Kazakhstan

Overall rating: Insufficient

Policies and action against fair share: Insufficient; < 3°C World

Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Almost Sufficient; < 2°C World

Unconditional NDC target against fair share: Insufficient; < 3°C World

Climate finance: Not assessed

Net zero target: year
2060; Comprehensiveness rated as
Average

Land use & forestry: Not significant

Target overview

Kazakhstan submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2023 (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2023c). While the updated NDC includes significantly more detail and covers adaptation for the first time, the mitigation targets were left unchanged. Kazakhstan‘s unconditional NDC target still aims to reduce GHG emissions by 15% below 1990 levels (including LULUCF) by 2030.

Kazakhstan conditional NDC target to reduce emissions by 25% below 1990 levels (including LULUCF) by 2030. This target is subject to “significant additional international investments and significant grant assistance; access to an international technology transfer mechanism; co-financing and participation in international research projects, development of promising low-carbon technologies and initiatives to build local expertise” (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2023c).

Kazakhstan also has a net zero by 2060 target, which was enshrined in law in February 2023, but it has yet to submit a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.

KAZAKHSTAN — Main climate targets

2030 unconditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC	Reduction of GHG emissions by 15% by the end of 2030 relative to 1990 base year.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	Level of emissions to be achieved at home (domestic target) 318 MtCO₂e [18% below 1990] [1% above 2010]
Status	Submitted on 27 June 2023

2030 conditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC	Reduction of GHG emissions by 25% by the end of 2030 relative to 1990 base year.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	280 MtCO₂e [27% below 1990] [11% below 2010]
Status	Submitted on 27 June 2023

Net zero & other long-term targets
Formulation of target	Kazakhstan will reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF	45 MtCO₂e
Status	Enshrined in law on 02 February 2023, not yet submitted in LTS to UNFCCC.

NDC updates

Kazakhstan did not increase the ambition of its unconditional or conditional emission reduction target in its first NDC update, submitted to the UNFCCC on 27 June 2023 (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2023c). The government retained economy-wide emission reduction targets for 2030 of 15% and 25% (incl. LULUCF) relative to 1990 base year, equivalent to 318 and 280 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF), respectively.

The updated NDC does include significantly more detail, including on existing and planned institutional arrangements, some consideration of challenges relating to fairness and ambition of the target, and includes adaptation for the first time. It also indicates that efforts are underway to harmonise Kazakhstan’s net zero strategy with the next NDC update and low-emissions development plan.

KAZAKHSTAN — History of NDC updates	First NDC (2016)	NDC update (2023)
1.5°C compatible
Stronger target	N/A
Fixed/absolute target

KAZAKHSTAN	First NDC	NDC update (2023)
Formulation of target in NDC	Unconditional target: A 15% reduction in GHG emissions by 31 December 2030 compared to the base year (1990). Conditional target: A 25% reduction in GHG emissions by 31 December 2030 compared to the base year (1990), subject to additional international investments, access to low carbon technologies transfer mechanism, green climate funds and flexible mechanism for country with economy in transition.	Unconditional target: Unchanged Conditional target: Unchanged
Absolute emissions level [excl. LULUCF]	Unconditional target: 318 MtCO₂e by 2030 Conditional target: 280 MtCO₂e by 2030	Unconditional target: Unchanged Conditional target: Unchanged
Emissions compared to 1990 and 2010 [excl. LULUCF]	Unconditional target: 18% below 1990 emissions by 2030 1% above 2010 emissions by 2030 Conditional target: 11% below 2010 emissions by 2030	Unconditional target: Unchanged Conditional target: Unchanged
CAT rating	Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Almost sufficient Unconditional NDC target against Fair Share: Insufficient	Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Unchanged Unconditional NDC target against Fair Share: Unchanged
Sector coverage	Economy-wide	Unchanged
Separate target for LULUCF	No	Unchanged
Gas coverage	CO₂, CH_4, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, SF₆	Unchanged
Target type	Absolute emissions reduction from base year	Unchanged

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

CAT rating of targets

High resolution

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. Kazakhstan will need support to achieve the reductions needed within its borders.

Kazakhstan has put forward two targets in its NDC: one that it will achieve using its own resources and one that requires international support. We rate the country’s unconditional target against its fair share contribution and its conditional target against the level of reductions needed within its border.

Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Almost Sufficient

We rate Kazakhstan’s conditional NDC as “Almost sufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s conditional NDC target for 2030 is not yet consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Kazakhstan’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

However, the conditional target is very close to the upper limit of this rating category, meaning that a small change in the numbers could lead to a worse rating.

Unconditional NDC target against fair share: Insufficient

We rate Kazakhstan’s 2030 unconditional NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s unconditional NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Kazakhstan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Kazakhstan’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

We evaluate the net zero target as: “Average”.

Kazakhstan first announced its intention to reach “carbon neutrality” by 2060 during the Climate Ambition Summit in December 2020. On 2 February 2023, the President of Kazakhstan approved the resultant Strategy for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, thereby enshrining the net zero target in law. Kazakhstan has not submitted the strategy as an official long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC as of November 2023.

There is still significant scope for Kazakhstan to improve the transparency, target architecture, and scope of its carbon neutrality target.

For the full analysis click here.