2e with support.
The total expected mitigation from all of these actions would result in an emissions level of 1.47 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF in 2025, which is equivalent to 55% below the BAU scenario. The NDC target value is calculated based on the conditional and unconditional mitigation actions and their estimated impact as listed in The Gambia’s NDC. It should be noted that at one point the NDC text mentions a reduction of 44.4% below the BAU scenario by 2025; however, we have used the 55% reduction target throughout this assessment.
The NDC indicated that there are “low” and “medium” emissions BAU scenarios. The NDC is relative to the low emissions BAU scenario. According to its NDC, The Gambia’s emissions are projected to grow by 3% annually until 2030. It indicates there are other scenarios assuming higher economic growth, but those have not been made publicly available.
The CAT rates The Gambia’s conditional indicative 2030 target (its “internationally supported target”) against modelled domestic pathways and its unconditional indicative 2030 target (its “fair share target”) against the fair share contribution as “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible”.
The CAT rates The Gambia’s conditional indicative 2030 target (its “internationally supported target”) against modelled domestic pathways as “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible”. The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that The Gambia’s internationally supported target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The Gambia’s internationally supported target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions.
The CAT rates The Gambia’s unconditional indicative 2030 target (its “fair share target”) against the fair share contribution as “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible”. The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that The Gambia’s fair share target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The Gambia’s fair share target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and is in the most stringent part of its Fair Share range.
Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.
Last NDC update
The Gambia updated its NDC update on 12 September 2021. Our analysis of this update will be available soon.
Net zero and other long-term target(s)
Our assessment of The Gambia’s net zero target, which is currently under discussion, will follow later in the year.