Historical data are based on the most recent national inventory submissions reported in AR4 GWPs (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2022) . The historical emissions time series published in 2022 differs to an extent from the previous historical emissions time series. The main differences are in the energy and LULUCF sectors, with total emissions increasing by a range of 14 to 36 MtCO2e between 2004 and 2018.
To estimate emissions for 2021, we applied a sectoral approach. For energy and industry emissions, we estimated the emissions intensity (GHG emissions/GDP) from pre-COVID scenarios and applied it to 2021 GDP projections (see below). We assume that the impact of the pandemic on the agriculture, waste, and other sector’s emissions will be minimal, and so have extended the historical 5-year trend.
NDC and other targets
The NDC was quantified based on the latest national inventory submission (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2022) and information provided in the Fourth Biennial Report (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2019). Kazakhstan‘s unconditional NDC is an emissions reduction target of 15% by 2030 and its conditional NDC is an emissions reduction target of 25% by 2030 (both compared to 1990 emission levels). Since the targets include LULUCF, they were converted to values excluding LULUCF. As the historical emissions used in the CAT’s previous assessment (from 2020) slightly differ from this year’s historical emissions (see historical emissions section), there is a difference in the calculated targeted emission levels from the NDC between the two analyses. Based on calculations from the CAT’s previous assessment, the unconditional NDC equalled an emissions level of 324 MtCO2e in 2030 (excluding LULUCF). Based on the updated historical emissions data, the unconditional NDC (a reduction of 15% compared to 1990 emission levels) equals an emissions level of 331 MtCO2e in 2030. The conditional NDC (a 25% reduction compared to 1990 levels) equals an emissions level of 293 MtCO2e in 2030 (excluding LULUCF).
Current policy projections
Current policy projections stem from the “with measures” scenario from the fourth Biennial Report (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2019). We used the emissions growth rates from the “with measures” scenario together with the most recent pre-COVID historical emissions data point (2019) as reported in the latest country inventory data to determine pre-COVID current policy projections. We then adjusted these projections to take into consideration the impact of the pandemic (see below) and harmonised the scenario to 2020 reported emissions and our 2021 estimate (see above).
The written report and the Common Tabular Format (CTF) report on different GDP assumptions, having growth rates of 3.5% and ~4.2% until 2030 respectively (see the section on COVID-19 impact for how we addressed this difference). The “with measures” scenario includes measures and policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that have been taken or are planned to be adopted in the near future. The majority of these measures possess sufficient certainty to be treated as a current policy scenario in our analysis. These include measures to develop the alternative and renewable energy sector in Kazakhstan with aims for total installed capacity of renewables to reach 2,615 MW by 2025, the concept for the development of the fuel and energy complex which aims to put a 1 GW nuclear power plant into operation in 2030, as well as all new or existing processes related to energy efficiency improvements (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2019).
The Biennial Report’s “with measures” scenario includes a target to achieve a 10% share of renewables, in this case wind and solar power, in the country’s energy grid by 2030 (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2019). Following the achievement of the 2020 target of 3%, the government announced that they are raising the ambition of the renewables target to a 15% share by 2030 (Satubaldina, 2021a). We used electrical power demand and supply projections from Kazakhstan’s Green Economy plan to estimate the emissions reduction potential of this 5% increase (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2015). We first used future coal demand (in TWh) and projected emissions from coal in 2030 under the BAU scenario to develop a coal emissions factor. Since we assume that an increase in renewables will result in a decrease in coal use, we used the difference between coal demand under 10% renewables and coal demand under 15% renewables and the coal emissions factor to determine the emissions reductions potential. This resulted in a reduction of 4 MtCO2e, which was subtracted from total emissions under the BR “with measures” scenario to get the new current policy projection.
We applied a novel method to estimate the COVID-19 related dip in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and the development through to 2030. The uncertainty surrounding the severity and length of the pandemic creates a new level of uncertainty for current and future greenhouse gas emissions. We first update the current policy projections using the most recent pre-COVID-19 projections from Kazakhstan’s fourth Biennial Report . We then distil the emission intensity (GHG emissions/GDP) from this pre-pandemic scenario and apply to it most recent GDP projections that account for the effect of the pandemic.
Kazakhstan’s GDP dropped by 2.6% in 2020 and rebounded by 4% in 2021 (IMF, 2022). We use recent estimates from IMF for GDP growth from 2022 to 2027 (IMF, 2022). Since the most recent GDP projections only provide values for the next few years, we used the same GDP growth rate as pre-pandemic current policy scenarios for the remaining years up to 2030.
For Kazakhstan’s pre-COVID-19 GDP projections, we used the GDP growth rates on which the scenarios of the fourth Biennial Report were based. Kazakhstan reported on two different series of these GDP growth rates – the values mentioned in the written report differ from the values shown the Common Tabular Format (CTF) (growth rates of 3% and ~4.2% after 2020, respectively). As it is uncertain which series was used as an assumption for the emissions scenarios in the fourth Biennial Report, we applied an average of the two series to calculate the pre-COVID-19 GDP projection and the related emissions intensity.
Global Warming Potentials
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).