Mexico

A year after the 2024 elections that brought Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum – a former climate scientist who promoted renewable energy and public transport as Mayor of Mexico City – to office, the direction of national climate policy is making a slight shift toward greater climate ambition. Mexico has announced a net zero target for 2050, submitted a 2035 NDC during COP30 that, for the first time, sets an emissions target implying that emissions would need to peak and begin to decline.

However, the plans for the energy sector – Mexico’s largest emissions driver – show contradictory strategies. On the one hand, there are plans to increase fossil fuel exploration, production, and use; on the other, there is an aim to gradually shift toward renewable energy.

Mexico is at a crossroads. Sheinbaum’s administration needs to turn missed opportunities into progress by making a just and equitable shift to renewable energy – and a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels – the hallmark of its government. Policy decisions taken in the coming years will be critical in either shaping the country’s energy transition or taking it toward a costly and risky carbon lock-in. Phasing out fossil fuels could reduce emissions, mitigate energy security risks and unlock substantial economic benefits from low-cost renewable energy.

Mexico’s overall rating has changed from “Critically insufficient” to “Highly insufficient”.

Mexico updated its National Strategy on Climate Change in May 2025, aligning long-term mitigation and adaptation priorities for the next 10, 20, and 40 years with the 2030 NDC and the 2050 net zero target announced at COP29. The government also submitted its new 2035 NDC at COP30, which sets more ambitious targets, narrowing the gap between the new targets and a 1.5°C – aligned pathway compared to the previous 2030 NDC targets. The new 2035 NDC includes goals to scale up renewable energy and implement sector-specific mitigation measures such as electrification of public transport and industrial processes.

At the same time, the government has identified increasing oil and gas production as one of its priorities, as reflected in the Mexico Plan (2025-2030) and the National Development Plan (2025-2030). This direction is further reinforced in the PEMEX strategic plan (2025-2030) – the state-owned oil and gas corporation – which projects rising fossil fuel production and exploration over the next decade. Expanding domestic fossil fuel output is presented as a strategic move for the country to improve energy security and reduce import dependence.

The current government’s emphasis on increasing oil and gas production stands in sharp contrast to its limited plans for renewable energy deployment. Shifting the paradigm to a just and equitable deployment of renewable energy sources over fossil fuels would not only allow Mexico to achieve its national emission reduction targets but also improve energy security by reducing the national infrastructure’s reliance on fossil fuels, which will still often need to be imported.

In many cases, renewable energy technologies are already more cost-competitive over their lifespans than those reliant on fossil fuels. Such a shift would also contribute to a global effort to reduce climate-related impacts – such as the severe, record-breaking heatwaves, droughts, and hurricanes that Mexico experienced in 2024 and 2025.

Mexico has a vast potential for renewable energy deployment, and its new administration could choose a different and more sustainable pathway. A study examining 1.5°C-compatible national and global pathways concluded that solar and wind generation in Mexico would need to increase sixfold by 2030, compared to 2022 levels, while existing fossil fuel infrastructure would need to be retired before the end of its operational lifetime. Ensuring the availability of clean electricity is critical to enable subsequent emissions reductions across different sectors through the electrification of end uses and activities.

Such a transformation of Mexico’s largest emitting sector would require:

1. bold institutional capacity to guide all sectors and actors through clear targets, giving institutional clarity and stability,
2. expanded grid infrastructure for transmission and distribution,
3. enhanced system flexibility both through energy storage and demand flexibility,
4. improved market design allowing new forms of participation and investment, and
5. a just transition taking along all stakeholders – including those employed by the fossil economy.

