Indonesia

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Overall rating: Critically insufficient

Policies and action against fair share: Highly insufficient; < 4°C World

Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Critically insufficient; 4°C+ World

Unconditional NDC target against fair share: Highly insufficient; < 4°C World

Climate finance: Not applicable

Net zero target: year
2060; Comprehensiveness not rated as
Information incomplete

Land use & forestry: historically considered a
Source

Target overview

Indonesia submitted its 2035 NDC to the UNFCCC on 27 October 2025, setting a new 2035 target and outlining the emission pathways for 2030 and 2035. The new 2030 unconditional and conditional scenarios result in a lower absolute emissions limit compared to the previous 2022 Enhanced NDC. However, the new 2030 targets have not been formally adopted, as the 2035 NDC document specifies that the new target period covers 2031–2035 only. Therefore, we do not consider this a strengthened 2030 target and continue to treat the previously submitted NDC as the valid reference for the 2030 target. The CAT rates Indonesia’s unconditional targets as “Highly insufficient” and Indonesia’s conditional targets as “Critically insufficient”.

The updated 2035 NDC links to the Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience (LTS-LCCR) document, submitted with Indonesia’s 2021 NDC update. A net zero pathway is also included in the 2035 NDC, particularly under the Low Carbon Scenarios Compatible with the Paris Agreement (LCCP), which could be interpreted as the country’s conditional targets under both low and high economic growth scenarios.

INDONESIA — Main climate targets

2030 unconditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC	Reduce emissions by 32% against the 2030 BAU.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	1,737 MtCO₂e [134% above 2010]
Status	Submitted on 23 September 2022

2030 conditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC	Reduce emissions by up to 43% against the 2030 BAU.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	1,643 MtCO₂e [121% above 2010]
Status	Submitted on 23 September 2022

Net zero & other long-term targets
Formulation of target	Through its Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience (LTS-LCCR 2050), Indonesia aims to peak national GHG emissions by 2030, anchored by the FOLU Net Sink target of –140 MtCO₂e. By 2050, the FOLU sector is expected to reach –340 MtCO₂e, contributing to an overall national emissions level of 540 MtCO₂e by 2050 (including LULUCF). The strategy also explores pathways to accelerate progress towards net zero emissions by 2060 or earlier.
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF	730-764 MtCO₂e [2% above 2010 to 3% above 2010]
Status	Submitted on 22 July 2021

NDC updates

As stated above, we do not consider the new emissions pathway in the newly submitted 2035 NDC to be a strengthened 2030 target and continue to treat the previously submitted NDC as the valid reference for the 2030 target. For a more detailed analysis of the 2022 Enhanced NDC target ambition, please refer to our 2024 assessment.

INDONESIA — History of NDC updates	First NDC	2021 NDC update	2022 enhanced NDC	2035 NDC (also known as 2025 second NDC)
1.5°C compatible
Stronger target*	N/A
Economy-wide coverage
Fixed/absolute target

