Kazakhstan

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

Historical emissions

Historical data are based on the most recent national inventory submissions reported in AR4 GWPs (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2020). The historical emissions time series published in 2020 differs significantly from previous historical emissions sources used before. The main differences are in the energy and LULUCF sectors, specifically in forest lands and crop lands emissions for the later. The reported 1990 emissions from the energy sector increased by 16 MtCO2e in the most recent historical data, which also affects Kazakhstan’s NDC target (see section ‘NDC and other targets’).

NDC and other targets

The NDC, 2020 and 2050 targets were quantified based on the national inventory submissions (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2020), and information provided in the Fourth Biennial report (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2019a). Kazakhstan has an unconditional NDC is an emission reduction of 15% by 2030 and its conditional NDC is an emission reduction of 25% by 2030 (both compared to 1990 emission levels). Since the targets include LULUCF, they were converted to values excluding LULUCF. As the historical emissions used in the CAT’s previous assessment (from 2019) differ from this year’s historical emissions (see historical emissions section), there is a difference in the calculated targeted emission levels from the NDC between the two reports. Based on calculations from the CAT’s previous assessment, the unconditional NDC equals an emission level of 319 MtCO2e in 2030 (excluding LULUCF). Based on the updated historical emissions data, the unconditional NDC (a reduction of 15% compared to 1990 emission levels) equals an emission level of 335 MtCO2e in 2030. The conditional NDC of 25% reduction compared to 1990 levels equals an emission level of 296 MtCO2e in 2030 (excluding LULUCF).

The Kyoto pledge is calculated based on the official documentation provided by the UNFCCC (UNFCCC, 2012b, 2012a). We calculated Kazakhstan’s LULUCF accounting quantities in 2020 for afforestation, reforestation and deforestation using the current Kyoto Protocol’s rules. Forest management was calculated also with current Kyoto rules, with the cap set at 3% of base year or 15% of forest management, whichever is lower.

Current policy projections

Current policy projections stem from the “with measures” scenario from the fourth Biennial Report (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2019a). We used the emissions growth rates from the Kazakh “with measures”-scenario together with the most recent historical emissions data point (2018) as reported in the latest country inventory data to determine current policy projections, not considering the impact of COVID-19.

The written report and the Common Tabular Format (CTF) report on different GDP assumptions, having growth rates of 3.5% and ~4.2% until 2030 respectively (see the section on COVID-19 impact how we addressed this difference). The “with measures” scenario includes measures and policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that have been taken or are planned to be adopted in the near future. The majority of these measures possess sufficient certainty to be treated as a current policy scenario in our analysis. These include measures to develop the alternative and renewable energy sector in Kazakhstan with aims for total installed capacity of renewables to reach 2,615 MW by 2025, the concept for the development of the fuel and energy complex which aims to put a 1 GW nuclear power plant into operation in 2030, as well as all new or existing processes related to energy efficiency improvements (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2019a). Since Kazakhstan relaunched its ETS system in January 2018, the expected mitigation impact is not yet included in the “with measures” scenario. The cap is set at a 5% reduction by 2020 below 1990 levels in specific sectors - the power sector and centralised heating, extractive industries and manufacturing and processing industry (International Carbon Action Partnership, 2020).

COVID-19 impact

We applied a novel method to estimate the COVID-19 related dip in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and the development through to 2030. The uncertainty surrounding the severity and length of the pandemic creates a new level of uncertainty for current and future greenhouse gas emissions. We first update the current policy projections using most recent projections, usually prepared before the pandemic. We then distil the emission intensity (GHG emissions/GDP) from this pre-pandemic scenario and apply to it most recent GDP projections that take into account the effect of the pandemic. To capture a wide range in post-COVID-19 GDP projections, we use more than one GDP projection when available, e.g. one from IMF and one from national sources. For Kazakhstan’s pre-COVID-19 GDP projections, we used the GDP growth rates on which the scenarios of the fourth Biennial Report were based. Kazakhstan reported on two different series of these GDP growth rates – the values mentioned in the written report differ from the values shown the Common Tabular Format (CTF) (growth rates of 3% and ~4.2% after 2020, respectively). As it is uncertain which series was used as an assumption for the emissions scenarios in the fourth Biennial Report, we applied an average of the two series to calculate the pre-COVID-19 GDP projection and the related emissions intensity.

For post-COVID-19 GDP projections, we used projected GDP growth rates that account for the impact of COVID-19 from the European Recovery and Development Bank (ERDB), Focus Economics, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Kazakh government (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2020; Focus Economics, 2020; IMF, 2019, 2020; PrimeMinister.kz, 2020b, 2020a). The projections from Focus Economics and the ERDB run until 2021. For the period between 2021 and 2030, they follow the pre-COVID-19 GDP growth rate projections. The national projections were available for until 2023. To extend the projection to 2030, we applied the pre-COVID-19 GDP growth rates on the remaining years. The IMF projections run until 2025. Again, we applied the pre-COVID-19 GDP growth rates for the remaining years until 2030.

Global Warming Potential values

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).

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