Positive developments since the last update include:

• New absolute climate targets for 2035. Announced during COP30, Mexico has announced new net absolute unconditional and conditional climate targets (including LULUCF), that would lead Mexico closer to a 1.5°C-compatible national emissions trajectory, compared to the previous 2030 NDC.
• Net zero target for Mexico in 2050. Announced during COP29, Mexico plans to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. As of January 2026, Mexico has not submitted an updated Long-Term Strategy (LTS) aligned with its net zero commitment to the UNFCCC.
• Updated National Strategy on Climate Change. First published in 2013, this strategy sets Mexico’s priorities for the upcoming 10, 20, and 40 years and needs to be revised every 10 years. This new version seeks to guide policy efforts in different sectors towards achieving the Mexican 2030 NDC and its announced 2050 net zero target
• The Sonora Plan intends to foster renewable energy in the northwest of the country and build the largest solar PV plant in Latin America.
• The 2023 National Electric Mobility Strategy aims to foster electric public transport, freight transport, private lightweight vehicles and alternative electric mobility.
• Norma 163 was finally published in January 2024 after five years delay. This norm sets emissions limits for new lightweight vehicles.
• Approved a mining reform to limit harmful practices by the extractive industries to indigenous people and the environment, including banning concessions in areas of water scarcity, shortening concessions to a maximum of 80 years, mandating restoration to land, establishing prior consent by the communities, and mandating a payment of 5% of profits to the communities.

While historical emissions stalled in 2021 after falling because of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic and energy crises, emission projections under current policies are expected to continue rising towards 2035, driven mainly by the transport and energy sectors.

In comparison to previous assessments, updated emission projections in 2030 are lower and we estimate that Mexico will achieve its 2030 unconditional NDC target, but miss its conditional one, under current policies. These targets, however, do not represent Mexico’s highest possible ambition as showcased by the Mexican think tank ICM.

To reverse its emissions upward trend, Mexico could:

• Back up the new 2035 climate targets with sectoral policies that consider existing mitigation potential, particularly in the power and transport sectors.
• Back up the new net zero target for 2050 by updating its Long-Term Strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC, to be aligned with the new commitment, and enshrining this target into law.
• Work towards a just transition to renewable energy and away from fossil fuels to achieve its long-held aspiration for energy self-sufficiency. Energy security, job creation and wellbeing are high priorities for the government. Implementing policies that promote an increasing use of fossil fuels would leave the country highly dependent on imported gas. Transforming the country’s energy system toward renewable sources could reduce this dependence and save the government billions of dollars, making use of the country’s vast potential for renewable energy.
• Stop investing in fossil fuel exploration, production and consumption to avoid carbon lock-in and instead focus on renewable energy. The newest Energy Plan projects continued growth in gas combined-cycle power plant capacity until 2039 – the final year covered by the plan – with these plants accounting for 19% of all new installed capacity until 2030. Continued investment in fossil fuels risks creating stranded assets and delaying the transition to renewable energy sources.
• Exclude fossil gas from clean energy classification which undermines the capacity of the country to reduce emissions by transitioning to truly clean and zero carbon energy sources. Mexico should focus on renewable deployment targets and phase out fossil capacity, avoiding using vague terms as clean energy sources that include the use of fossil gas.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Mexico’s 2030 climate targets and policies as “Highly insufficient”. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Mexico’s climate policies and commitments are not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit and lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions.

Mexico’s unconditional NDC is rated as “Highly insufficient” when compared to its fair share. Mexico’s conditional NDC and policies and action are rated as “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. To get a better rating, Mexico needs to set more ambitious climate targets and establish associated policies that can curb the growth in national emissions and set them on a downward trend.

Compared to the previously published version of Mexico’s assessment, the overall rating has changed from “Critically insufficient” to “Highly insufficient”. The rating changes are due to a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, which aligns our equity approaches with international environmental law (Rajamani et al., 2021) and therefore excludes studies based on cost-effectiveness; we also included additional studies to reflect the latest research available in the field.

We rate Mexico’s policies and action as “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Mexico’s policies and action up to 2030 will lead to rising, rather than falling emissions, and are not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Mexico’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Mexico’s new administration took office on October 1st 2024. President Sheinbaum’s election created high expectations of a potential shift of the country’s position, in terms of raising climate ambition, due to her previous role as a climate scientist. Yet, she also emphasised her willingness to continue with Lopez Obrador’s legacy, which was marked by a period of fossil fuels expansion.