INDONESIA	First NDC	2021 NDC update	2022 enhanced NDC	2035 NDC (also known as 2025 second NDC)
Formulation of target in NDC	Unconditional target: Indonesia has committed to reduce unconditionally 29% of its greenhouse gasses emissions against the business as usual scenario by the year of 2030. Conditional target: Indonesia could increase its contribution up to 41% reduction of emissions by 2030, subject to availability of international support for finance, technology transfer and development and capacity building.	Unconditional target: Indonesia has committed to reduce unconditionally 29% of its greenhouse gasses emissions against the business as usual scenario by the year of 2030. Conditional target: Indonesia could increase its contribution up to 41% reduction of emissions by 2030, subject to availability of international support for finance, technology transfer and development and capacity building.	Unconditional target: The Enhanced NDC increases Indonesia’s unconditional emission reduction target to 31.89%, compared to 29% in the 1st NDC. Conditional target: Indonesia can increase its contribution up to 43.20% reduction of emissions in 2030 conditionally, subject to availability of international support for finance, technology transfer and development and capacity building.	The new 2030 unconditional and conditional scenarios result in a lower absolute emissions limit compared to the previous Enhanced NDC; however, it is not formally adopted, as the 2035 NDC document specifies that the new target period covers 2031–2035 only. Therefore, we do not consider this a strengthened 2030 target and continue to treat the previously submitted NDC as the valid reference for 2030 target.
Absolute emissions level excl. LULUCF	Unconditional target: 1,886 MtCO₂e by 2030 Conditional target: 1,691–1,789 MtCO₂e by 2030	Unconditional target: 1,886 MtCO₂e by 2030 Conditional target: 1,724 MtCO₂e by 2030	Unconditional target: 1,805 MtCO₂e by 2030 Conditional target: 1,710 MtCO₂e by 2030
Emissions compared to 1990 and 2010 excl. LULUCF	Unconditional target: 161% above 2010 emissions by 2030 Conditional target: 134–147% above 2010 emissions by 2030	Unconditional target: 161% above 2010 emissions by 2030 Conditional target: 138% above 2010 emissions by 2030	Unconditional target: 148% above 2010 emissions by 2030 Conditional target: 135% above 2010 emissions by 2030
CAT rating	*Overall rating:** Critically Insufficient	Internationally supported target (conditional): Critically Insufficient Fair share target (unconditional): Critically Insufficient	Internationally supported target (conditional): Critically Insufficient Fair share target (unconditional): Critically Insufficient
Sector coverage	Economy-wide	Economy-wide	Economy-wide
Separate target for LULUCF	No	No	No
Gas coverage	CO₂, CH₄, N₂O	CO₂, CH₄, N₂O	CO₂, CH₄, N₂O
Target type	Emissions reduction from BAU	Emissions reduction from BAU	Emissions reduction from BAU
Explanation why the target is a fair contribution towards the global goal	Yes	Yes	Yes
Followed guidance in Decision 4/CMA.1 on target transparency	Not applicable	Yes	Yes

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

CAT rating of targets

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against national pathways derived from downscaled global least-cost pathways that achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal (modelled domestic pathways). Indonesia will need support to reduce emissions to the level of its modelled domestic pathway.

Indonesia has put forward two targets in its NDC: an unconditional target that it plans to achieve using its own resources and a conditional target that requires international support. We rate Indonesia’s unconditional target against its fair share contribution and its conditional target against its modelled domestic pathway.

Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Critically insufficient

We rate Indonesia’s conditional NDC target, excluding the land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, as “Critically insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Indonesia’s internationally supported target in 2030 reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C temperature. If all countries were to follow Indonesia’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

This rating takes into account that Indonesia would need international support to be consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature limit.

Unconditional NDC target against fair share: Highly insufficient

We rate Indonesia’s unconditional target as “Highly Insufficient” when compared to its fair share emissions allocation. This rating indicates that Indonesia’s fair share target in 2030 is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit and lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions. If all countries were to follow Indonesia’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

The CAT’s assessment of Indonesia’s total fair share contribution takes into account its emissions reduction target and its climate finance.

In our 2024 assessment, we rated the unconditional NDC target against fair share “Critically Insufficient”. While this figure remains unchanged, the rating improves slightly in this update due to revisions to our fair share ranges and equity literature.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

We evaluate the net zero target as: Target information incomplete

The CAT does not yet evaluate Indonesia’s net zero target given the lack of more detailed information.

Indonesia is exploring scenarios that could lead to net zero by 2060 or sooner in its Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience (LTS-LCCR) document submitted to the UNFCCC in July 2021. A net zero pathway is also included in the upcoming 2035 NDC, particularly under the Low Carbon Scenarios Compatible with the Paris Agreement (LCCP), which could be interpreted as the country’s conditional targets under both low and high economic growth scenarios.

As a developing economy, Indonesia’s goal of reaching net zero for all greenhouse gases by 2060 can be considered ambitious and broadly aligned with what is needed globally to limit warming to 1.5°C, as outlined in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). However, the target relies on steep emission reductions after 2035, with minimal or no reductions before then and only a plateau around 2030. This delayed trajectory is why Indonesia’s near-term NDC targets are rated as “Highly Insufficient” or “Critically Insufficient”, even as the long-term net zero target is viewed as more ambitious.

For the full analysis click here.