This dual positioning has resulted in mixed signals during her first year, with major planning documents combining support for increased oil and gas production with calls for a gradual shift towards renewable energy. Key strategy documents – the Mexico Plan (2025-2030), the National Development Plan (2024-2025) and the updated National Strategy on Climate Change (a strategy for the next 10, 20 and 40 years) – contain positive elements such as a call to expand the deployment of renewables and long-term alignment with the 2030 NDC and the 2050 net zero target, but also maintain a strong focus on fossil fuel expansion.

Mexico’s new 2035 NDC, announced and submitted at COP30, improves ambition relative to the previous targets set under the 2030 NDC, including measures to scale up renewable energy.

However, government action continues to prioritise fossil fuel development, with the announced strategy for PEMEX (2025 – 2030) – the national oil and gas company – increasing fossil oil and gas production and exploration in the next years. Meanwhile, the power sector planning document (2025-2039) sets a 38.5% clean energy target for 2030 – a category that includes certain fossil gas-fired plants. Renewable deployment has slowed significantly in recent years, further undermining Mexico’s transition potential.

We estimate that Mexico’s GHG emissions under current policies and action will continue to grow through 2030. In comparison to our 2022 analysis, emissions projections under current policies are slightly lower, but this has no impact in the rating. This is attributed to new projected emissions under current policies for the integration of clean energy sources in electricity generation, based on the projections available in the current policies deployed under the electricity sector.

See the Polices and action section for a full sectoral breakdown of policies.

We rate the conditional 2030 NDC target of an up to 40% greenhouse gas reduction from a BAU baseline scenario in 2030 as “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Mexico’s conditional NDC target in 2030 is not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit when compared to modelled domestic pathways. If all countries were to follow Mexico’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

We rate Mexico’s 2030 NDC target of reducing all greenhouse gas emissions by 30% under a business-as-usual (BAU) baseline scenario in 2030 with its own resources as “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Highly Insufficient” rating indicates that Mexico’s unconditional NDC target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit when compared to its fair share. Mexico’s target is not in line with any interpretation of a fair approach to meeting the 1.5°C limit. If all countries were to follow Mexico’s approach, warming would exceed 3°C.

This rating has improved from the last update (in 2022) as a result of a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, which aligns our equity approaches with international environmental law (Rajamani et al.) and therefore excludes studies based on cost-effectiveness; we also included additional studies to reflect the latest research available in the field. Therefore, this change of ratings does not represent an improvement in Mexico’s 2030 climate targets.

The CAT rates what a country intends to do with its own resources compared to its fair share. As the 2030 NDC specifies within its unconditional target that 5% of the 35% reduction will be achieved through agreed international support for clean energies – category that includes electricity generation through fossil gas efficient cogeneration as part of the category definition under Mexican law – we have considered only 30% reduction from BAU in 2030 as Mexico’s target to be achieved with domestic means.

The land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) has been a stable sink in Mexico over the last 20 years. Notably, the 2030 NDC update considers this sector to be ‘central’ to achieving the updated 2030 climate targets. While emissions from forestry are considered in the BAU baseline and sinks are not, the NDC text mentions sinks from land use, and forestry are expected to achieve the target – without specifics on the expected contribution of the sector.

We evaluate the net zero target as “Target information incomplete”. Mexico announced its net zero target for 2050 during COP29. Mexico reaffirmed this commitment in its 2035 NDC. As of January 2026, Mexico has not submitted an updated Long-Term Strategy (LTS) aligned with its new commitment to the UNFCCC, nor has the target been enshrined into law. Mexico’s 2016 Mid-Century Strategy (MCS), while still formally submitted as its Long-Term Strategy (LTS), is not considered.

The CAT currently does not evaluate Mexico’s net zero target given the preliminary nature and a lack of more detailed information. The CAT will do so once further information is communicated by the government.

See the Net Zero section for further information.